Economic Reports 08/31/09
S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index June
Comp 10 +1.4% 153.2; Comp 20 +1.4% 141.86; the 2nd month of “rising” prices; Yoy -15.1% & 15.4%.
Durable Goods July
New orders for durable goods, + 4.9%. This was the largest increase in two years. Yoy new orders -22.8%
Much of the gain was due to very volatile aircraft orders, which more than doubled in the month lifting transportation +18%.
Excluding all transportation equipment, new orders +0.8%, the third sequential gain. Capital goods orders +9.5%.
Despite all the orders and shipments, manufacturers continue to draw down inventories which fell 0.8 percent to extend a long string of declines.
New Home Sales July
+9.6% at 433K; inventory pulled down to 271K the lowest since 1993; making supply at current sales pace 7.5 months. Median price -0.1%.
GDP Q2:09
-1% vs -1%; inventories and nonresidential investment were revised down.
The numbers suggest that there is more upside potential for third quarter GDP than previously believed. Growth is still likely to be softer than for a typical recovery.
Corporate Profits Q2:09 -17.7% vs -21.8% Corporate profits are down 17.7% on a year-on-year basis, compared to down 24.8% in Q1.
Personal Income & Spending July
Income flat; Yoy -2.4%; Spending +0.2%; Yoy +1.1%; Core flat; Yoy +1.4%. The consumer is not getting much fuel for spending.
Cash for clunkers boosted an otherwise bland month for consumer spending. Durables +1.8% on auto sales; non durables -0.3%; services +0.3%.
The report shows the consumer sector with little contribution to pulling the economy out of recession other than the boost from the cash for clunkers program.
Initial Jobless Claims 08/22
-10K at 570K; 4 week MA -4.75K at 566.25K; Continuing claims -119K at 6.133M; 4 week MA -27K at 6.242M
The Nattering One muses... Wednesday brought news that the Chinese State Council (the chief administrative authority of the federal government)...
was calling on local authorities to cut down on overproduction of steel and cement, as well as on parts of the coal, glass and power industries...
to curb overcapacity in these sectors. Overproduction & capacity will be the name of the game for some time to come.
In order to keep the masses employed, fed and sedated, the Chinese have been running factories at a loss for quite some time.
During these tough times, expect them to do so even more. This overcapacity & supply will drive deflation in durable consumer goods sectors.
The 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index registered its first seasonally adjusted monthly increase since prices peaked in mid-2006...
and all the major measures of U.S. home prices have now shown at least a month of rising prices.
Yet, compared with a year earlier, truck tonnage fell 10.4%... food for thought.
From a Naybob of Transport and reflecting our sentiments... that last graph on pvt wages and salary distributions is still pretty damned ugly.
In fact they are all ugly. We see the slightest blip up an we are high fiving ourselves. Amazing.
Comp 10 +1.4% 153.2; Comp 20 +1.4% 141.86; the 2nd month of “rising” prices; Yoy -15.1% & 15.4%.
Durable Goods July
New orders for durable goods, + 4.9%. This was the largest increase in two years. Yoy new orders -22.8%
Much of the gain was due to very volatile aircraft orders, which more than doubled in the month lifting transportation +18%.
Excluding all transportation equipment, new orders +0.8%, the third sequential gain. Capital goods orders +9.5%.
Despite all the orders and shipments, manufacturers continue to draw down inventories which fell 0.8 percent to extend a long string of declines.
New Home Sales July
+9.6% at 433K; inventory pulled down to 271K the lowest since 1993; making supply at current sales pace 7.5 months. Median price -0.1%.
GDP Q2:09
-1% vs -1%; inventories and nonresidential investment were revised down.
The numbers suggest that there is more upside potential for third quarter GDP than previously believed. Growth is still likely to be softer than for a typical recovery.
Corporate Profits Q2:09 -17.7% vs -21.8% Corporate profits are down 17.7% on a year-on-year basis, compared to down 24.8% in Q1.
Personal Income & Spending July
Income flat; Yoy -2.4%; Spending +0.2%; Yoy +1.1%; Core flat; Yoy +1.4%. The consumer is not getting much fuel for spending.
Cash for clunkers boosted an otherwise bland month for consumer spending. Durables +1.8% on auto sales; non durables -0.3%; services +0.3%.
The report shows the consumer sector with little contribution to pulling the economy out of recession other than the boost from the cash for clunkers program.
Initial Jobless Claims 08/22
-10K at 570K; 4 week MA -4.75K at 566.25K; Continuing claims -119K at 6.133M; 4 week MA -27K at 6.242M
The Nattering One muses... Wednesday brought news that the Chinese State Council (the chief administrative authority of the federal government)...
was calling on local authorities to cut down on overproduction of steel and cement, as well as on parts of the coal, glass and power industries...
to curb overcapacity in these sectors. Overproduction & capacity will be the name of the game for some time to come.
In order to keep the masses employed, fed and sedated, the Chinese have been running factories at a loss for quite some time.
During these tough times, expect them to do so even more. This overcapacity & supply will drive deflation in durable consumer goods sectors.
The 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index registered its first seasonally adjusted monthly increase since prices peaked in mid-2006...
and all the major measures of U.S. home prices have now shown at least a month of rising prices.
Yet, compared with a year earlier, truck tonnage fell 10.4%... food for thought.
From a Naybob of Transport and reflecting our sentiments... that last graph on pvt wages and salary distributions is still pretty damned ugly.
In fact they are all ugly. We see the slightest blip up an we are high fiving ourselves. Amazing.
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