Q309 Advance GDP Recalculated
From our earlier Q3 GDP post:
Excluding sales, production and inventories of automobiles, the economy grew 1.9% last quarter.
Ex auto GDP +1.9%; without the reduction in inventory adding 0.94%; real GDP is +0.96%.
The Nattering One muses... so without cash for clunkers we are down from 3.5% to 1.9%.
Further, without the inventory liquidation, we fall to 0.96%.
But NO, that's not all you get... just when you thought you were safe, it gets worse...
Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 2.5%, a sign that a "recovery" is anything but under way...
In addition, the $8K housing tax credit, boosted residential fixed investment 23.4% vs a Q2 decrease of 23.3%, which was its first increase since the Q405...
This added 0.53% to real GDP; deducting this plunges real Q3 advance GDP to a whopping +0.43%.
Take away our National Defense expenditures contribution (read the war on terrorism, which jumped 8.4% on some large military aircraft orders)...
which contributed +0.45% and we have negative 0.02% real GDP for Q309.
Again, don't look now, but without cash for clunkers, further inventory workoff & the housing tax credit, Q4 is probably going to have negative real GDP.
Yes, Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft (a key indicator of business investment in capital equipment) jumped 2% in September.
However, Yoy, total durable goods orders were down 19.6%. And further...
How much impact did the sunset of the $8K housing tax credit already have?
Sales of new homes decreased for the first time in six months, falling 3.6%.
Moreover, Yoy new home sales were 7.8% lower and the Yoy median sales price of a new home dipped 9.1%.
Remember, consumer spending or PCE is what this high fivin Q3 GDP blippin estimate is 70% based upon (2.36 of 3.4%).
How does this bode "well" for further "recovery" in Q4?...
when real disposable personal income decreased 3.4% and consumer spending sank 0.5% in September, the largest drop in nine months.
From a Naybob of Transport aka Where the Rubber Meets the Road:
I don’t believe the next quarter will look nearly this good. Cash for Clunkers is gone...
First time Home buyers tax credit gone, fuel prices rising, dollar declining, and the beginning of the big squeeze on commercial real estate loans.
Look for more banks to crap out, and some big ones like Citibank. Credit remains tight, consumer confidence is down and new home sales tanked once again.
As the old adage goes, it aint over till the fat lady sings, and she’s not singing and she’s not looking too fat right now either.
We hate to rain on a parade, but will gleefully break up this illegal assembly...
The Nattering One concurs, she's not even lip-synching yet.
Excluding sales, production and inventories of automobiles, the economy grew 1.9% last quarter.
Ex auto GDP +1.9%; without the reduction in inventory adding 0.94%; real GDP is +0.96%.
The Nattering One muses... so without cash for clunkers we are down from 3.5% to 1.9%.
Further, without the inventory liquidation, we fall to 0.96%.
But NO, that's not all you get... just when you thought you were safe, it gets worse...
Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 2.5%, a sign that a "recovery" is anything but under way...
In addition, the $8K housing tax credit, boosted residential fixed investment 23.4% vs a Q2 decrease of 23.3%, which was its first increase since the Q405...
This added 0.53% to real GDP; deducting this plunges real Q3 advance GDP to a whopping +0.43%.
Take away our National Defense expenditures contribution (read the war on terrorism, which jumped 8.4% on some large military aircraft orders)...
which contributed +0.45% and we have negative 0.02% real GDP for Q309.
Again, don't look now, but without cash for clunkers, further inventory workoff & the housing tax credit, Q4 is probably going to have negative real GDP.
Yes, Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft (a key indicator of business investment in capital equipment) jumped 2% in September.
However, Yoy, total durable goods orders were down 19.6%. And further...
How much impact did the sunset of the $8K housing tax credit already have?
Sales of new homes decreased for the first time in six months, falling 3.6%.
Moreover, Yoy new home sales were 7.8% lower and the Yoy median sales price of a new home dipped 9.1%.
Remember, consumer spending or PCE is what this high fivin Q3 GDP blippin estimate is 70% based upon (2.36 of 3.4%).
How does this bode "well" for further "recovery" in Q4?...
when real disposable personal income decreased 3.4% and consumer spending sank 0.5% in September, the largest drop in nine months.
From a Naybob of Transport aka Where the Rubber Meets the Road:
I don’t believe the next quarter will look nearly this good. Cash for Clunkers is gone...
First time Home buyers tax credit gone, fuel prices rising, dollar declining, and the beginning of the big squeeze on commercial real estate loans.
Look for more banks to crap out, and some big ones like Citibank. Credit remains tight, consumer confidence is down and new home sales tanked once again.
As the old adage goes, it aint over till the fat lady sings, and she’s not singing and she’s not looking too fat right now either.
We hate to rain on a parade, but will gleefully break up this illegal assembly...
The Nattering One concurs, she's not even lip-synching yet.
Comments