Economic Reports 12/13/09
Chicago PMI November
56.1 vs 54.2 Supplier deliveries +6.7 to 57.4 to indicate a significant slowing in deliveries and congestion in the supply chain.
Employment, at 41.9, indicates substantial month-to-month contraction.
ISM November
53.6 vs 55.7 acceleration in new orders and gains in backlogs.
However, Production fell back more than 3 points; Employment at 50.8 down more than 2 points from October's.
Inventories also weighed on the main index, down about 5-1/2 points.
ISM Services November
48.7 vs 50.6 slipping back into contraction (under 50).
Employment very downbeat with an index of 41.6 to show significant deterioration and combined with a similar reading in October point to a turn lower in trend.
Construction Spending October
Total Private +0.3%; Yoy -21.9%; Residential SFR +1.9%; Yoy -30.7%; Multi Unit Yoy -43.6%. What was the last vestige of durable economic activity is still a disaster.
The housing sector and overall economic growth are now being damped by weakness in commercial and public sector construction.
Productivity & Costs Q3:09
Non farm productivity +8.1% vs +9.5%; Unit labor costs -2.5% vs -5.2%.
The downward revision to productivity was primarily due to a downward revision to growth of third quarter output in the nonfarm business sector.
Unit labor costs continue to decline while productivity rises due to belt tightening and layoffs.
Factory Orders October
+0.6% vs +0.9%; durable goods orders -0.6%; non durable +1.6%; capital goods -2.1%.
Wholesale Trade October
Sales +1.2%; Yoy -9.6%; durable +0.8%; Yoy -11.2%; non durable +1.6%; Yoy -8.3%.
Inventories +0.3%; Yoy -13.5%; durables -0.4%; Yoy -16.7%; non durable +1.5%; Yoy -8.1%
Witness that real job creation depends on inventory building which has yet to take hold.
Business Inventories October
+0.2% vs -0.4%; first advance since Oct 08.
The build was centered in manufacturing. Wholesalers also posted a build while retailers, held their inventories steady. False positive? Time will tell.
International Trade October
-32.9B vs -36.5B exports +2.6%; imports +0.4%; exports are benefiting from a lower dollar. Industrial supplies imported fell.
The petroleum deficit was due to both fewer barrels imported and slightly lower prices.
Yoy overall exports -8.8%; imports -18.8%
Import & Export Prices November
Export +0.8%; Yoy +0.6%; Import +1.7%; Yoy +3.7%. The dollar's steep drop in November drove prices for imported goods sharply higher.
Up 2% so far this month, the gain in the dollar could limit foreign demand for U.S. goods.
ADP Employment November
-169K; Service -81K; goods producing -88K; manufacturing -44K; construction -44K; Large -44k; medium -57K; small -68K
Non Farms Payrolls November
-11K vs -190K; Unemployment 10% vs 10.2%; Revisions Oct -111K; Sept -139K; decreasing +159K.
Goods producing -69K; construction -27K; manufacturing -41K; temporary help +52K
Job losses in the construction, manufacturing, and information industries were offset by job gains in temporary help services and health care.
Initial Jobless Claims 12/05
+17K at 474K; 4 week MA -7.75K at 473.75K; Continuing claims -303K at 5.157M; 4 week MA -123K at 5.416M.
The increase ended five weeks of long term expiration of benefits being hailed as improvement.
Witness emergency claims +327K at 4.178M vs 729K at the same time last year.
56.1 vs 54.2 Supplier deliveries +6.7 to 57.4 to indicate a significant slowing in deliveries and congestion in the supply chain.
Employment, at 41.9, indicates substantial month-to-month contraction.
ISM November
53.6 vs 55.7 acceleration in new orders and gains in backlogs.
However, Production fell back more than 3 points; Employment at 50.8 down more than 2 points from October's.
Inventories also weighed on the main index, down about 5-1/2 points.
ISM Services November
48.7 vs 50.6 slipping back into contraction (under 50).
Employment very downbeat with an index of 41.6 to show significant deterioration and combined with a similar reading in October point to a turn lower in trend.
Construction Spending October
Total Private +0.3%; Yoy -21.9%; Residential SFR +1.9%; Yoy -30.7%; Multi Unit Yoy -43.6%. What was the last vestige of durable economic activity is still a disaster.
The housing sector and overall economic growth are now being damped by weakness in commercial and public sector construction.
Productivity & Costs Q3:09
Non farm productivity +8.1% vs +9.5%; Unit labor costs -2.5% vs -5.2%.
The downward revision to productivity was primarily due to a downward revision to growth of third quarter output in the nonfarm business sector.
Unit labor costs continue to decline while productivity rises due to belt tightening and layoffs.
Factory Orders October
+0.6% vs +0.9%; durable goods orders -0.6%; non durable +1.6%; capital goods -2.1%.
Wholesale Trade October
Sales +1.2%; Yoy -9.6%; durable +0.8%; Yoy -11.2%; non durable +1.6%; Yoy -8.3%.
Inventories +0.3%; Yoy -13.5%; durables -0.4%; Yoy -16.7%; non durable +1.5%; Yoy -8.1%
Witness that real job creation depends on inventory building which has yet to take hold.
Business Inventories October
+0.2% vs -0.4%; first advance since Oct 08.
The build was centered in manufacturing. Wholesalers also posted a build while retailers, held their inventories steady. False positive? Time will tell.
International Trade October
-32.9B vs -36.5B exports +2.6%; imports +0.4%; exports are benefiting from a lower dollar. Industrial supplies imported fell.
The petroleum deficit was due to both fewer barrels imported and slightly lower prices.
Yoy overall exports -8.8%; imports -18.8%
Import & Export Prices November
Export +0.8%; Yoy +0.6%; Import +1.7%; Yoy +3.7%. The dollar's steep drop in November drove prices for imported goods sharply higher.
Up 2% so far this month, the gain in the dollar could limit foreign demand for U.S. goods.
ADP Employment November
-169K; Service -81K; goods producing -88K; manufacturing -44K; construction -44K; Large -44k; medium -57K; small -68K
Non Farms Payrolls November
-11K vs -190K; Unemployment 10% vs 10.2%; Revisions Oct -111K; Sept -139K; decreasing +159K.
Goods producing -69K; construction -27K; manufacturing -41K; temporary help +52K
Job losses in the construction, manufacturing, and information industries were offset by job gains in temporary help services and health care.
Initial Jobless Claims 12/05
+17K at 474K; 4 week MA -7.75K at 473.75K; Continuing claims -303K at 5.157M; 4 week MA -123K at 5.416M.
The increase ended five weeks of long term expiration of benefits being hailed as improvement.
Witness emergency claims +327K at 4.178M vs 729K at the same time last year.
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