Peak What? An Attitude Adjustment
David Byrne: "And you may ask yourself, how did I get here?" To maximize your entertainment, we recommend turning up the volume and clicking on the links provided.
Below, our Nattering in regular typeface, some of the usernames have been changed to protect the i... we will let you fill in the blank.
Select comments from Peak What? Drowning in Oil Again
From David: "The great technical success of hydraulic fracturing (HF) is proof of Peak Oil. The only logical answer is that there is no more conventional sweet light crude oil to be found, i.e. Peak Oil." No more Brent/WTI exists to be found? On what planet?
More from David: "The evidence that world wide Peak Oil has already arrived, for conventional sweet light crude oil in any event, is well documented." UFO's have "arrived" and Ancient Aliens are "well documented" as well.
From Jerry: "And the price going up 400% with little new production increase proves normal crude has peaked." The usual "price contango proves a peak" nonsense.
More from David to his newfound brother in arms, Jerry: "It would seem that no matter how much data and logic is supplied, Nattering Naybob merely repeats a stock reply but provides no data or logic of his or her own." Due to the amount of data I supplied from IEA and EIA, some complained about the length of the missive. Selective memory? ADD?
From Jerry to his newfound brother in arms David: "David is exactly right. Peak crude happened whether you want to admit it or not. Sadly he just had to add the peak oil never happened bull that negated the rest. If you are going to write articles on peak oil at least understand what peak oil actually was being predicted instead of sputtering about confused because you don't in an otherwise good article. Especially if you challenge them to prove you wrong. Even your own data proves you wrong on peak oil. Yes, confused sputtering is apropos ... It happened no matter what anyone says, George. Even the data from the IEA & EIA is wrong, George. Be quiet, George is gonna say I done a bad thing.... Which way did he go? George.
Select comments from Peak What? Hubbert Was Wrong:
From T-Time: "Enjoyable read - what is not addressed, however, is peak SAND. Seems tons of this stuff is needed to support the US shale "revolution"...."
From Labradoodle: "This article says it all. R.I.P. PO theorists. Well done Nattering! A little depressing for we oil producers though."
From Jaweid: "What a refreshing piece of contrarian thinking. Compliments on an entertaining and illuminating article full of macro data when the POs are all lost counting trees -- sorry wells -- which each individually DO have a bell shaped (or not so bell shaped) production curve -- and then inflict the ultimate statistical blindness to extrapolate the individual data set to the aggregate. As for the other Quixotes tilting at the PO windmills, their PO battle cries will continue to be rehashed every time short-term futures speculations drive the oil price gyrations between 70-130 or whatever next peak price may be."
From Jack in NJ: "I don't see how a reasonable person can possibly conclude that oil will never peak. Yes, the predictions have been proven pessimistic... but to conclude that this party never has to end is specious at best." On the Nattering One's unreasonable-ness, nobody ever concluded that the party was never going to end.
From Miles Per Gallon: "Why would someone bother to write an “inciting” post like this; is the reason to get noticed in a world flooded with white noise? If it reinforces views, post it, regardless of validly. I've been a Peak oiler since 1975, and it has served me well in my investment activities. As to Peak Oil, we peaked already." Ok, peak oiler since 75 who has profited from the fraternities many peak predictions, and we peaked already. There's your "validity", subscribing to a self propagated falsehood "theory" which you profit from. I'd subscribe to Playboy too, if it would get me laid by the centerfold.
From Ebay Savior: "Very long-winded and short on any scientific evidence, which you mention but don't produce." The screen moniker says it all. I feel like MacReady in The Thing (1982) it seems like they are passing some kind of virus to one another.
And my personal favorite from a Mr. Rogers:
"This article is a disservice as it's nothing but an extended rant generated by a fulminating crank... This article does credit to Pravda and Goebbels. SA provides a forum for the embarrassing, profoundly ignorant rant that this article represents."
To which Carolina1954 responded: "Reasoned, thoughtful comments based on solid knowledge of the subject matter benefit SA readers. Fulminating cranks who rant irrelevantly about Pravda and Goebbels are just embarrassing, profoundly ignorant schoolyard name-callers. C. David Kirby"
From MonkeyLove: "Hubbert predicted that U.S. crude oil production would peak in 1970, and that's what happened." The screen moniker says it all, and the prophet has spoken.
Incidentally, Mr. Rodgers, MonkeyLove and all my peak critics threw me a party. Your not gonna believe how they treated me, and at the end I told them what I really thought about them. Here's the video... enjoy.
Select comments from Peak What? Dancing with the Devil:
From Mike: "Most people don't understand peak oil. Oil production DID peak in 1982. Producton did go up since then..." It peaked in 82? and "producton" has gone up since? Convoluted much?
From Peak What? Is It Safe?
From Ingot: "Oil is finite." In as much as your IQ is.
From BigSmitty: "I have really enjoyed reading your article. Your quotes and your sarcasm are very funny."
From Stepup: "You should pay me a penny." As Frankie said, "Jealousy... it's only the tango that you love."
From Polecat: "Enjoyed your romp over the flower beds and beads of intelligence during the 60'-'70.
Keep the good work coming."
From Cross: "Thanks for the article, Spiro. It's given me a good laugh, thanks again!"
From Frogmaier: "this was probably the best SA article I have read so far... I have not yet reached peak reading however." Perhaps the peak oil theorists have? For those who are "literarily challenged" and like believing in fairy tales, like the vanishing oil one, a public service message from RIF and the Public Library of Congress and the ASPR - Association for the Study of Peak Reading.
From Mgkg1: "We'll reach an intolerable level of CO2 before we runout of oil supply. At the end of the day, status quo will prevail until we're all forced to make the hard change. So, what say you Naybob - should we all turn with the blind eye?" And away we go...
The Nattering One muses... Does anybody notice a theme in the comments left by the theorists? This is the wrong attitude, and that is turning the blind eye. Some say we are already way past peak CO2 and we will be cooked long before we run out of oil. But that's not stopping me from flipping the oil barons the your #1 salute every time I tank up on cleaner burning and less expensive GPL.
Hubbert's theory breeds a downside, pessimistic, the tank is half empty, defeatist, paralytic fatalist attitude. People need to stop letting chicken little and the "sky is falling" rhetoric influence their attitude and outlook. Wah, wah, wah, the sky's falling and the oils running out. Wah, wah, wah, its the end of the world, the end is nigh, cry me a river.
Theorists are like the guy at the auction who can't keep his mouth shut about how valuable the nondescript current bid item really is. The fact of the matter, the more they yell and scream, the higher the price goes. Haven't the theorists cost the rest of us enough money? I'm verklempt, please, do us all a favor now, sit down, discuss amongst yourselves and shut up already.
My recent missives, amongst those from many others, contained empirical data from the very agencies that Hubbert's theorists constantly cite. The data presented from the EIA and IEA clearly and logically disproves the theorists cacophony of claims and plethora of peak predictions. Yet, what amazes is when confronted, these parroting acolytes keep repeating the same debunked falsehoods, over and over again. Four of my favorite sayings come to mind:
"Stupid is as stupid does." - Forrest Gump
"You can't fix stupid." - Ron White
"There are morons, look around." - Larry Summers
(The most efficient rejoinder to the efficient markets theory.)
However, in my ongoing row with this fraternity, the most applicable has been attributed to many, but the earliest example I can quote is:
Proverbs 26:4-14
verse 4. "When arguing with fools, don't answer their foolish arguments, or you will become as foolish as they are."
verse 5: "When arguing with fools, be sure to answer their foolish arguments, or they will become wise in their own estimation." My attempt at verse 5 has to date been valiant, but I must defer to Ron White's wisdom above and following the logic of Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez AKA "The Rat"...
"When you have to shoot, shoot, don't talk" and Blondie AKA "The Man with No Name"... "Every gun makes its own tune." This description of peak oil theorists and their acolytes from Trendlines:
If your stuck in a potentially bad situation, nobody needs Dr. Smith (Lost in Space) constantly pissing, moaning, whining and screaming about it. Like Chicken Little, his fear and emotional coping will never save the day or get any job done. From Peak What? Is It Safe? "Problem based coping is used when we feel we have control over the situation and can manage the source of the problem. Steps to problem based coping: Define the problem; Generate alternative solutions; Learn new skills to cope; Reappraise and find new standards of behaviour."
Oh behave! we need to learn new coping skills and behavior, AKA an attitude adjustment. It's a shame that Hubbert's theorist's efforts are wasted trying to prove an unprovable pessimistic downside view. If they spent as much time blowing the horn of optimism, how the glass is half full, how much we actually do have, and since their preference is toward the unproven, how much we have yet to discover and the future upside, then the price of oil might fall another $30 a barrel.
Just like Chicken Little, Dr. Smith and the guy at the auction... another analogy is the guy in the lifeboat who keeps screaming, "the rations will run out before we are found, we're all going to die." This is as useful as having a census taker canvass a cemetery, the rest of us want to throw this deadwood overboard, but we don't because he might later be a useful food source.
The title of one of my missives, Hubbert was Wrong. is not just a statement, its the truth. Theorist's need to get over this and quit performing a pecuniary social disservice that benefits the oil insiders (speculators, the oil cartel, the brokers) at the expense of many. Quit being the oil insiders bitch, man up, buck up, by the boot straps, positive attitude, stiff upper lip, take ownership, take control, no problems, just possible solutions to potential problems waiting to be found, and do what you have to do (like the guys at NASA and JPL) to get er' done.
Too many freaks, not enough circuses... The demise of mankind is grossly over estimated. Try to prove peak water, peak oxygen, peak oil or peak CO2, you can't, until its too late. That and the fact that the wheel in the sky keeps on turning is the only reality going on under the Big Top in the global three ring circus and freak show to which we are privileged enough to have front row center seats.
It has been proved over and over again, that the doom and gloom, end days, alarmist message of peak oil, is a myth, a boogeyman, a canard and a paralyzing fatalist's tool through which only oil insiders profiteer at the expense of the rest of us. The difference between our position and the theorists is, they authoritatively claim to have reality cornered with rock solid guarantees. Yet their foundation is built upon quicksand which much like their predictions is constantly shifting underfoot.
When you hear, it can't be done, nobody's ever done that, that's impossible, those are the magic words. Bring it on, and the pencil necked geek that is bringin it, better be bringin their best or they'll be gettin their ass carted home on a gurney, that is if their lucky enough to avoid the pine box. This is a never ending fight, which endeavors to contradict paralyzing fatalism, it is a WIP, TBD and only time will tell. Unlike the theorist's ongoing ruminations and fulminations that the "end is nigh", and much like the Playboy Centerfold analogy to which I would subscribe, in a display of patience and faith in the oft maligned abilities of humankind, I'll wait for the money shot. As Mr. Roth say's "You've got me captured, I'm under your spell, I guess I'll never learn." A Happy Thanksgiving 2014 to all.
Below, our Nattering in regular typeface, some of the usernames have been changed to protect the i... we will let you fill in the blank.
Select comments from Peak What? Drowning in Oil Again
From David: "The great technical success of hydraulic fracturing (HF) is proof of Peak Oil. The only logical answer is that there is no more conventional sweet light crude oil to be found, i.e. Peak Oil." No more Brent/WTI exists to be found? On what planet?
More from David: "The evidence that world wide Peak Oil has already arrived, for conventional sweet light crude oil in any event, is well documented." UFO's have "arrived" and Ancient Aliens are "well documented" as well.
From Jerry: "And the price going up 400% with little new production increase proves normal crude has peaked." The usual "price contango proves a peak" nonsense.
More from David to his newfound brother in arms, Jerry: "It would seem that no matter how much data and logic is supplied, Nattering Naybob merely repeats a stock reply but provides no data or logic of his or her own." Due to the amount of data I supplied from IEA and EIA, some complained about the length of the missive. Selective memory? ADD?
From Jerry to his newfound brother in arms David: "David is exactly right. Peak crude happened whether you want to admit it or not. Sadly he just had to add the peak oil never happened bull that negated the rest. If you are going to write articles on peak oil at least understand what peak oil actually was being predicted instead of sputtering about confused because you don't in an otherwise good article. Especially if you challenge them to prove you wrong. Even your own data proves you wrong on peak oil. Yes, confused sputtering is apropos ... It happened no matter what anyone says, George. Even the data from the IEA & EIA is wrong, George. Be quiet, George is gonna say I done a bad thing.... Which way did he go? George.
Select comments from Peak What? Hubbert Was Wrong:
From T-Time: "Enjoyable read - what is not addressed, however, is peak SAND. Seems tons of this stuff is needed to support the US shale "revolution"...."
From Labradoodle: "This article says it all. R.I.P. PO theorists. Well done Nattering! A little depressing for we oil producers though."
From Jaweid: "What a refreshing piece of contrarian thinking. Compliments on an entertaining and illuminating article full of macro data when the POs are all lost counting trees -- sorry wells -- which each individually DO have a bell shaped (or not so bell shaped) production curve -- and then inflict the ultimate statistical blindness to extrapolate the individual data set to the aggregate. As for the other Quixotes tilting at the PO windmills, their PO battle cries will continue to be rehashed every time short-term futures speculations drive the oil price gyrations between 70-130 or whatever next peak price may be."
From Jack in NJ: "I don't see how a reasonable person can possibly conclude that oil will never peak. Yes, the predictions have been proven pessimistic... but to conclude that this party never has to end is specious at best." On the Nattering One's unreasonable-ness, nobody ever concluded that the party was never going to end.
From Miles Per Gallon: "Why would someone bother to write an “inciting” post like this; is the reason to get noticed in a world flooded with white noise? If it reinforces views, post it, regardless of validly. I've been a Peak oiler since 1975, and it has served me well in my investment activities. As to Peak Oil, we peaked already." Ok, peak oiler since 75 who has profited from the fraternities many peak predictions, and we peaked already. There's your "validity", subscribing to a self propagated falsehood "theory" which you profit from. I'd subscribe to Playboy too, if it would get me laid by the centerfold.
From Ebay Savior: "Very long-winded and short on any scientific evidence, which you mention but don't produce." The screen moniker says it all. I feel like MacReady in The Thing (1982) it seems like they are passing some kind of virus to one another.
And my personal favorite from a Mr. Rogers:
"This article is a disservice as it's nothing but an extended rant generated by a fulminating crank... This article does credit to Pravda and Goebbels. SA provides a forum for the embarrassing, profoundly ignorant rant that this article represents."
To which Carolina1954 responded: "Reasoned, thoughtful comments based on solid knowledge of the subject matter benefit SA readers. Fulminating cranks who rant irrelevantly about Pravda and Goebbels are just embarrassing, profoundly ignorant schoolyard name-callers. C. David Kirby"
From MonkeyLove: "Hubbert predicted that U.S. crude oil production would peak in 1970, and that's what happened." The screen moniker says it all, and the prophet has spoken.
Incidentally, Mr. Rodgers, MonkeyLove and all my peak critics threw me a party. Your not gonna believe how they treated me, and at the end I told them what I really thought about them. Here's the video... enjoy.
Select comments from Peak What? Dancing with the Devil:
From Mike: "Most people don't understand peak oil. Oil production DID peak in 1982. Producton did go up since then..." It peaked in 82? and "producton" has gone up since? Convoluted much?
From Peak What? Is It Safe?
From Ingot: "Oil is finite." In as much as your IQ is.
From BigSmitty: "I have really enjoyed reading your article. Your quotes and your sarcasm are very funny."
From Stepup: "You should pay me a penny." As Frankie said, "Jealousy... it's only the tango that you love."
From Polecat: "Enjoyed your romp over the flower beds and beads of intelligence during the 60'-'70.
Keep the good work coming."
From Cross: "Thanks for the article, Spiro. It's given me a good laugh, thanks again!"
From Frogmaier: "this was probably the best SA article I have read so far... I have not yet reached peak reading however." Perhaps the peak oil theorists have? For those who are "literarily challenged" and like believing in fairy tales, like the vanishing oil one, a public service message from RIF and the Public Library of Congress and the ASPR - Association for the Study of Peak Reading.
The Nattering One muses... Does anybody notice a theme in the comments left by the theorists? This is the wrong attitude, and that is turning the blind eye. Some say we are already way past peak CO2 and we will be cooked long before we run out of oil. But that's not stopping me from flipping the oil barons the your #1 salute every time I tank up on cleaner burning and less expensive GPL.
Hubbert's theory breeds a downside, pessimistic, the tank is half empty, defeatist, paralytic fatalist attitude. People need to stop letting chicken little and the "sky is falling" rhetoric influence their attitude and outlook. Wah, wah, wah, the sky's falling and the oils running out. Wah, wah, wah, its the end of the world, the end is nigh, cry me a river.
Theorists are like the guy at the auction who can't keep his mouth shut about how valuable the nondescript current bid item really is. The fact of the matter, the more they yell and scream, the higher the price goes. Haven't the theorists cost the rest of us enough money? I'm verklempt, please, do us all a favor now, sit down, discuss amongst yourselves and shut up already.
My recent missives, amongst those from many others, contained empirical data from the very agencies that Hubbert's theorists constantly cite. The data presented from the EIA and IEA clearly and logically disproves the theorists cacophony of claims and plethora of peak predictions. Yet, what amazes is when confronted, these parroting acolytes keep repeating the same debunked falsehoods, over and over again. Four of my favorite sayings come to mind:
"Stupid is as stupid does." - Forrest Gump
"You can't fix stupid." - Ron White
"There are morons, look around." - Larry Summers
(The most efficient rejoinder to the efficient markets theory.)
However, in my ongoing row with this fraternity, the most applicable has been attributed to many, but the earliest example I can quote is:
Proverbs 26:4-14
verse 4. "When arguing with fools, don't answer their foolish arguments, or you will become as foolish as they are."
verse 5: "When arguing with fools, be sure to answer their foolish arguments, or they will become wise in their own estimation." My attempt at verse 5 has to date been valiant, but I must defer to Ron White's wisdom above and following the logic of Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez AKA "The Rat"...
"When you have to shoot, shoot, don't talk" and Blondie AKA "The Man with No Name"... "Every gun makes its own tune." This description of peak oil theorists and their acolytes from Trendlines:
"It is a psychosis. They are clinically depressed souls that seek the collapse of society so that they alone may rise in the aftermath. Many of them have long ago been marginalized and or disowned by family, friends, co-workers and neighbours. They dwell in Internet forums seeking affirmation from likeminded survivalists. Mostly of the Boomer demographic, many are dismayed that the idealism of their youth has not come to fruition. Some are burdened with the additional baggage of a failed marriage(s) and dotcom or real estate investments. The clock is ticking, and their future is bleak. The prospect of collapsing economies, fiat currencies, institutions and the rule of law allows them a glimmer of hope for a second chance at life. Surely their decades of preparation: the mountainside cabin, the rifles, ammo, pickup, chainsaw, lotsa cans and a ton of dry goods will be recognized and rewarded by the bestowal of leadership in a new "Amerika". These folks need pity, and lotsa help ... not patronization."Alrighty then! And they say the rhetoric of far too many within the peak oil fraternity comes off as extremist? But you have to ask yourself, are some people crazy or just plain stupid, or what?
If your stuck in a potentially bad situation, nobody needs Dr. Smith (Lost in Space) constantly pissing, moaning, whining and screaming about it. Like Chicken Little, his fear and emotional coping will never save the day or get any job done. From Peak What? Is It Safe? "Problem based coping is used when we feel we have control over the situation and can manage the source of the problem. Steps to problem based coping: Define the problem; Generate alternative solutions; Learn new skills to cope; Reappraise and find new standards of behaviour."
Oh behave! we need to learn new coping skills and behavior, AKA an attitude adjustment. It's a shame that Hubbert's theorist's efforts are wasted trying to prove an unprovable pessimistic downside view. If they spent as much time blowing the horn of optimism, how the glass is half full, how much we actually do have, and since their preference is toward the unproven, how much we have yet to discover and the future upside, then the price of oil might fall another $30 a barrel.
Just like Chicken Little, Dr. Smith and the guy at the auction... another analogy is the guy in the lifeboat who keeps screaming, "the rations will run out before we are found, we're all going to die." This is as useful as having a census taker canvass a cemetery, the rest of us want to throw this deadwood overboard, but we don't because he might later be a useful food source.
The title of one of my missives, Hubbert was Wrong. is not just a statement, its the truth. Theorist's need to get over this and quit performing a pecuniary social disservice that benefits the oil insiders (speculators, the oil cartel, the brokers) at the expense of many. Quit being the oil insiders bitch, man up, buck up, by the boot straps, positive attitude, stiff upper lip, take ownership, take control, no problems, just possible solutions to potential problems waiting to be found, and do what you have to do (like the guys at NASA and JPL) to get er' done.
Too many freaks, not enough circuses... The demise of mankind is grossly over estimated. Try to prove peak water, peak oxygen, peak oil or peak CO2, you can't, until its too late. That and the fact that the wheel in the sky keeps on turning is the only reality going on under the Big Top in the global three ring circus and freak show to which we are privileged enough to have front row center seats.
It has been proved over and over again, that the doom and gloom, end days, alarmist message of peak oil, is a myth, a boogeyman, a canard and a paralyzing fatalist's tool through which only oil insiders profiteer at the expense of the rest of us. The difference between our position and the theorists is, they authoritatively claim to have reality cornered with rock solid guarantees. Yet their foundation is built upon quicksand which much like their predictions is constantly shifting underfoot.
When you hear, it can't be done, nobody's ever done that, that's impossible, those are the magic words. Bring it on, and the pencil necked geek that is bringin it, better be bringin their best or they'll be gettin their ass carted home on a gurney, that is if their lucky enough to avoid the pine box. This is a never ending fight, which endeavors to contradict paralyzing fatalism, it is a WIP, TBD and only time will tell. Unlike the theorist's ongoing ruminations and fulminations that the "end is nigh", and much like the Playboy Centerfold analogy to which I would subscribe, in a display of patience and faith in the oft maligned abilities of humankind, I'll wait for the money shot. As Mr. Roth say's "You've got me captured, I'm under your spell, I guess I'll never learn." A Happy Thanksgiving 2014 to all.
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