2015 NFL Playoffs - Super Bowl XLIX
Legend
SU - straight up; ATS - against the spread; O - offense; D- defense; PT - points; YD - yards;
P - passing; R rushing; TOM - turnover margin; GA - giveaways; TA - takeaways;
TOP - time of possession; YPC - yards per carry; YPP - yards per pass.
This Year
2015 playoffs SU: Home 8-2; Road 2-8; Fav 7-3; Dog 3-7; Home Fav 7-3; Home Dog 0-0; Road Fav 0-0; Road Dog 3-7.
2015 playoffs ATS: Home 4-6; Road 6-4 ; Fav 4-6; Dog 6-4; Home Fav 4-6; Home Dog 0-0; Road Fav 0-0; Road Dog 6-4. Remaining home favs: SEA, NE
2015 playoff totals:
WC 43;47;36;44
DIV 66:48;47;37
CON 50;52
Our 2015 Playoff Picks ATS 4-6; SU 7-3
SU home favs 6-3; road dogs 0-1
ATS home favs 2-4; road dogs 2-2
Super Bowl 0-0 ATS; 0-0 SU
Champion. 0-2 ATS; 2-0 SU
Divisional 2-2 ATS; 2-2 SU
Wild Card 2-2 ATS; 3-1 SU
Note: Record with even or negative turnover margin is for 2014 season; total.
Super Bowl XLIX
Sun Feb 1, 6:30PM EST NBC
NE-SEA +2 O/U 48
Weather: Indoors
Away;Away: 5-3 ; 5-3
Last matchup: Oct 14, 2012 NE 23 @ 24 SEA
Turnover Margin: SEA +7; NE +14
Even or -TOM: SEA 7-2; NE 5-2
SEA O; PT 14; YD 13; P 30; R 1; GA -19; #1YPC; #2TOP; #14YPP; 47 sacks.
NE D; PT 8; YD 13; P 17; R 9; TA +28; #20TOP; #16YPP; #9YPC; 40 sacks
NE O; PT 4; YD 10; P 9; R 18; GA -14; #17YPP; #22YPC; #16TOP; #4 plays; weak run, 27 sacks
SEA D; PT 1; YD 1; P 1; R 2; TA +26; #2YPC; #3YPP; #2 yds per drive; dominant with only 38 sacks.
If you take care of the ball... #32 SEA and #30 NE in turnover pct. are playing in this game.
The four SEA losses (@SD, DAL, @STL, @KC) vs teams committed to the run +30 attempts and +135 yds. Will NE commit to the run? Probably not as the Patriots inability to run the ball 3.9YPC is problematic vs the NFL's #1 rush defense (3.4YPC; 81 yd/gm). The Pats run when they are leading and to keep opposing defenses honest. Blount gained 148 yds on 30 carries vs the Colts; vs the Ravens NE only had 14 yds on 13 attempts. SEA gave up 267 rushing yards to CAR and GB combined. Still, I expect Belichick to go to his teams strength, passing, and would be shocked if NE gained more than 75 yds rushing.
SEA held the high octane Packers to 6 points in the 2nd half and 300 total yds for 22 points despite five turnovers (6pts off turnovers). In the four NE losses (@MIA; @KC; @GB; BUF), the Pats offense was held to under 320 total yds. Seahawk opponents have been well served targeting their TE's: 11 TD's; 1 ints; QBR 87. Expect Gronkowski to split out wide with 3 inches and 70 pounds on injured SEA cornerback Sherman (arm). SEA S Earl Thomas has a separated shoulder, but will play. NE center Bryan Stork will play. Against the NFL's #1 pass defense (185 yds/gm), expect Brady to be pressured on deep routes (+15 yds) and utilize short routes for 200-250 yds passing.
Opponents have been too busy playing catch up with the pass to commit to the run vs the Patriots. MIA (169 yds) and KC (207 yds) committed to the run early in beating NE. Expect SEA #1 ground game (173 yd gm; 5.3YPC) to test Belichick's defense. SEA OT Britt and OG Sweezy will play. SEA should hold the rock 31 min+ while gaining 135-200 rushing yds on 30-35 attempts minimum. Wilson should get 150-250 yds passing on short routes with few attempts. The Seahawks laid 5 eggs in an aberration vs the Pack and lived to talk about it. In the next week they will be TO drilled silly and should be turnover proof for this game.
The spread has not been kind to us this year, but SU (7-3) has been. We have not made any BOLD LOCK (7-2 in college bowls) pro picks. Prior to the conference games, I had this game at SEA -3 which the game opened at. Within 24 hours the line took a wild swing to NE -2 with a boatload of early money going on the Pats. This was not a good thing for the books as many of these bettors have now straddled both sides of zero in anticipation of a close game and could double end the book.
The Seahawks were a 3 point dog last year and are not getting any respect as defending champions this year. I'm not seeing much difference between this years Patriots and last years Buncos (DEN had a more potent pass game) as both are dink and dunk pass oriented AFL (arena football league) teams that cannot defend the run. I don't expect NE to get in the early turnover hole the Bunco's did, then abandon the run, and be forced to go on 4th downs. Unlike DEN, the Patriot's should make a game of this.
Expectations, averages and matchups... NE 250 yds passing; 75 yds rushing = 325 total yds
The Patriots, since 2000 (Belichick/Brady era), in all games;
opponent runs for 135 yds+ and NE total yds -325; 9-24 .272
Given above and pushing NE to 400 total yds; 20-26 .434
Since 2000, as a favorite in the playoffs: 3-3 .500
The Patriots do not fair well vs a successful ground game, throw in a stout defense and they lose 57 to 82% of the time. Since morphing to a pass team (2006); with less than 350 total yds; the Patriots in the playoffs and SB 3-5. Last two SB appearances, the Pat's lost close games to physical NY football Giant teams that ran well and whose defense peaked late year.
The Seahawks, since 2010 (Pete Carroll era), in all games;
SEA runs for 135 yds+ and opp. total yds -400; 30-6 .833
Just limiting the opponent to under 400 total yds; 51-18 .739
Since 2010, opponent pass 325+ yds; 5-2 .714
Since 2010, as a dog in the playoffs: 5-0 1.000
When the Seahawks run well and hold their opponent under 400 total yds, they win 83.3% of the time. If the Seahawks limit their opponent to under 400 total yards, they win 73.9% of the time, it's the nature of the beast. Football is a game of inches and match ups, of which seem to keep favoring the Seahawks in this match up.
Coming back to the betting public swinging the line 5 pts towards NE, the fact that the public is laying this much on the Patriots is a red flag. I cannot begin to preach the value of betting against the public, as it has been incredibly profitable over the years. Knowing the above and getting +2 points with the defending champion, #1 ground game and #1 pass and rush defense, all of which win championships, warrants a BOLD LOCK, SEA getting +2 and to win.
SU - straight up; ATS - against the spread; O - offense; D- defense; PT - points; YD - yards;
P - passing; R rushing; TOM - turnover margin; GA - giveaways; TA - takeaways;
TOP - time of possession; YPC - yards per carry; YPP - yards per pass.
This Year
2015 playoffs SU: Home 8-2; Road 2-8; Fav 7-3; Dog 3-7; Home Fav 7-3; Home Dog 0-0; Road Fav 0-0; Road Dog 3-7.
2015 playoffs ATS: Home 4-6; Road 6-4 ; Fav 4-6; Dog 6-4; Home Fav 4-6; Home Dog 0-0; Road Fav 0-0; Road Dog 6-4. Remaining home favs: SEA, NE
2015 playoff totals:
WC 43;47;36;44
DIV 66:48;47;37
CON 50;52
Our 2015 Playoff Picks ATS 4-6; SU 7-3
SU home favs 6-3; road dogs 0-1
ATS home favs 2-4; road dogs 2-2
Super Bowl 0-0 ATS; 0-0 SU
Champion. 0-2 ATS; 2-0 SU
Divisional 2-2 ATS; 2-2 SU
Wild Card 2-2 ATS; 3-1 SU
Note: Record with even or negative turnover margin is for 2014 season; total.
Super Bowl XLIX
Sun Feb 1, 6:30PM EST NBC
NE-SEA +2 O/U 48
Weather: Indoors
Away;Away: 5-3 ; 5-3
Last matchup: Oct 14, 2012 NE 23 @ 24 SEA
Turnover Margin: SEA +7; NE +14
Even or -TOM: SEA 7-2; NE 5-2
SEA O; PT 14; YD 13; P 30; R 1; GA -19; #1YPC; #2TOP; #14YPP; 47 sacks.
NE D; PT 8; YD 13; P 17; R 9; TA +28; #20TOP; #16YPP; #9YPC; 40 sacks
NE O; PT 4; YD 10; P 9; R 18; GA -14; #17YPP; #22YPC; #16TOP; #4 plays; weak run, 27 sacks
SEA D; PT 1; YD 1; P 1; R 2; TA +26; #2YPC; #3YPP; #2 yds per drive; dominant with only 38 sacks.
If you take care of the ball... #32 SEA and #30 NE in turnover pct. are playing in this game.
The four SEA losses (@SD, DAL, @STL, @KC) vs teams committed to the run +30 attempts and +135 yds. Will NE commit to the run? Probably not as the Patriots inability to run the ball 3.9YPC is problematic vs the NFL's #1 rush defense (3.4YPC; 81 yd/gm). The Pats run when they are leading and to keep opposing defenses honest. Blount gained 148 yds on 30 carries vs the Colts; vs the Ravens NE only had 14 yds on 13 attempts. SEA gave up 267 rushing yards to CAR and GB combined. Still, I expect Belichick to go to his teams strength, passing, and would be shocked if NE gained more than 75 yds rushing.
SEA held the high octane Packers to 6 points in the 2nd half and 300 total yds for 22 points despite five turnovers (6pts off turnovers). In the four NE losses (@MIA; @KC; @GB; BUF), the Pats offense was held to under 320 total yds. Seahawk opponents have been well served targeting their TE's: 11 TD's; 1 ints; QBR 87. Expect Gronkowski to split out wide with 3 inches and 70 pounds on injured SEA cornerback Sherman (arm). SEA S Earl Thomas has a separated shoulder, but will play. NE center Bryan Stork will play. Against the NFL's #1 pass defense (185 yds/gm), expect Brady to be pressured on deep routes (+15 yds) and utilize short routes for 200-250 yds passing.
Opponents have been too busy playing catch up with the pass to commit to the run vs the Patriots. MIA (169 yds) and KC (207 yds) committed to the run early in beating NE. Expect SEA #1 ground game (173 yd gm; 5.3YPC) to test Belichick's defense. SEA OT Britt and OG Sweezy will play. SEA should hold the rock 31 min+ while gaining 135-200 rushing yds on 30-35 attempts minimum. Wilson should get 150-250 yds passing on short routes with few attempts. The Seahawks laid 5 eggs in an aberration vs the Pack and lived to talk about it. In the next week they will be TO drilled silly and should be turnover proof for this game.
The spread has not been kind to us this year, but SU (7-3) has been. We have not made any BOLD LOCK (7-2 in college bowls) pro picks. Prior to the conference games, I had this game at SEA -3 which the game opened at. Within 24 hours the line took a wild swing to NE -2 with a boatload of early money going on the Pats. This was not a good thing for the books as many of these bettors have now straddled both sides of zero in anticipation of a close game and could double end the book.
The Seahawks were a 3 point dog last year and are not getting any respect as defending champions this year. I'm not seeing much difference between this years Patriots and last years Buncos (DEN had a more potent pass game) as both are dink and dunk pass oriented AFL (arena football league) teams that cannot defend the run. I don't expect NE to get in the early turnover hole the Bunco's did, then abandon the run, and be forced to go on 4th downs. Unlike DEN, the Patriot's should make a game of this.
Expectations, averages and matchups... NE 250 yds passing; 75 yds rushing = 325 total yds
The Patriots, since 2000 (Belichick/Brady era), in all games;
opponent runs for 135 yds+ and NE total yds -325; 9-24 .272
Given above and pushing NE to 400 total yds; 20-26 .434
Since 2000, as a favorite in the playoffs: 3-3 .500
The Patriots do not fair well vs a successful ground game, throw in a stout defense and they lose 57 to 82% of the time. Since morphing to a pass team (2006); with less than 350 total yds; the Patriots in the playoffs and SB 3-5. Last two SB appearances, the Pat's lost close games to physical NY football Giant teams that ran well and whose defense peaked late year.
The Seahawks, since 2010 (Pete Carroll era), in all games;
SEA runs for 135 yds+ and opp. total yds -400; 30-6 .833
Just limiting the opponent to under 400 total yds; 51-18 .739
Since 2010, opponent pass 325+ yds; 5-2 .714
Since 2010, as a dog in the playoffs: 5-0 1.000
When the Seahawks run well and hold their opponent under 400 total yds, they win 83.3% of the time. If the Seahawks limit their opponent to under 400 total yards, they win 73.9% of the time, it's the nature of the beast. Football is a game of inches and match ups, of which seem to keep favoring the Seahawks in this match up.
Coming back to the betting public swinging the line 5 pts towards NE, the fact that the public is laying this much on the Patriots is a red flag. I cannot begin to preach the value of betting against the public, as it has been incredibly profitable over the years. Knowing the above and getting +2 points with the defending champion, #1 ground game and #1 pass and rush defense, all of which win championships, warrants a BOLD LOCK, SEA getting +2 and to win.
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