2015 NFL Playoffs - Wild Card
Legend
SU - straight up; ATS - against the spread; O - offense; D- defense; PT - points; YD - yards;
P - passing; R rushing; TOM - turnover margin; GA - giveaways; TA - takeaways;
TOP - time of possession; YPC - yards per carry; YPP - yards per pass.
Last Year
2014 playoffs SU: Home 6-5; Road 5-6 ; Fav 8-3; Dog 3-8; Home Fav 3-6; Home Dog 0-2; Road Fav 2-0; Road Dog 3-6.
2014 playoffs ATS: Home 3-8; Road 8-3 ; Fav 5-6; Dog 6-5; Home Fav 3-6; Home Dog 0-2; Road Fav 2-0; Road Dog 6-3.
2014 playoff totals: all 11 over 29; 8 over 39; 4 over 49; 2 over 59; 1 at 89
Our 2014 Playoff Picks ATS 7-4; SU 9-2
Super Bowl 0-1 ATS; 0-1 SU (DEN Home)
Champion. 0-2 ATS; 2-0 SU
Divisional 4-0 ATS; 4-0 SU
Wild Card 3-1 ATS; 3-1 SU
Did you know?
2008-2014 regular season games, teams with a negative TOM (turnover margin/differential) 308-1119-4 (.216); at home 183-489-1 (.273); on the road 123-630-3 (.165).
The premium on road mistakes:
Since 1970, playoff teams with a negative TOM 67-300-0 (.183); -2 or more 25-208-0 (.107); playoff road teams (includes neutral site games) 19-203 (.085); -2 or more 7-143 (.046).
In other words, since 1970 in the playoffs, a team making more mistakes than their opponent has lost the game 81.7% of the time. A road team making 1 more turnover than the host lost the game 91.5% of the time; 2 more turnovers lost the game 95.4% of the time.
Its a simple formula POT; Penalties, Opportunities (missed), Turnovers. Missed opportunities (Missed FG's, dropped passes & ints, did not covert TD in red zone, did not convert points after getting turnover, etc.) also play a large part. The old adage, the team that executes and makes fewer mistakes usually wins.
Wild Card
Note: Record with even or negative turnover margin is for 2014 season; away and home.
Sat Jan 3, 4:20 EST
ARZ@CAR -6.5 O/U 38
Weather: 54-48; Cloudy; 80% Precip; Wind 6mph
Home & Away: 4-4 ; 4-4
Last matchup: Oct 6, 2013 CAR 6 @ARI 22
Turnover Margin: ARZ +8; CAR +3
Record with even or negative turnover margin: ARZ 3-1; @CAR 1-4 (1-8 overall)
CAR O PT 19 YD 16 P 19 R 7 GA -23 - #3 plays, #4 TOP, runs well and plays keep away.
ARZ D PT 5 YD 24 P 29 R 13 TA +25 - bends, gives up yards, pass yards, not points.
ARZ O PT 24 YD 24 P 14 R 31 GA -17 - Anemic can't run.
CAR D PT 21 YD 10 P 11 R 16 TA +26 - gives up points, not yards, paying for turnovers.
Record means nothing, everyone is 0-0 starting the playoffs.The line opened at CAR -3.5, a lot of money went on CAR to move it to -6.5. ARZ D is opportunistic but ranks #26 in YPC, a concern vs CAR #7 ground game. CAR D ranks #27 YPC, ARZ rush is dead last #32 YPC. Under 38 looks good in what should be a low scoring defensive affair. When CAR are even or negative turnover margin, they find ways to lose. ARZ played in the toughest division in football. Panthers probably win by default (like the division), if they can hold on to the rock. With #3 QB starting, taking road pooch ARZ getting +6.5, CAR to win.
Sat Jan 3, 8:15 EST
BAL@PIT -3 O/U 46
Weather: 44-35; Cloudy; 90% Precip; Wind 11mph
Home & Away: 6-2 ; 4-4
Last matchup: Nov 2, 2014 BAL 23 @PIT 43
Turnover Margin: BAL +2; PIT 0
Record with even or turnover margin: BAL 4-3; @PIT 3-2
PIT O PT 7 YD 2 P 2 R 16 GA -21 - #2 pass YPP, #1 TOP
BAL D PT 6 YD 8 P 24 R 4 TA +22 - #3 rush YPC, #4 run D, #22 TOP
BAL O PT 8 YD 12 P 13 R 8 GA -20 - Balanced, runs well.
PIT D PT 18 YD 18 P 27 R 6 TA +21 - weak vs pass, rush YPC #25 a concern.
On paper, BAL have a better D; DT Ngata is back from suspension. Balanced BAL attack could exploit weak PIT D and keep them on the field a long time. PIT without 1300yd RB Bell, L. Blount fills in? #2 PIT pass offense vs underrated BAL #12 YPP D. Including last season, BAL are 6-10 on the road, and 0 for 3 in playoffs since 2002 @ PIT. Under 46 seems good in what could be a ball possession game. However, a track meet like Nov 2nd 66 pts could break out? Earlier PIT losses to Jets, Bucs and Saints (latter two @ home) make one wonder which team will show up. What have you done for me lately? BAL did not finish well and backed into the playoffs, while PIT finished 8-2. On momentum, taking PIT at home to win and giving -3.
Sun Jan 4, 1:05 EST
CIN@IND -3 O/U 49
Weather: Indoors
Home & Away: 6-2 ; 5-3
Last matchup: Oct 19, 2014 CIN 0 @ IND 27
Turnover Margin: CIN 0; IND -5
Record with even or negative turnover margin: CIN 2-2; @IND 5-1
IND O PT 6 YD 3 P 1 R 22 GA -31 - #5 pass YPP, weak run and #24 TOP
CIN D PT 12 YD 22 P 20 R 20 TA +26 - weak, #28 in plays, #18 TOP, #22 yards
CIN O PT 15 YD 15 P 21 R 6 GA -26 - Ben-gals run well, mediocre passing.
IND D PT 19 YD 11 P 12 R 18 TA +26 - fast pass O has them back on field a lot #1 in time and plays, but #11 yds.
CIN closed 7-3, with 2 losses to PIT; had 135 yards of offense and went 1-13 on 3rd down in the 27-0 loss to the IND. IND closed 11-3; losses to DAL, NE, PIT; defense allowed 7 pass TD and a 27.1 Total QBR @ home, both NFL bests; 4-1 in WC games @ home. In playoffs, CIN QB Dalton 0-3 with QBR 17; clueless Marvin Lewis 0-5. Taking IND to overcome mistakes at home to win and giving -3.
Sun Jan 4, 4:40 EST
DET@DAL -6.5 O/U 48
Weather: Indoors
Home & Away: 4-4 ; 4-4
Last matchup: Oct 27, 2013 DAL 30 @ DET 31
Turnover Margin: DET +7; DAL +6
Record with even or negative turnover margin: DET 2-2; @DAL 1-4
DAL O PT 5 YD 7 P 16 R 2 GA -25 - grind it out with #3 TOP
DET D PT 3 YD 2 P 13 R 1 TA +27 - Great D, run D.
DET O PT 22 YD 19 P 12 R 28 GA -20 - Lions pass, can't run.
DAL D PT 15 YD 19 P 26 R 8 TA +31 - #17 YPC; #27 yds per drive.
Somethings gotta give? DAL on 1st down; ran the ball on 68%; #1 in YPC (4.9). DET D #1 3.3 YPC on 1st down. What have you done for me lately? In playoffs Motor City Kitty's 1-11, 0 for 7 since 1993. DAL 1 for last 8. Who's the choke? DAL QB Romo is 1-6 with a 37.7 QBR in his previous 7 do or die games; DET QB Stafford is 0-16 on the road vs team that finished with a winning record. DAL D finished strong vs power O (PHI, IND), can they follow up? DAL opponents too busy passing to bother running. DAL O TOP keeps suspect D (living off turnovers) off field, not today. Taking road pooch DET getting +6.5 points, DAL to win.
Review: SU 4 home favs; ATS 2 road dogs; 2 home favs.
SU - straight up; ATS - against the spread; O - offense; D- defense; PT - points; YD - yards;
P - passing; R rushing; TOM - turnover margin; GA - giveaways; TA - takeaways;
TOP - time of possession; YPC - yards per carry; YPP - yards per pass.
Last Year
2014 playoffs SU: Home 6-5; Road 5-6 ; Fav 8-3; Dog 3-8; Home Fav 3-6; Home Dog 0-2; Road Fav 2-0; Road Dog 3-6.
2014 playoffs ATS: Home 3-8; Road 8-3 ; Fav 5-6; Dog 6-5; Home Fav 3-6; Home Dog 0-2; Road Fav 2-0; Road Dog 6-3.
2014 playoff totals: all 11 over 29; 8 over 39; 4 over 49; 2 over 59; 1 at 89
Our 2014 Playoff Picks ATS 7-4; SU 9-2
Super Bowl 0-1 ATS; 0-1 SU (DEN Home)
Champion. 0-2 ATS; 2-0 SU
Divisional 4-0 ATS; 4-0 SU
Wild Card 3-1 ATS; 3-1 SU
Did you know?
2008-2014 regular season games, teams with a negative TOM (turnover margin/differential) 308-1119-4 (.216); at home 183-489-1 (.273); on the road 123-630-3 (.165).
The premium on road mistakes:
- goes back to the 1970 merger
- is 32% more severe in the playoffs
- doubles when granting a second gift (-2 TOM)
Since 1970, playoff teams with a negative TOM 67-300-0 (.183); -2 or more 25-208-0 (.107); playoff road teams (includes neutral site games) 19-203 (.085); -2 or more 7-143 (.046).
In other words, since 1970 in the playoffs, a team making more mistakes than their opponent has lost the game 81.7% of the time. A road team making 1 more turnover than the host lost the game 91.5% of the time; 2 more turnovers lost the game 95.4% of the time.
Its a simple formula POT; Penalties, Opportunities (missed), Turnovers. Missed opportunities (Missed FG's, dropped passes & ints, did not covert TD in red zone, did not convert points after getting turnover, etc.) also play a large part. The old adage, the team that executes and makes fewer mistakes usually wins.
Wild Card
Note: Record with even or negative turnover margin is for 2014 season; away and home.
Sat Jan 3, 4:20 EST
ARZ@CAR -6.5 O/U 38
Weather: 54-48; Cloudy; 80% Precip; Wind 6mph
Home & Away: 4-4 ; 4-4
Last matchup: Oct 6, 2013 CAR 6 @ARI 22
Turnover Margin: ARZ +8; CAR +3
Record with even or negative turnover margin: ARZ 3-1; @CAR 1-4 (1-8 overall)
CAR O PT 19 YD 16 P 19 R 7 GA -23 - #3 plays, #4 TOP, runs well and plays keep away.
ARZ D PT 5 YD 24 P 29 R 13 TA +25 - bends, gives up yards, pass yards, not points.
ARZ O PT 24 YD 24 P 14 R 31 GA -17 - Anemic can't run.
CAR D PT 21 YD 10 P 11 R 16 TA +26 - gives up points, not yards, paying for turnovers.
Record means nothing, everyone is 0-0 starting the playoffs.The line opened at CAR -3.5, a lot of money went on CAR to move it to -6.5. ARZ D is opportunistic but ranks #26 in YPC, a concern vs CAR #7 ground game. CAR D ranks #27 YPC, ARZ rush is dead last #32 YPC. Under 38 looks good in what should be a low scoring defensive affair. When CAR are even or negative turnover margin, they find ways to lose. ARZ played in the toughest division in football. Panthers probably win by default (like the division), if they can hold on to the rock. With #3 QB starting, taking road pooch ARZ getting +6.5, CAR to win.
Sat Jan 3, 8:15 EST
BAL@PIT -3 O/U 46
Weather: 44-35; Cloudy; 90% Precip; Wind 11mph
Home & Away: 6-2 ; 4-4
Last matchup: Nov 2, 2014 BAL 23 @PIT 43
Turnover Margin: BAL +2; PIT 0
Record with even or turnover margin: BAL 4-3; @PIT 3-2
PIT O PT 7 YD 2 P 2 R 16 GA -21 - #2 pass YPP, #1 TOP
BAL D PT 6 YD 8 P 24 R 4 TA +22 - #3 rush YPC, #4 run D, #22 TOP
BAL O PT 8 YD 12 P 13 R 8 GA -20 - Balanced, runs well.
PIT D PT 18 YD 18 P 27 R 6 TA +21 - weak vs pass, rush YPC #25 a concern.
On paper, BAL have a better D; DT Ngata is back from suspension. Balanced BAL attack could exploit weak PIT D and keep them on the field a long time. PIT without 1300yd RB Bell, L. Blount fills in? #2 PIT pass offense vs underrated BAL #12 YPP D. Including last season, BAL are 6-10 on the road, and 0 for 3 in playoffs since 2002 @ PIT. Under 46 seems good in what could be a ball possession game. However, a track meet like Nov 2nd 66 pts could break out? Earlier PIT losses to Jets, Bucs and Saints (latter two @ home) make one wonder which team will show up. What have you done for me lately? BAL did not finish well and backed into the playoffs, while PIT finished 8-2. On momentum, taking PIT at home to win and giving -3.
Sun Jan 4, 1:05 EST
CIN@IND -3 O/U 49
Weather: Indoors
Home & Away: 6-2 ; 5-3
Last matchup: Oct 19, 2014 CIN 0 @ IND 27
Turnover Margin: CIN 0; IND -5
Record with even or negative turnover margin: CIN 2-2; @IND 5-1
IND O PT 6 YD 3 P 1 R 22 GA -31 - #5 pass YPP, weak run and #24 TOP
CIN D PT 12 YD 22 P 20 R 20 TA +26 - weak, #28 in plays, #18 TOP, #22 yards
CIN O PT 15 YD 15 P 21 R 6 GA -26 - Ben-gals run well, mediocre passing.
IND D PT 19 YD 11 P 12 R 18 TA +26 - fast pass O has them back on field a lot #1 in time and plays, but #11 yds.
CIN closed 7-3, with 2 losses to PIT; had 135 yards of offense and went 1-13 on 3rd down in the 27-0 loss to the IND. IND closed 11-3; losses to DAL, NE, PIT; defense allowed 7 pass TD and a 27.1 Total QBR @ home, both NFL bests; 4-1 in WC games @ home. In playoffs, CIN QB Dalton 0-3 with QBR 17; clueless Marvin Lewis 0-5. Taking IND to overcome mistakes at home to win and giving -3.
Sun Jan 4, 4:40 EST
DET@DAL -6.5 O/U 48
Weather: Indoors
Home & Away: 4-4 ; 4-4
Last matchup: Oct 27, 2013 DAL 30 @ DET 31
Turnover Margin: DET +7; DAL +6
Record with even or negative turnover margin: DET 2-2; @DAL 1-4
DAL O PT 5 YD 7 P 16 R 2 GA -25 - grind it out with #3 TOP
DET D PT 3 YD 2 P 13 R 1 TA +27 - Great D, run D.
DET O PT 22 YD 19 P 12 R 28 GA -20 - Lions pass, can't run.
DAL D PT 15 YD 19 P 26 R 8 TA +31 - #17 YPC; #27 yds per drive.
Somethings gotta give? DAL on 1st down; ran the ball on 68%; #1 in YPC (4.9). DET D #1 3.3 YPC on 1st down. What have you done for me lately? In playoffs Motor City Kitty's 1-11, 0 for 7 since 1993. DAL 1 for last 8. Who's the choke? DAL QB Romo is 1-6 with a 37.7 QBR in his previous 7 do or die games; DET QB Stafford is 0-16 on the road vs team that finished with a winning record. DAL D finished strong vs power O (PHI, IND), can they follow up? DAL opponents too busy passing to bother running. DAL O TOP keeps suspect D (living off turnovers) off field, not today. Taking road pooch DET getting +6.5 points, DAL to win.
Review: SU 4 home favs; ATS 2 road dogs; 2 home favs.
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