Contrarian Views
At Mercenary Traders latest Contrarian Advisor comments
" agree that much of the Street is now on the dollar bull bandwagon. I am a big dollar bull expecting the index to rise to 120 and even 140 in the next 6-12 months. That will be a real problem not only for the U.S. economy but for the emerging market economies where capital will leave for the dollar. Ultimately I expect it to force China to de-peg from the dollar and devalue the renminbi. That said, there are so many dollar bulls that I wouldn't be surprised to see the dollar pull back here to at least 94 and maybe as low as 90-91. That would send a lot of FX desks scrambling. Good time for a counter-trend move in currencies and commodities before resuming the primary trend which is much higher dollar and much lower commodities. If the dollar continues to move higher here without a pullback, it will be a signal that a huge global unwind is imminent."
We Nattered: Most astute and cogent. You get it. Watch the dollar as it runs through commodities like a raped ape. Dec commod flash crash coming, continued contractionary economic trajectory, Q4 slowdown, potential "recession".
No dollar pullback? Keep your eyes peeled to the sky, as it could be a brand name that pancakes one. Yamaha, Steinway.... or someone that can't generate enough cash on riskier paper fire sales to clear their repo and gets caught holding the bag.
I am in process with a seven part series on this and other related factors. Good luck.
http://seekingalpha.co...
" agree that much of the Street is now on the dollar bull bandwagon. I am a big dollar bull expecting the index to rise to 120 and even 140 in the next 6-12 months. That will be a real problem not only for the U.S. economy but for the emerging market economies where capital will leave for the dollar. Ultimately I expect it to force China to de-peg from the dollar and devalue the renminbi. That said, there are so many dollar bulls that I wouldn't be surprised to see the dollar pull back here to at least 94 and maybe as low as 90-91. That would send a lot of FX desks scrambling. Good time for a counter-trend move in currencies and commodities before resuming the primary trend which is much higher dollar and much lower commodities. If the dollar continues to move higher here without a pullback, it will be a signal that a huge global unwind is imminent."
We Nattered: Most astute and cogent. You get it. Watch the dollar as it runs through commodities like a raped ape. Dec commod flash crash coming, continued contractionary economic trajectory, Q4 slowdown, potential "recession".
Contrarian shot back... "Naybob, much more than a slowdown coming. I expect a global bust that will be steeper and faster than what we experienced in 2008/9. We will see a global financial system in freefall with no TARP to stem the fall. I doubt we get to December before it hits. Once the dollar breaks above its March highs, it will be a signal that the deflationary bust is imminent. Meantime, if the dollar and commodities can mount moves counter to their primary trends here, we can put off the inevitable bust until later this fall. Gotta turn soon though or we'll be seeing the bust even sooner."
We PMed Contrarian... Contrarian, "much more than a slowdown coming. " And how, I just tone down the rhetoric so the cheerleaders won't get too miffed. My standard disclaimer: "For the ostrich's out there who will parrot apoplectic "chicken little, yelling doomsday again", we are not. Just pointing out additional subtleties, so carry on as you were. For those in tune on the wavelength, opportunities could abound."
Too many factors to list here, I have in my missives, all on concomitant contractionary economic trajectory. Big tells, both required reserves and 3 month eurodollar futures point to an imminent equities market departure coming in Sept/Oct. the stage is being set now. Dec commodities flash crash, if not Q3, then Q4 economic contraction. Since there never was a meaningful recovery and we have no legs to stand on, as Howard Cosell said: down goes Frazier, down goes Frazier. The rest will play out into 2016.
This is a fait accompli, what the Fed does or does not do matters not. If they raise, their screwed, no real legs to fall back on, and they know it. They can't lower, and if they could go negative, their screwed. The longer they wait to for a "recovery" to raise, which cannot happen under these circumstances, the more screwed they are. So they may as well bite the bullet, take the hit and endure the pain, start raising now and get it over with. The problem is they, along with the public, have fallen victim to their own econometric falsity and the hook in mouth media narrative. Main Street has been pimped out for Wall Street, and shes about to collapse.
Oh yeah, its gonna be a real Dean Martin Xmas Party, we got Lola Falana, Topo Gigio and The Fabulous Golddiggers, so no flippin.
We PMed Contrarian... Contrarian, "much more than a slowdown coming. " And how, I just tone down the rhetoric so the cheerleaders won't get too miffed. My standard disclaimer: "For the ostrich's out there who will parrot apoplectic "chicken little, yelling doomsday again", we are not. Just pointing out additional subtleties, so carry on as you were. For those in tune on the wavelength, opportunities could abound."
Too many factors to list here, I have in my missives, all on concomitant contractionary economic trajectory. Big tells, both required reserves and 3 month eurodollar futures point to an imminent equities market departure coming in Sept/Oct. the stage is being set now. Dec commodities flash crash, if not Q3, then Q4 economic contraction. Since there never was a meaningful recovery and we have no legs to stand on, as Howard Cosell said: down goes Frazier, down goes Frazier. The rest will play out into 2016.
This is a fait accompli, what the Fed does or does not do matters not. If they raise, their screwed, no real legs to fall back on, and they know it. They can't lower, and if they could go negative, their screwed. The longer they wait to for a "recovery" to raise, which cannot happen under these circumstances, the more screwed they are. So they may as well bite the bullet, take the hit and endure the pain, start raising now and get it over with. The problem is they, along with the public, have fallen victim to their own econometric falsity and the hook in mouth media narrative. Main Street has been pimped out for Wall Street, and shes about to collapse.
Oh yeah, its gonna be a real Dean Martin Xmas Party, we got Lola Falana, Topo Gigio and The Fabulous Golddiggers, so no flippin.
Comments