Contractions In Money Flows And Market Liquidity - Part 7

Summary

  • A discussion of potential market inflection points and the perfect storm.
  • Along with rising risk premia, multiple measures of money flow; market liquidity and economic conditions are in a contractionary trajectory.
  • The potential for a dollar spike, commodities "flash crash" in December and further economic downturn exist.
  • Hyperinflation, Inflation, Deflation, Stagflation; The Sting?.
For a better understanding, I highly recommend reviewing the potential narrative and charts laid out in Part 1Part 2Part 3Part 4Part 5 and Part 6of this missive.
From The Sting (1973). Doyle Lonnegan is about to lose a small fortune, but he will feel lucky as Mr. Lonnegan is about to have an experience that proves:There's what you know, what you don't know and what you think you know. And more often than not it is the latter that comes back to bite you the hardest in the end.
Set at the height of the depression in 1936, in an illegal Southside Chicago horse parlor, in which Doyle Lonnegan is Henry Gondorff and Johnny Hooker's, mark or pigeon. Lonnegan just placed a $500,000 bet on a SURE thing from a tipster who has inside information and is in on the "fix". His tipster Twist rushes in...
LONNEGAN: Take it easy. Everything's all right. I put it on Syphon, on the nose.
TWIST:(in utter horror) On the nose! I said PLACE. PLACE it on Syphon. That horse is going to run second.
LONNEGAN: (runs back to the betting window and screams at the parimutuel teller) You give me my goddamn money back. You hear me? There's been a mistake!
NILES: I'm sorry, sir. The betting's closed. (As he shuts the betting window)....
And we have only just begun....
We are young at heart and as any market participant should, we have many questions to ask. Although the answers may be obvious or not forthcoming, there are no stupid questions. So in an effort to provoke thought, we ask. Our questions are italicized.
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