A Disingenuous Jobs Report?
Summary
Discussion, examination and analysis of Nov 6, 2015 BLS jobs report data.
Erosion of higher paying, prime earner jobs with benefits.
Analysis of declining payroll tax revenue growth.
Discussion of effects on the dollar, commodities, global equities and bond markets.
We Natter regarding the "spectacular" jobs growth in the Friday Nov 6, 2015BLS or BS report which was met by sterling media narrative and market response.
A cursory probe of the report finds an increasing Yoy work population +2.9M, decreasing Yoy participation rate -0.4% and 1 million added to the NILF (Not In Labor Force) category, and with all disenfranchised or discouraged considered, real un and under employment is at 25%, but that data was cheerfully ignored.
The cheerful headline +271K new jobs, so we are on the mend, right? DEAD wrong. Unfortunately, +145K or 54% of the +271K new jobs, are jobs arbitrarily added to the number by the birth death model which BLS utilizes. If you neutralize the birth death model's contribution, new jobs were a paltry +126K.
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