Underpaid Fed Officials Running Fool's Errands?
Ghiblinewt commented at John Mason's, This is Not A Game The Fed Wants.
We Nattered back...
GN,
I agree with and am well aware of the urban myths you have pointed out:
I take exception to: "a group of poorly-paid and under resourced bureaucrats tasked with a Fool's Errand."
Really? Please. 300 highly Phd's on staff is not under resourced. Aside from POTUS $400K there is no more sought after or coveted governmental positions on the planet. $200K Fed Chairman; $180K Fed Governor is not underpaid.
And anybody would gladly take these jobs, as they are doing anything but "running fool's errands". You covet these positions not for the paltry salary but for the post tenure benefits as a result of the FAVORS you bestow upon your real constituents and sponsors, not the public.
Due to the magnitude of market reaction to each and every word or announcement, before hand the level of the FOMC announcements security is epic. Why? Because there is no better form of market moving insider information in existence. Staff notes, another story. :-)
If one can't fathom that these efforts are not premeditated, coordinated, choreographed and orchestrated, then one must also believe Ancient Astronaut Theory and big time wrestling is 100% real and Chumly on Pawn Stars is actually as stupid as he is told to ACT. FOMC announcements are also entertainment, with much graver consequence. Media management and training? These guys are consummate professionals, the guys in the WPT and WSOP have nothing on them and couldn't take the heat.
"What model for example can possibly predict that China would loosen its USD peg on August 2015 18 months ago?"
Better question. At what point would one not have assessed or planned for that contingency? Perhaps with a derelict model?
How about a cognitive model, much less this one which predicted the result in a surreal way, he's either "touched" or its BAL, blind assed luck.
Or this one, which accurately predicted the consequences, found in the eurodollar futures chart one year out vs SP500...
Point is, its not that complicated, its not rocket science and the cathedral built to worship it, is a house of cards. Sometimes you don't want to dazzle them with brilliance, and it is necessary to baffle them with bullshit. Maintaining the illusion, anchors the audiences willing suspension of disbelief.
We Nattered back...
GN,
I agree with and am well aware of the urban myths you have pointed out:
- "rational expectations" - anchored by media narrative and falsity in econometrics
- "the existence of an equilibrium interest rate over a whole economy, neoclassical equilibrium itself having stable solutions" - never has worked, never will, Keynesian false doctrine.
I take exception to: "a group of poorly-paid and under resourced bureaucrats tasked with a Fool's Errand."
Really? Please. 300 highly Phd's on staff is not under resourced. Aside from POTUS $400K there is no more sought after or coveted governmental positions on the planet. $200K Fed Chairman; $180K Fed Governor is not underpaid.
And anybody would gladly take these jobs, as they are doing anything but "running fool's errands". You covet these positions not for the paltry salary but for the post tenure benefits as a result of the FAVORS you bestow upon your real constituents and sponsors, not the public.
Due to the magnitude of market reaction to each and every word or announcement, before hand the level of the FOMC announcements security is epic. Why? Because there is no better form of market moving insider information in existence. Staff notes, another story. :-)
If one can't fathom that these efforts are not premeditated, coordinated, choreographed and orchestrated, then one must also believe Ancient Astronaut Theory and big time wrestling is 100% real and Chumly on Pawn Stars is actually as stupid as he is told to ACT. FOMC announcements are also entertainment, with much graver consequence. Media management and training? These guys are consummate professionals, the guys in the WPT and WSOP have nothing on them and couldn't take the heat.
"What model for example can possibly predict that China would loosen its USD peg on August 2015 18 months ago?"
Better question. At what point would one not have assessed or planned for that contingency? Perhaps with a derelict model?
How about a cognitive model, much less this one which predicted the result in a surreal way, he's either "touched" or its BAL, blind assed luck.
Or this one, which accurately predicted the consequences, found in the eurodollar futures chart one year out vs SP500...
Point is, its not that complicated, its not rocket science and the cathedral built to worship it, is a house of cards. Sometimes you don't want to dazzle them with brilliance, and it is necessary to baffle them with bullshit. Maintaining the illusion, anchors the audiences willing suspension of disbelief.
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