Mission Impossible: Correlations in Action? The Fed, PBOC, Treasuries, The Dollar and Swaps

Summary
  • The potential correlations between a half dozen seemingly disparate global macro economic events. 
  • Said correlations may have resulted in the shifting of trillions of dollars in market equity in this latest relief rally and could effect future valuation levels.
  • A recent Fed Reverse Repo Spike; PBOC USD/RMB: Spread Compression; FX Forward 20% Deposit Mandate; Forward Swap Rollover on 10/15 
  • CNH Hibor spikes; The Dollar, UST's and Equities
In case you missed it, in our last missive, Oil: Shale Disrupts The Cost Paradigm? Part 3 we discussed:
  • OPEC market flooding costs and the potential consequences of production cuts
  • Other potential motives for all out production
  • Brief Analysis of shale tight oil costs and hidden cash flows 
  • Extent of the Oil and Gas market paradigm disruption caused by tight oil shale
In today's missive, we discuss the potential relationships between: a recent Fed Reverse Repo Spike; PBOC USD/RMB Spread Compression; PBOC USD/RMB FX Forward 20% Deposit Mandate; PBOC USD/RMB Forward Swap Rollover ; HIBOR SPIKES; The Dollar and Equities

Emanating from a clandestine tape player hidden in an innocuous place... Good morning Mr. Phelps, since September 30th, global markets including the SP500 have rallied on low volume, crude oil prices +8.7%, US 10 yr yield +11bps @ 2.09 ; while the DXY US dollar index -1.5%
  
Your mission should you choose to accept it, make a connection between a half dozen seemingly disparate global macro economic events which may have resulted in the shifting of trillions of dollars in market equity in this latest relief rally. As always should you or any member of your IM force be caught or killed, the Secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions.  This tape will self destruct in five seconds. Good luck Jim.

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