2016 NFL Super Bowl 50

Warm ups: Week 8 we went ATS 7-6-1; Week 16 ATS 5-1

Wild Card Week


We took all the road teams ATS and SU. Lines have been updated to reflect game time pricing as per oddsshark.com.  Line shift: PIT@CIN opened +1 and was a -1.5 game time favorite which covered.


KC 30 -3 @ HOU 0 ATS 1-0; SU 1-0

PIT 18 -1.5 @ CIN 16 ATS 2-0; SU 2-0
SEA 10 -4.5 @ MIN 9 ATS 2-1; SU 3-0
GB 35 +1.5 @ WAS 18 ATS 3-1; SU 4-0

ATS 3-1 and SU 4-0; Not a bad start to the playoffs

A first in NFL history, all four playoff road teams won. Only SEA did not cover.

Divisional


KC 20 +6 @ NE 27  ATS 0-1; SU 0-1

GB 20 @ ARZ 26 -7 ATS 0-2; SU 1-1
SEA 24 +2.5 @ CAR 31 ATS 0-3; SU 1-2
PIT 16 @ DEN 23  -6.5 ATS 1-3; SU 2-2

ATS 4-4 and SU 6-2; stinkin it up vs the spread.


All of the wild card road winners were on the road for a 2nd straight week as dogs. Rolled the dice on KC and SEA, big mistake as all four home favorites won outright and only ARZ did not cover.


Championship


NE 18 -3 @ DEN 20 ATS 1-0; SU 0-1

ARZ 15 @ CAR 49 -3 ATS 2-0; SU 1-1

ATS 6-4 and SU 7-3; a rebound, not so bad considering we went out on a ledge for KC, SEA and NE SU.


SUPER BOWL 50 


Weather: Santa Clara, CA. 55 and clear.


In YPC and YPA; DEN has a slight defensive edge, CAR has a clear offensive edge.

DEN O rush #13 pass #21; DEN D rush #1; pass #1 
CAR D rush #2; pass #7; CAR O rush #10; pass #10 

Uncle TOM: CAR takes care of the ball and are ball hawks, while the Buncos cough it up. 

DEN -2 #29 32 offensive TO's (1 post); #8 30 defensive takeaways (3 post)
CAR +28 #8 20 offensive TO's (1 post); #1 48 defensive takeaways (9 post)

Trenches:  DEN pressures QB's, CAR forces TO's, Cam is mobile and can run.
Bunco D #1 with 59 sacks (7 post), while the O line #22 gave up 43 (4 post).
Panther D #5 with 52 sacks (8 post), while O line #13 gave up 35 (2 post).

Notable Last 2 Weeks: DEN O couldn't close; porous pass D, pressure the passer. CAR grinds it out, pressure passer, force multiple turnovers early.

DEN: The O 7 FG's; 3TD; 1 TO, 4 sacks allowed, 30 mins TOP.  Bunco D avg 320 pass yds allowed; 7 sacks, 3 takeaways. 
CAR: Panther D allowed avg 69 yds rushing on 14 att; 8 sacks and 9 TO's (2 pick six). The O avg 148 yds rushing on 41 att. with 36 mins TOP; 1 turnover and 2 sacks allowed.

Flatliner award of the year: Never thought I would be saying this. What if Belichick had kicked FG's on NE's 1st two red zone 4Q drives, which ended in 4th down failure on the DEN 16 and 14 yd line respectively. The 3rd drive would have been for the game winning FG from the DEN 4 yd line with 0:17 left, rather than a TD and failed 2pt conv att. to tie. I guess they all eventually go braindead?  Is it the sport, money, too much Gatorade??


On a neutral field, the Panthers should be a -2.5 favorite, the spread opened cheaply at CAR -3.5 and smart money quickly moved it to -5.5 and for many good reasons.  


Strength of schedule DEN +2.1; CAR -3.9, yet the 14-4 Buncos could easily have been 10-6 reg season without two home wins in OT vs NE and CIN. Post season, DEN crawled past PIT and NE, the latter due to the aforementioned momentary lapse of reason on the part of NE head coach Belichick.

Meanwhile, 17-1 CAR has summarily disposed of SEA and ARZ, 55-7 combined at the half. The Panthers pounce quickly outscoring opponents 321-128 in the 1st half; 253-216 2nd half; then take cat naps in Q4, 113-123.  The Panthers literally bury their opponents in cat litter. Scoring margin at the end of 1Q 60; 2Q 193; 3Q 240. So what? All #1 in the NFL, the closest team is not even close NE 1Q 56; 2Q 109; 3Q 139.

Defensively these teams are about the same except the Panthers forced 18 more TO's. Both teams may have to rely on their aerial attack, because they may not be able to run vs these stout run D's. The Panther D made Palmer and Wilson, quick release, and could get it downfield, look horrible, especially early and the Sheriff is no Namath, Fouts or Marino.

The aerial and ground advantage clearly goes to the Panthers with Newton's mobility, rushing and arm. Passing Attempts: DEN #3 675; CAR #22 552; TD: CAR #4 38; DEN #27 21. INT: CAR #10 11; DEN #32 23  The Sheriff can't stretch it. Manning last 2 deep: 2-8 50 yds; 2-7 55 yds, look for CAR to creep up, cover short, stuff the box and blitz. 

Manning is on a 3 game, 78 pass attempt streak with no picks. In his career, 16 longer streaks, 10 of which ended under 100 atts, with only 2 streaks lasting more than 3 games. Peyton on the year 11 TD, 17 Int; in 5 road games, 9 picks. With 25-30 atts vs CAR D, Manning will probably throw at least one pick or more. 

He who makes the least mistakes wins. If Uncle TOM bites either team for at least -1 here is their win probability: since 1970 in the playoffs, if TOM = 0; 72-72; in SB's 8-8 50% win. In playoffs, if TOM -1 or more, combined 71-312 18.5% win.  In SB's if TOM -1 or more; 5-36; 12.2% win.  

For the Buncos to stay in this game: 1st hang on to the ball, 2nd run the ball successfully, 3rd close with TD's.  In order to do so, the Buncos must use short quick passes, screens, traps, counters and draws to open up the run game by baiting an over aggressive Panther D. The Panthers should be able to run, pass and hold the rock while their D harasses, harangues and harries the Sheriff potentially into multiple turnovers. 


Will we see a redux of SB 48 where the Bunco's dug an early hole and got waxed 43-8 by the Squawks? This is a mismatch on multiple levels which will require DEN to play perfectly while CAR makes a mistake or two. If the Panthers pounce early and force turnovers, it might be over by the half and the Sheriff's last rodeo in Levi's Stadium could end ugly.  CAR under -7 is a bargain hunters dream.


Pick CAR SU and ATS -5.5

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