Mr. Ed's Silence
Over at a financial forum...
Jomptien - "Nat, I remember that SB in 1984, my favorite game and biggest bet I ever made in sports 3K (my usual bets were $15/$20). Flew to LV from FL just to bet that game, stayed at the LasVegas Club hotel/casino, famous for all their sports memorabilia displays. I don't think its there anymore on the corner of Freemont and Main. I watched in my hotel room, pacing the floor, nervous, excited, and never felt comfortable until Squirk's interception TD. Thanks for the memories."
The Nattering One muses... Thanks for the kind words, always a pleasure to wax nostalgic and your welcome. LV Club across from the Plaza, opened in 1930, first neon sign on a casino in Lost Wages. Famous for the displays, oh yeah alot was on "display" in the day, it was a real Dean Martin Xmas party too.
Laid off the extra Raider money early at the Barbary Coast (now called The Cromwell) on the Raiders getting +3.5 (Jimmy Vaccaro and Archie Manteris ran it). No real hedge on that stake, I figured if the Raiders caught a case of the dreaded dropsy (like the Panthers this year) the Skins might luck out in a FG or less nail biter. It all worked out, good times indeed.
Funny thing, 4 years later I eclipsed that take (SB XXII) with the Redskins in Strike Bowl II. Mr. Ed's (Elway) Buncos were -3.5 and I KNEW it would not be close. We ran the sim a thousand times, the analytics indicated a 95% chance of a complete blow out, 90% coming before the half and only a tail risk 5% chance of a Bunco win. The only reason the take was bigger than SB XVIII...
1st Denver offensive play Elway threw a TD pass 7-0 at 13:11, next Bunco drive a FG, I'm down 10-0 at 9:30 of Q1. I was barely paying attention because I wasn't nervous about the end result. Some of my friends were chiding me loudly, "hey, I thought you KNEW?", so I paid some attention and made a call to my "insurance agent". My friends thought I was going to hedge, and were aghast when they heard me double down at +6 for the game.
Their interest was peaked, so feeling generous, I proceeded to take their money straight up on the remainder of the game. Just after Williams threw his 4th TD pass of the 2nd quarter and the Skins were up 35-10 (most lopsided quarter in SB history) they were all muttering and calling me names under their breath. My phone rang, it was my "agent" calling me to say, "how about a chance to get some of my money back, would you please like to make another bet?"
I responded in kind: "Sure you've always been there for me. I don't want to switch horses to Mr. Ed, so I'll take the Skins, what will you give me?" He thought for a couple of seconds and said "I think the Skins shot their wad: I'll give you Skins -3 for the 2nd half, but only if you'll double down." My response: "Skin's -3 2nd half SOLD!!! And we will be sending Mr. Ed to the glue factory!" After the final countdown, score Skins 42-10, 2nd half 7-0 Skins, my phone rang again, I knew who it was: "Your really something you know, I thought I had you, WTF did you know?" I thanked him and told him this.
Getting +3.5 and down 10-0, I might have stopped out down 17 or 21, but it never hit. What's the moral of the story? Aside from the same moral that P lays out most every day and that we visited in The Silence of the Hog's; conviction even when the tide goes against you.
Super Bowl XXII Highlights
Jomptien - "Nat, I remember that SB in 1984, my favorite game and biggest bet I ever made in sports 3K (my usual bets were $15/$20). Flew to LV from FL just to bet that game, stayed at the LasVegas Club hotel/casino, famous for all their sports memorabilia displays. I don't think its there anymore on the corner of Freemont and Main. I watched in my hotel room, pacing the floor, nervous, excited, and never felt comfortable until Squirk's interception TD. Thanks for the memories."
The Nattering One muses... Thanks for the kind words, always a pleasure to wax nostalgic and your welcome. LV Club across from the Plaza, opened in 1930, first neon sign on a casino in Lost Wages. Famous for the displays, oh yeah alot was on "display" in the day, it was a real Dean Martin Xmas party too.
The risk I took in Silence of The Hogs (SB XVIII) was the "largest unhedged risk" I ever took on a sporting event. My regular book was balanced, but there was an unhedged risk on the "crazy" Raider fav up to -13 money. I considered a +6pt teaser but did not want to deal with the additional totals prop vis. Raiders +9; over under 54 at 10 to 11 (paying premium).
Funny thing, 4 years later I eclipsed that take (SB XXII) with the Redskins in Strike Bowl II. Mr. Ed's (Elway) Buncos were -3.5 and I KNEW it would not be close. We ran the sim a thousand times, the analytics indicated a 95% chance of a complete blow out, 90% coming before the half and only a tail risk 5% chance of a Bunco win. The only reason the take was bigger than SB XVIII...
1st Denver offensive play Elway threw a TD pass 7-0 at 13:11, next Bunco drive a FG, I'm down 10-0 at 9:30 of Q1. I was barely paying attention because I wasn't nervous about the end result. Some of my friends were chiding me loudly, "hey, I thought you KNEW?", so I paid some attention and made a call to my "insurance agent". My friends thought I was going to hedge, and were aghast when they heard me double down at +6 for the game.
Their interest was peaked, so feeling generous, I proceeded to take their money straight up on the remainder of the game. Just after Williams threw his 4th TD pass of the 2nd quarter and the Skins were up 35-10 (most lopsided quarter in SB history) they were all muttering and calling me names under their breath. My phone rang, it was my "agent" calling me to say, "how about a chance to get some of my money back, would you please like to make another bet?"
I responded in kind: "Sure you've always been there for me. I don't want to switch horses to Mr. Ed, so I'll take the Skins, what will you give me?" He thought for a couple of seconds and said "I think the Skins shot their wad: I'll give you Skins -3 for the 2nd half, but only if you'll double down." My response: "Skin's -3 2nd half SOLD!!! And we will be sending Mr. Ed to the glue factory!" After the final countdown, score Skins 42-10, 2nd half 7-0 Skins, my phone rang again, I knew who it was: "Your really something you know, I thought I had you, WTF did you know?" I thanked him and told him this.
Getting +3.5 and down 10-0, I might have stopped out down 17 or 21, but it never hit. What's the moral of the story? Aside from the same moral that P lays out most every day and that we visited in The Silence of the Hog's; conviction even when the tide goes against you.
Super Bowl XXII Highlights
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