Consumer Recession on The Lido di Venezia
All is seemingly well in Venice, the Lido and vaporetto rides are extra special this time of year. Many in Venice, Burano, Murano and the Lido can no longer make a living, so they migrate to greener pastures when they become of age. Not enough decent paying jobs, and as witnessed by no dearth of Vendesi (For Sale) and Affitasi (For Rent) signs they cannot exit either.
3 years ago 100m2 was 500K, now 150-200K. To put this in perspective, as opposed to this Adriatic tourist Mecca, over on the Tyrrhenian side of the boot, in Piombino - 100m2 in a prime location can be had for 80K, and the prices in both locations are cratering by the day. It's not just the Chinese that have a capital flight and brain drain problem, Italy's is massive.
The monetary flow contraction went full bore November and surgically pronounced in December. One might think the worst is over as seasonal monetary flows should be in an upswing until mid June. Somebody wake me up when the dollar pierces 100 with conviction and keeps heading up, wreaking havoc on equities and commodities. King Dollar or Gozer the destructor cannot be stopped.
The perfect storm? The BS employment and GDP numbers kept getting pumped and the Fed raised in December. Primary dealers have been liquidating corporate bonds for a damn good reason. They can slap as much lipstick on this pig as they want, its still one ugly sow that is going to start squealing like Ned Beatty in Deliverance... when means of payment and aggregate demand, both in constant contraction since the crisis, suddenly disappear into a black hole.
Off to Venice proper, where I will have a friend for dinner, my favorite is liver Venetian style with fave beans and a nice chianti, how apropo. I will salute you all along St. Marks Watchtower, where I can't get no relief. Then perhaps a view of the Ponte dei Sospiri or the Bridge of Sighs, where the condemned sighed as they traversed to their final moments in this world. And then perhaps, we shall go to Rome... who knows?
3 years ago 100m2 was 500K, now 150-200K. To put this in perspective, as opposed to this Adriatic tourist Mecca, over on the Tyrrhenian side of the boot, in Piombino - 100m2 in a prime location can be had for 80K, and the prices in both locations are cratering by the day. It's not just the Chinese that have a capital flight and brain drain problem, Italy's is massive.
The monetary flow contraction went full bore November and surgically pronounced in December. One might think the worst is over as seasonal monetary flows should be in an upswing until mid June. Somebody wake me up when the dollar pierces 100 with conviction and keeps heading up, wreaking havoc on equities and commodities. King Dollar or Gozer the destructor cannot be stopped.
The perfect storm? The BS employment and GDP numbers kept getting pumped and the Fed raised in December. Primary dealers have been liquidating corporate bonds for a damn good reason. They can slap as much lipstick on this pig as they want, its still one ugly sow that is going to start squealing like Ned Beatty in Deliverance... when means of payment and aggregate demand, both in constant contraction since the crisis, suddenly disappear into a black hole.
Off to Venice proper, where I will have a friend for dinner, my favorite is liver Venetian style with fave beans and a nice chianti, how apropo. I will salute you all along St. Marks Watchtower, where I can't get no relief. Then perhaps a view of the Ponte dei Sospiri or the Bridge of Sighs, where the condemned sighed as they traversed to their final moments in this world. And then perhaps, we shall go to Rome... who knows?
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