More on GFC, SOL and SOB
Over at SA, following up on Monday's - A Higher Standard of Living? SOL or SOB?
AriCool - "NN, thanks for the detailed (and entertaining) response. I'll take a stab at two of your points:
re "Yet, the earnings of both men and women fell. How can household incomes go up when the earnings of both sexes go down? Easy: The number of workers per household went up."
I beg to disagree. That is no evidence of falling SoL b/c at the same time from the 50s to 90s the size of houses soared to become McMansions, number cars per family and rate of buy new car quickly (e.g., every 2 years) soared, and # of kids going to college soared, and I’m betting access to health care soared. Also, you are ignoring the extension of life from 65 to 75 year old. Just this list of factors indicate a significant boost in the standard of living. It is just that people became more materialistic so saving rates dropped and consumption rose so more in the household had to work to fund those higher consumption (bad?) habbits.
re "Here is some recent inflation info on three big budget items, housing, cars and college, which have been going nothing but up, up and up. "
So, if SoL dropped due to inflation as you posit then how is it that public consumption of housing, cars and college has gone up at least as fast as the population growth rate? If SoL was dropping as you say then we should be seeing less per capita of housing and car ownership and college enrollment. yet, those rates have been stable since the 50s, right?"
Let's decompose, masticate and Natter slowly.... "more in the household had to work to fund those higher consumption (bad?) habbits."
Bingo, bad hobbits too. LOL. Yes, consumption habits became very bad in the keep up with the Jones. Ask a sports team, how many points do you need? Answer MORE. Ask a non frugal consumer living the dream beyond their means, how much do you really need? Standard answer: MORE, BIGGER, BETTER, FASTER, WHIP OUT THAT CREDIT CARD, I WANT IT ALL AND I WANT IT NOW.
SOL dropped due to rising costs, both spouses forced to work to make ends meet. Hrs worked went up. This actually declined since 2008, at the same rate, you work less, you earn less. At a lower rate, your SOL suffers, unless you borrow more from your housing ATM. Ah, there's the rub with living high on the hog or beyond your means.
More off spring forced to stay in or return to the nest for longer periods. What was previously considered an 18 year minimum sentence in the institution known as marriage, is now 35 to life for some because, what might have been better as a swallow, just keeps coming back like one. Pun intended.
"If SoL dropped due to inflation as you posit then how is it that public consumption of housing, cars and college has gone up at least as fast as the population growth rate?"
Refer to the answer above, spend, spend, spend and it is axiomatic... despite ever increasing costs, people always need a roof over their head, transportation and some form of continued education.
Look at the number of renters vs owners over the last 30 years for a clue. Note the ownership society became the sharecropper society and is now the renter society viz. ratio of renters to owners has exploded since 2008.
Many are going without cars and advanced education, many are going without a roof over their head (homeless), soon many more will go without owning. Within 25 years that ratio will reach epidemic proportions as the American dream becomes an urban myth.
I will say it again, the first "3rd World" Americans have already been born and within 50 years, it will be the way of life. Of course there will be dusty old printed scriptures which those poor people will have to bury and hide from the thought police.
On sweltering nights, while huddled around their communal IPad, they will break out and dust off the old scrolls (culled from old forum posts and blogs before the internet was censored) to read stories about the mythical "good old" days.
When there actually was real meat, fruit, vegetables, bees, clean air and water, non human enhanced temperature and climate fluctuations, less radiation, and people worked rather than lived in government cubicles.
Fortunately that potential "Soylent Green" and "The Omega Man" future is a horror story I won't have to witness. And in the end...
Unless those who lived through the three bubbles (Dot.com 2000; MBS Real Estate GFC 2007 and current QE ZIRP NIRP or Monetary Policy) affect and effect change on the SOB's and SOB, the SOL will keep declining and future generations will be SOL and they will hear a lot of SOB.
GFC = Great Financial Crisis
SOL = Standard of Living and Shit Out of Luck
SOB = Son of a Bitch and Standard Operational Bullshit and The sound one makes while crying
AriCool - "NN, thanks for the detailed (and entertaining) response. I'll take a stab at two of your points:
re "Yet, the earnings of both men and women fell. How can household incomes go up when the earnings of both sexes go down? Easy: The number of workers per household went up."
I beg to disagree. That is no evidence of falling SoL b/c at the same time from the 50s to 90s the size of houses soared to become McMansions, number cars per family and rate of buy new car quickly (e.g., every 2 years) soared, and # of kids going to college soared, and I’m betting access to health care soared. Also, you are ignoring the extension of life from 65 to 75 year old. Just this list of factors indicate a significant boost in the standard of living. It is just that people became more materialistic so saving rates dropped and consumption rose so more in the household had to work to fund those higher consumption (bad?) habbits.
re "Here is some recent inflation info on three big budget items, housing, cars and college, which have been going nothing but up, up and up. "
So, if SoL dropped due to inflation as you posit then how is it that public consumption of housing, cars and college has gone up at least as fast as the population growth rate? If SoL was dropping as you say then we should be seeing less per capita of housing and car ownership and college enrollment. yet, those rates have been stable since the 50s, right?"
Let's decompose, masticate and Natter slowly.... "more in the household had to work to fund those higher consumption (bad?) habbits."
Bingo, bad hobbits too. LOL. Yes, consumption habits became very bad in the keep up with the Jones. Ask a sports team, how many points do you need? Answer MORE. Ask a non frugal consumer living the dream beyond their means, how much do you really need? Standard answer: MORE, BIGGER, BETTER, FASTER, WHIP OUT THAT CREDIT CARD, I WANT IT ALL AND I WANT IT NOW.
SOL dropped due to rising costs, both spouses forced to work to make ends meet. Hrs worked went up. This actually declined since 2008, at the same rate, you work less, you earn less. At a lower rate, your SOL suffers, unless you borrow more from your housing ATM. Ah, there's the rub with living high on the hog or beyond your means.
More off spring forced to stay in or return to the nest for longer periods. What was previously considered an 18 year minimum sentence in the institution known as marriage, is now 35 to life for some because, what might have been better as a swallow, just keeps coming back like one. Pun intended.
"If SoL dropped due to inflation as you posit then how is it that public consumption of housing, cars and college has gone up at least as fast as the population growth rate?"
Refer to the answer above, spend, spend, spend and it is axiomatic... despite ever increasing costs, people always need a roof over their head, transportation and some form of continued education.
Look at the number of renters vs owners over the last 30 years for a clue. Note the ownership society became the sharecropper society and is now the renter society viz. ratio of renters to owners has exploded since 2008.
Many are going without cars and advanced education, many are going without a roof over their head (homeless), soon many more will go without owning. Within 25 years that ratio will reach epidemic proportions as the American dream becomes an urban myth.
I will say it again, the first "3rd World" Americans have already been born and within 50 years, it will be the way of life. Of course there will be dusty old printed scriptures which those poor people will have to bury and hide from the thought police.
On sweltering nights, while huddled around their communal IPad, they will break out and dust off the old scrolls (culled from old forum posts and blogs before the internet was censored) to read stories about the mythical "good old" days.
When there actually was real meat, fruit, vegetables, bees, clean air and water, non human enhanced temperature and climate fluctuations, less radiation, and people worked rather than lived in government cubicles.
Fortunately that potential "Soylent Green" and "The Omega Man" future is a horror story I won't have to witness. And in the end...
Unless those who lived through the three bubbles (Dot.com 2000; MBS Real Estate GFC 2007 and current QE ZIRP NIRP or Monetary Policy) affect and effect change on the SOB's and SOB, the SOL will keep declining and future generations will be SOL and they will hear a lot of SOB.
GFC = Great Financial Crisis
SOL = Standard of Living and Shit Out of Luck
SOB = Son of a Bitch and Standard Operational Bullshit and The sound one makes while crying
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