The Mormon President?
In 2016, you need 270 of 538 electoral votes to win. In 2012 - Romney 202, Obama 332, Maine 4 (split votes). We are going to give you three possibilities, remote, but not as remote as many may assume or think.
Scenario #1
Assuming that the 2012 electoral pattern holds, with the following exceptions: Five states, New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6), Colorado (9), Virginia (13) and Florida (29) swing to Trump. How?
What do those five states have in common? In 2000 (Gore - Bush) most of these states came down to the wire by thin margin. In 2008 and 2012, Obama carried those five states. Previously they all had a historical predilection towards voting Republican.
Trump and Clinton are equally disliked, while Clinton is not liked as Obama. Those five states could easily flip back to being pre Obama Republican states.
Above, Utah (6) votes in favorite son Evan McMullin, who has a commanding lead in the polls. 2016 - Trump 261, Clinton 271, Other 6, Clinton wins a close one.
Scenario #2 - The New Mexico Factor
Assuming that the 2012 electoral pattern holds, with the above mentioned five states swinging to Trump...
Above, New Mexico's (5) hate vote goes to their ex Governor; Utah (6) votes in favorite son Evan McMullin. 2016 - Clinton 266, Trump 261, Other 11, neither would have the necessary 270 votes.
Scenario #3 - The Iowa Factor
Assuming that the 2012 electoral pattern holds, with the above mentioned five states swinging to Trump...
Above, McMullin takes Utah; New Mexico votes their long term trend, democrat; while Iowa (6) makes it a half dozen in the swing club. 2016 - Clinton 265, Trump 267, Other 6, again neither has the necessary 270 votes.
How could Iowa make it six swing states? By the numbers, in 2000, democratic by 0.3%; 2004 republican by 0.6%; in current polls a toss up.
Think scenario 2 or 3 are impossible? Remember, Gore beat Bush in the popular vote, however SCOTUS struck down the FLA recount, handing Bush the electoral majority and presidency.
Not getting an electoral majority has happened twice before, 1800 - Jefferson vs Adams, after 35 unsuccessful congressional votes, Jefferson won. Leading to the enactment of the 12th amendment. 1824 - the vote was split between John Quincy Adams, Andrew Jackson, William Crawford and Henry Clay. Even though Jackson won the popular vote, the house choose Adams.
And Then?
What happens if neither candidate reaches 270? The newly elected House of Representatives (expected to remain Republican controlled 246-186-3) selects the president, from the three individuals who received the most electoral votes. Each state delegation gets one vote, and have absolutely no obligation to vote for the person who won their state.
If the House can’t decide on a new president by Inauguration Day, the Vice President Elect serves as president until the situation is resolved. If a vice president hasn’t been selected, the speaker of the House serves as president until the situation is resolved. The current speaker of the House? Drum roll please.... Republican Paul Ryan.
The newly elected Senate (Republican controlled 54-44-2; the result of 12 elections could shift power) gets to choose the vice president, with senators picking among the two individuals who received the most electoral votes. Each senator gets one vote and has absolutely no obligation to vote for the person who won their state.
Impossible?
BTW, in either scenario 2 or 3, the Republican controlled house could vote for Clinton, Trump or McMullin. Remember, each state delegation has absolutely no obligation to vote for the person who won their state. What might happen if the Republicans break ranks on Trump? Do you think they would vote for Clinton?
In the not too distant future, our history could read, Ex-Republican, Independent, Mormon, former: CIA operations officer; chief policy director for the House Republican Conference in the U.S. House of Representatives; senior adviser on national security issues for the House Committee on Foreign Affairs; and investment banker after graduating from Wharton; The 45th US President - Evan McMullin. I wouldn't bet on it, but stranger things have happened. TBD.
Scenario #1
Assuming that the 2012 electoral pattern holds, with the following exceptions: Five states, New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6), Colorado (9), Virginia (13) and Florida (29) swing to Trump. How?
What do those five states have in common? In 2000 (Gore - Bush) most of these states came down to the wire by thin margin. In 2008 and 2012, Obama carried those five states. Previously they all had a historical predilection towards voting Republican.
Trump and Clinton are equally disliked, while Clinton is not liked as Obama. Those five states could easily flip back to being pre Obama Republican states.
Click the map to create your own at Above, Utah (6) votes in favorite son Evan McMullin, who has a commanding lead in the polls. 2016 - Trump 261, Clinton 271, Other 6, Clinton wins a close one.
Scenario #2 - The New Mexico Factor
Assuming that the 2012 electoral pattern holds, with the above mentioned five states swinging to Trump...
Above, New Mexico's (5) hate vote goes to their ex Governor; Utah (6) votes in favorite son Evan McMullin. 2016 - Clinton 266, Trump 261, Other 11, neither would have the necessary 270 votes.
Scenario #3 - The Iowa Factor
Assuming that the 2012 electoral pattern holds, with the above mentioned five states swinging to Trump...
Above, McMullin takes Utah; New Mexico votes their long term trend, democrat; while Iowa (6) makes it a half dozen in the swing club. 2016 - Clinton 265, Trump 267, Other 6, again neither has the necessary 270 votes.
How could Iowa make it six swing states? By the numbers, in 2000, democratic by 0.3%; 2004 republican by 0.6%; in current polls a toss up.
Think scenario 2 or 3 are impossible? Remember, Gore beat Bush in the popular vote, however SCOTUS struck down the FLA recount, handing Bush the electoral majority and presidency.
Not getting an electoral majority has happened twice before, 1800 - Jefferson vs Adams, after 35 unsuccessful congressional votes, Jefferson won. Leading to the enactment of the 12th amendment. 1824 - the vote was split between John Quincy Adams, Andrew Jackson, William Crawford and Henry Clay. Even though Jackson won the popular vote, the house choose Adams.
And Then?
What happens if neither candidate reaches 270? The newly elected House of Representatives (expected to remain Republican controlled 246-186-3) selects the president, from the three individuals who received the most electoral votes. Each state delegation gets one vote, and have absolutely no obligation to vote for the person who won their state.
If the House can’t decide on a new president by Inauguration Day, the Vice President Elect serves as president until the situation is resolved. If a vice president hasn’t been selected, the speaker of the House serves as president until the situation is resolved. The current speaker of the House? Drum roll please.... Republican Paul Ryan.
The newly elected Senate (Republican controlled 54-44-2; the result of 12 elections could shift power) gets to choose the vice president, with senators picking among the two individuals who received the most electoral votes. Each senator gets one vote and has absolutely no obligation to vote for the person who won their state.
Impossible?
BTW, in either scenario 2 or 3, the Republican controlled house could vote for Clinton, Trump or McMullin. Remember, each state delegation has absolutely no obligation to vote for the person who won their state. What might happen if the Republicans break ranks on Trump? Do you think they would vote for Clinton?
In the not too distant future, our history could read, Ex-Republican, Independent, Mormon, former: CIA operations officer; chief policy director for the House Republican Conference in the U.S. House of Representatives; senior adviser on national security issues for the House Committee on Foreign Affairs; and investment banker after graduating from Wharton; The 45th US President - Evan McMullin. I wouldn't bet on it, but stranger things have happened. TBD.
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