Yield Curve Inversion: Recession?

Following up on Transparent Distortions and GDP? A Naybob of Financial Advice asks....

"do you think we need an inverted curve to forecast a recession or do you think things have gotten so distorted that it may be possible before that occurs?"

As always we endeavor to answer our friends FORECASTING question with our Nattering. Moving West...

[in our aforementioned discussion of "velocities"...] In this QE ZIRP environment, replete with "tame" inflation, institutionally brainwashed econometric intelligentsia who are practicing members of S.L.A.P. (Statistical Liars & Academic Prostitutes) have the demeanor of a drug addict when it comes to inflation or stagflation.

The mere mention of those words causes a stammer, nervous tick and an argumentative illogical rant of goobly gook and complete denial equal to that of a debunked peak oil or ancient astronaut theorist. Of course, replete with PRAVDA-esque government and financial industry supplied econometrics, which seem to suffer from a logical disconnect. 

SLAP missionaries are apoplectic when one dare question their gospel intoning the sanctity of their theory. Why does empirical evidence, common sense and the obvious, so ignite SLAP theorists' fulminations? 

Economic theorists, much like Ancient Astronaut theorists, are just that, theorists who dabble in a speculative postulation based upon assumptions, presumptions, estimates, guesses and in some cases self serving data, bias and falsehoods. 

Empirical evidence can be deceiving, especially from a bias source. When or why would the government or financial sector ever find it necessary to lie to the public? That would never happen, would it? 

"There are three types of lies - lies, damn lies, and statistics" - Mark Twain or Disraeli. - The Emperor's New Clothes Or Econometric Misperception?

Along those lines of getting SLAP-ped silly by inflationary deception, and much like the stewards at the Magic Castle, we trust you can keep a secret? The latest quarter REAL GDP can be reported with a positive annualized growth rate, while the actual annual rate of change [Roc = Delta] is in fact NEGATIVE. Yes, that is true and the results are magical indeed.

Above, note the BLUE line: with the exception of Q1 2004, REAL GDP growth has been in NEGATIVE territory since Q2 2000 or 18 YEARS. Since Q1 1990 or over the last 28 YEARS, the average growth rate has been NEGATIVE -2%. 

Choose your poison, 18 consecutive or 28 averaged years of NEGATIVE growth rates in REAL GDP.  This comes to mind...

Recession? What me worry? Aside from stagflation in the nation, there is another more accurate word describing what we suffer, which starts with a D and brings this to mind...

"It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose your own." — Harry Truman

Suggested Reading: In no uncertain terms, the 1st and 2nd missives from Jan 2016 drive the point home, like a stake in the heart.  The 3rd from Jan 2016 and 4th from May 2015 point to the "manipulation" of the numbers for mass consumption, getting drunk on theat kool-aid, and policy related navigational distortions. Do click on the Shadowstats page for further details.

Bull Economy - Jan 2016
Bull Economy 2 - Jan 2016
Davos: Black Swan Lake - Jan 2016
The Emperor's New Clothes Or Econometric Misperception? - May 2015
Shadowstats SGS REAL GDP Alternate