Retail Apocalypse: Highway To Hell?

Resurfacing from the depths of A Sinking Wreck?
Does one think many large and small mall ANCHORS, CREIT's which are landlords, as well as CMBS holders are getting that SINKING feeling?
Many are Trump-eting the narrative of post GFC "recovery" with "robust" wage, employment and economy with looming wage driven inflation hysteria....

Bearing that rose colored narrative in mind, what does 2018 hold for retail?? The good news first? As of April 14th, 1699 have announced openings...


Most of the growth comes from German grocer Aldi, and what used to be called DIME STORES, rather than DOLLAR STORES, sign o stagflation, reduced spending power, the times, or just the Naybob showing his age?  Don't go there, and now the bad news....



2018 YTD recap: the number of store openings is 1,699 and the number of US store closure announcements stands at 3,335, which correlates to 11,500 closures by the end of 2018.


With a squeezed and maxed out consumer, is there a potential PER CAPITA over capacity in shopping space or too many mega, large, outlet and mini malls?
The US has 23.5 square feet of retail space per person, compared with 16.4 square feet in Canada and 11.1 square feet in Australia, the next two countries with the most retail space per capita, according to a Morningstar Credit Ratings report from October.
Increased retail closures, means retail workers lose their jobs, and what kind of fallout might that have?
The path to the middle class in retail is often to become a supervisor. There are 1.2 million of them, and their average annual salary is more than twice that of a cashier at $44,000. 
Does one get the sense that this "Apocalypse" could be leading somewhere with undesirable consequences?  Que up brothers Angus and Malcolm, and Mr. Scott...

 

What does the future hold??  More to come in Falling Down?  Stay tuned no flippin.

Suggested reading:

2018 YTD FGRT
2017 Retail BK Filings - RetailDive

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