Rapture?
Following up on Where's Your Messiah Now? On Black Friday, empty shopping mall and big box parking lots were reported in many metropolitan areas around the country including suburban Chicago, New York and ...
Where did all the shoppers go? Are they the Departed and we the Leftovers? It looks like the cloud or clowns mouth landed in the parking lot and swallowed all the shoppers, Cadillacs, Lincolns too, Mercuries and Subaru?
Lets dig deeper...
Brick n Mortar decreases (rounded)... 100M x 4% = 4M; thus 96M visited in 2017. In 2018, a decline of between 5 and 9%, split the difference and subtract 7% from 96M (-6.7M) = 89.3M visited in 2018.
At a linear 1 to 1 relationship, $1K per shopper average with a 6.7M decline = $6.7B less spent. Last time we checked $6.7B is more than $5.7B by the tune of $1B. Splitting hairs and not much difference, whats a billion here or there one might say? Moving West...
Thus the decrease in BNM was 18% larger than the much trumpeted total online increase. But it gets better, or worse, depending how you look at it. remember in 2017...
Lets be munificent and again split the difference. A $10.5B BnM decrease is 84% larger than the $5.7B online increase.
Again....
Happy Daze are here again? All numbers aside, this is good news in what way, shape or form? What is this an example of? An MSM spin on commercial culture which suffers a fundamental failure in math, business and economics.
In keeping with our Parting of the Red Sea? and Where's Your Messiah Now? themes... as BnM traffic witnessed, somehow, one can hear this loud and distinct...
Face to face, Sadly solitude, And it's finger popping, 24 hour shopping, in Rapture
Apropos, we think. More to come in Ro-BUST?, stay tuned, no flippin.
On the heels of Kohl's, Lowe's, Target, Best Buy, other major retailers and consumer discretionary getting pummeled, empty parking lots on Black Friday?As the food industry guy, I've never shopped #BlackFriday before. What's that big deal? Walmart Parkinglot in Cypress TX. #NPDHoliday pic.twitter.com/0eMatfHym5— DavidPortalatin (@NPDPortalatin) November 23, 2018
Where did all the shoppers go? Are they the Departed and we the Leftovers? It looks like the cloud or clowns mouth landed in the parking lot and swallowed all the shoppers, Cadillacs, Lincolns too, Mercuries and Subaru?
Lets dig deeper...
In 2016, there were 101.7 million people who braved the crowds. The number of people visiting stores in 2017 was 4 percent lower than in 2016. In 2018, it fell as much as 9 percent from 2017. - The BalanceConfirming above with some interesting graphics - Reveal Mobile and...
During Thanksgiving and Black Friday, traffic to US stores fell between 5 to 9% compared with the same days last year, estimated RetailNext. - WSJNow the sobering math... online increases 22nd - 3.7B x .28 = 1.04B; 23rd - 6.2B x .236 = 1.46; 24th + 25th - 6.4B x .25 = 1.6B; 26th - 7.9B x .197 = 1.55B, Add all five days up, you get $5.7B in online increases Yoy.
Brick n Mortar decreases (rounded)... 100M x 4% = 4M; thus 96M visited in 2017. In 2018, a decline of between 5 and 9%, split the difference and subtract 7% from 96M (-6.7M) = 89.3M visited in 2018.
At a linear 1 to 1 relationship, $1K per shopper average with a 6.7M decline = $6.7B less spent. Last time we checked $6.7B is more than $5.7B by the tune of $1B. Splitting hairs and not much difference, whats a billion here or there one might say? Moving West...
Thus the decrease in BNM was 18% larger than the much trumpeted total online increase. But it gets better, or worse, depending how you look at it. remember in 2017...
sales were down 8.9 percent for the weekend year-over-year, and shopper traffic fell 4.4 percent.Rather than linear 1 to 1, this would constitute a 2 to 1 relationship. Should that relationship hold in 2018, the decrease in BNM sales would be a hefty $14B.
Lets be munificent and again split the difference. A $10.5B BnM decrease is 84% larger than the $5.7B online increase.
Again....
Commercial culture update... Black Friday. Early Black Friday. After Black Friday. All resulted in a decline in bricks and mortar foot-traffic. The people who pay attention to such things estimate 9 million fewer shoppers passed through the doors of retailers. - GranitegrokI don't care how much online sales went up, or why, or what BS is being spun and flung from it. All we know is there was an overall decrease in BnM traffic circa 9M, which translated to a decline in sales of circa $8.3B to $14B during Nov 22 - 26th.
Happy Daze are here again? All numbers aside, this is good news in what way, shape or form? What is this an example of? An MSM spin on commercial culture which suffers a fundamental failure in math, business and economics.
In keeping with our Parting of the Red Sea? and Where's Your Messiah Now? themes... as BnM traffic witnessed, somehow, one can hear this loud and distinct...
Face to face, Sadly solitude, And it's finger popping, 24 hour shopping, in Rapture
Apropos, we think. More to come in Ro-BUST?, stay tuned, no flippin.
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