China, Soft Landing?? Maybe not...
Long-time China observers, such as Simon Hunt, note the simultaneous bursting of the housing and automobile bubbles in China, to which the markets have hitherto paid little attention.
“If the USA had seen a 60-70% fall in housing starts between the start of the year and August and a 38% fall in auto sales, markets there would be shaking."
And yet markets appear oblivious to the facts.
There has been almost a 70% fall in the floor area under construction in August 2004 versus the average of the first two months of the year.
The Shanghai Index since mid 2001 has lost almost 50% as well.
An excellent analysis of China's situation by Marshall Auerback...
http://www.jpri.org/publications/critiques/critique_XI_5.html
“If the USA had seen a 60-70% fall in housing starts between the start of the year and August and a 38% fall in auto sales, markets there would be shaking."
And yet markets appear oblivious to the facts.
There has been almost a 70% fall in the floor area under construction in August 2004 versus the average of the first two months of the year.
The Shanghai Index since mid 2001 has lost almost 50% as well.
An excellent analysis of China's situation by Marshall Auerback...
http://www.jpri.org/publications/critiques/critique_XI_5.html
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