Will we see the Asian Financial Flu Again?
In the 1920s, Great Britain was the superpower of the world, and the United States was the rising giant.
During the 1920s the British Empire was already in decline, was militarily overextended, and in order to pay for its imperial adventures, resorted to debasing its own currency and running continuous foreign trade and budget deficits. Meanwhile, America was running trade surpluses and was a net creditor nation. This was when MADE IN THE USA became famous.
Today America is in the position of Great Britain during the 20's, and MADE IN CHINA is stamped on everything.
Could China fall into a depression without a decline in U.S. consumerism? And would the contagion spread into a world wide depression? And what would the fallout be?
The likely candidates for a trigger to a Chinese depression are (1) a worldwide currency, banking, or derivatives crisis, (2) a U.S.recession, (3) the containment of runaway inflation, (4) the disappearance of Chinese trade surpluses, and (5) an oil supply crisis.
An excellent comparison and parallel analysis by Dr. Krassimir Petrov ...
http://64.29.208.119/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=35772
During the 1920s the British Empire was already in decline, was militarily overextended, and in order to pay for its imperial adventures, resorted to debasing its own currency and running continuous foreign trade and budget deficits. Meanwhile, America was running trade surpluses and was a net creditor nation. This was when MADE IN THE USA became famous.
Today America is in the position of Great Britain during the 20's, and MADE IN CHINA is stamped on everything.
Could China fall into a depression without a decline in U.S. consumerism? And would the contagion spread into a world wide depression? And what would the fallout be?
The likely candidates for a trigger to a Chinese depression are (1) a worldwide currency, banking, or derivatives crisis, (2) a U.S.recession, (3) the containment of runaway inflation, (4) the disappearance of Chinese trade surpluses, and (5) an oil supply crisis.
An excellent comparison and parallel analysis by Dr. Krassimir Petrov ...
http://64.29.208.119/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=35772
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