Market Soapbox 11/18/05

Resistance: DJIA 10775; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2225; NDX 1680
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500

In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, last week the NDX hit a multi year high, today the Nikkei hit a 5 year high and the DAX a 3 year high.

Also today, The SP500 and Nasdaq hit 4 1/2 year highs of 1248 and 2234 respectively, not since 06/13/01 and 06/08/01 have they seen this level.

The SP400 Midcaps hit an all time high of 730 and crude oil went to a 5 month low at $56.14. The dollar hit a high against the Yen of 119.08, and was flat against the Euro at 1.1770.

8 weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, plunging below all major DMA's. 7 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 6 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down on higher volume. 5 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6.

4 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77, 3 weeks ago, even larger swings, DJIA +186. 2 weeks ago, broadbased gains on higher volume DJIA +128. Last week, DJIA +154, three consecutive weeks of gains totaling DJIA +468.

This week, Mon. DJIA +11 on tepid internals. Tues, DJIA -11 with horrible internals on higher volume. Wen, DJIA -12 on lower volume. Thur, DJIA +45 roared to the upside. Today, DJIA +46, broadbased on higher volume. This week DJIA +79, over the last 9 weeks DJIA +61.

DJTA, SOX +2.5% & RUT leading the way, XAU & DJUA down. CAC, DAX & FTSE all up BIG, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 both up BIG.

Dollar down vs. Euro & up vs. Yen, XAU & gold up, XOI up & crude down @ 56.14, CRB commodities up & bonds down. Contra trend: none.

Sectors: Biotech, Telecom, Transports, Cyclical, Semis all up nicely. Airlines, Gold Bugs, Utilities down.

Bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.49% & the 30 year @ 4.68. The 2 & 5 year gap @ 3 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 7 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap holding @ 19 basis points.

Looking ahead at potential market influences, Nov 21: Leading Indicators; Nov 22: FOMC Minutes; Nov 23: Michigan Sentiment; Crude Inventories; Nov 25 Initial Claims.

Yesterday: "lets see if the market can maintain continuity." Two straight days the market reversed polarity and decoupled itself from crude futures. We need more days like these.

Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong and Hey! Hey! Lets be careful out there...This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!

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