Market Soapbox 01/17/06 UPDATED
Resistance: DJIA 11050; SP500 1295; Nasdaq 2330; NDX 1765
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, on short covering crude oil jumped 3.7% to rise above $66, a three month high. Expect higher costs in the supply chain to take their inflationary toll in the coming months.
After hours Yahoo missed estimates by a penny, down -12.5%; Intel missed estimates by 3 cents a share and gave downside guidance, down 6.5%. AMD downgraded to sell, down 4% to 32.79 and down 12.3% from Thursdays high of 37.39. Google also sold off -2.5%, more to come.
NY Empire State, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization are covered in another post.
17 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 16 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 15 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 14 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 13 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
12 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 11 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 10 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 9 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 8 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
7 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 6 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 5 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 4 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 3 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
2 weeks ago DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. Last week DJIA Flat +0, over the last 16 weeks +255. Today, another broad based sell off, DJIA -64 on lower volume with horrible internals.
XOI & DJUA up BIG, XAU flat, all other indices down, DJTA & SOX pounded down. CAC, DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng all pounded down. Nikkei 225 -2.8% biggest one day fall since April 05.
Sectors: Natural Gas, Oil, Utilities & Commodity up BIG. Transports, Airlines, Networking, Telecom, Pharma, Brokers, Tech, Cyclicals, Semis & Banking all punked BIG.
Dollar up vs. Euro & Yen , XAU flat & gold down @ 554, XOI up & crude up BIG @ 66.31, CRB commodities up.
Yield curve INVERTED BIGTIME bonds up with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.33% & the 30 year @ 4.51. 2 & 5 year gap @ -6 bp; 2 & 10 year gap @ 0 bp; 5 & 10 year gap @ 6 bp; 10 & 30 gap @ 18 bp.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 18 CPI, Core CPI, Net Foreign Purchases, Crude Inventory; Fed Beige Book; Jan 19 Building Permits, Housing Starts, Initial Claims, Philly Fed; Jan 20 Michigan Sentiment.
From Friday: "We are hovering at 1745 NDX and will watch that number for support and any meaningful breech to the downside, additional support awaits at 1730... we look for short covering and irrational exhuberance to raise the bar through the 24th, watching 1795 NDX and the RUT at 730 - 740 as an upper limit. "
Tomorrows CPI should hold no surprises as energy costs dropped during the period. EIA should show a draw after holiday travel and the Beige Book will show inflationary pressures.
We breeched 1745 to the downside and bounced off the critical support level of 1732. Should we breech this level on a closing basis for two consecutive days, look out below.
After short covering is over, oil should pull back leading to one last bounce up to the precipice at 1795.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
UPDATE: After hours Nasdaq Volume Friday 28 Million, Today 59 Million. Nasdaq 100 closed at 1736, afterhours drop 25 points to 1711. After hours action on SPY indicates a SP500 drop of 7 points, DIA action a DJIA drop of 70 points, IWM action a RUT drop of 6 points, SMH action a SOX drop of 2.5%, Look out below.
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, on short covering crude oil jumped 3.7% to rise above $66, a three month high. Expect higher costs in the supply chain to take their inflationary toll in the coming months.
After hours Yahoo missed estimates by a penny, down -12.5%; Intel missed estimates by 3 cents a share and gave downside guidance, down 6.5%. AMD downgraded to sell, down 4% to 32.79 and down 12.3% from Thursdays high of 37.39. Google also sold off -2.5%, more to come.
NY Empire State, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization are covered in another post.
17 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 16 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 15 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 14 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 13 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
12 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 11 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 10 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 9 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 8 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
7 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 6 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 5 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 4 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 3 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
2 weeks ago DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. Last week DJIA Flat +0, over the last 16 weeks +255. Today, another broad based sell off, DJIA -64 on lower volume with horrible internals.
XOI & DJUA up BIG, XAU flat, all other indices down, DJTA & SOX pounded down. CAC, DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng all pounded down. Nikkei 225 -2.8% biggest one day fall since April 05.
Sectors: Natural Gas, Oil, Utilities & Commodity up BIG. Transports, Airlines, Networking, Telecom, Pharma, Brokers, Tech, Cyclicals, Semis & Banking all punked BIG.
Dollar up vs. Euro & Yen , XAU flat & gold down @ 554, XOI up & crude up BIG @ 66.31, CRB commodities up.
Yield curve INVERTED BIGTIME bonds up with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.33% & the 30 year @ 4.51. 2 & 5 year gap @ -6 bp; 2 & 10 year gap @ 0 bp; 5 & 10 year gap @ 6 bp; 10 & 30 gap @ 18 bp.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 18 CPI, Core CPI, Net Foreign Purchases, Crude Inventory; Fed Beige Book; Jan 19 Building Permits, Housing Starts, Initial Claims, Philly Fed; Jan 20 Michigan Sentiment.
From Friday: "We are hovering at 1745 NDX and will watch that number for support and any meaningful breech to the downside, additional support awaits at 1730... we look for short covering and irrational exhuberance to raise the bar through the 24th, watching 1795 NDX and the RUT at 730 - 740 as an upper limit. "
Tomorrows CPI should hold no surprises as energy costs dropped during the period. EIA should show a draw after holiday travel and the Beige Book will show inflationary pressures.
We breeched 1745 to the downside and bounced off the critical support level of 1732. Should we breech this level on a closing basis for two consecutive days, look out below.
After short covering is over, oil should pull back leading to one last bounce up to the precipice at 1795.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
UPDATE: After hours Nasdaq Volume Friday 28 Million, Today 59 Million. Nasdaq 100 closed at 1736, afterhours drop 25 points to 1711. After hours action on SPY indicates a SP500 drop of 7 points, DIA action a DJIA drop of 70 points, IWM action a RUT drop of 6 points, SMH action a SOX drop of 2.5%, Look out below.
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