Market Soapbox 01/19/06
DJIA 11050; SP500 1295; Nasdaq 2330; NDX 1765
Support: DJIA 10725 ; SP500 1265; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1680
On the road again, AMD report was bullish, stock up 11%, AAPL not so good -4%. Housing starts 1933K vs prior 2121K; Building Permits 2068K vs prior 2163K showing a slowing in the housing market.
Initial Claims 271K vs prior 307K stoking inflation fears which hit the bond market. Crude inventories +2741K vs prior -2887K showed a build. Philly Fed 3.3 vs prior 10.9 showing a major economic slowing in that region, not a good sign.
17 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 16 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 15 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 14 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 13 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
12 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 11 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 10 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 9 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 8 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
7 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 6 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 5 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 4 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 3 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
2 weeks ago DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. Last week DJIA Flat +0. Mon. Market Closed; Tues, another broad based sell off, DJIA -64 on lower volume with horrible internals.
Wen, a broad based vortex opened up and sucked the market down, DJIA -41 on higher volume with butt ugly internals. Today, a broad based bounce, DJIA +26 on higher volume with pretty internals. This week DJIA -79 over the last 16 weeks +176.
DJTA RUT, MID, XAU, XOI & SOX all roared. CAC, DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up BIG. Sectors: Everything screaming up except banking & finance.
Dollar up vs. Yen & Euro , XAU & gold up @ 556.60, XOI & crude up @ 67.04, CRB commodities up.
Yield curve INVERTED BIGTIME bonds down with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.54%; 10 yr @ 4.37; 5 yr @ 4.30; 2yr @ 4.37; 6mo @ 4.46; 3mo @ 4.35. 3mo, 6mo & 2yr above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 20 Michigan Sentiment.
From Yesterday: "We don't want to throw the baby out with the bathwater on a potential 1795 peak, but... it would take a herculean turnaround at this point."
"Tech could bounce tomorrow and drift the NDX up to 1736 where we grab a breath of fresh air and you better hold it, because support awaits below at 1680."
Today the NDX covered up its 29 point gap down from yesterday closing at around 1730. We did close below 1730 two straight days, and we need sustained action to the upside to reach for 1761 and make a run for 1795.
The next few days are critical and any loss of traction will be very costly. GE reports tomorrow and the key will be forward guidance.
Afterhours the NYSE volume went from 19M to 38M, AMEX and Nasdaq volume were subdued. Motorola, LSI Logic and Texas Instruments were punished.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10725 ; SP500 1265; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1680
On the road again, AMD report was bullish, stock up 11%, AAPL not so good -4%. Housing starts 1933K vs prior 2121K; Building Permits 2068K vs prior 2163K showing a slowing in the housing market.
Initial Claims 271K vs prior 307K stoking inflation fears which hit the bond market. Crude inventories +2741K vs prior -2887K showed a build. Philly Fed 3.3 vs prior 10.9 showing a major economic slowing in that region, not a good sign.
17 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 16 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 15 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 14 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 13 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
12 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 11 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 10 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 9 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 8 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
7 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 6 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 5 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 4 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 3 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
2 weeks ago DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. Last week DJIA Flat +0. Mon. Market Closed; Tues, another broad based sell off, DJIA -64 on lower volume with horrible internals.
Wen, a broad based vortex opened up and sucked the market down, DJIA -41 on higher volume with butt ugly internals. Today, a broad based bounce, DJIA +26 on higher volume with pretty internals. This week DJIA -79 over the last 16 weeks +176.
DJTA RUT, MID, XAU, XOI & SOX all roared. CAC, DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up BIG. Sectors: Everything screaming up except banking & finance.
Dollar up vs. Yen & Euro , XAU & gold up @ 556.60, XOI & crude up @ 67.04, CRB commodities up.
Yield curve INVERTED BIGTIME bonds down with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.54%; 10 yr @ 4.37; 5 yr @ 4.30; 2yr @ 4.37; 6mo @ 4.46; 3mo @ 4.35. 3mo, 6mo & 2yr above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 20 Michigan Sentiment.
From Yesterday: "We don't want to throw the baby out with the bathwater on a potential 1795 peak, but... it would take a herculean turnaround at this point."
"Tech could bounce tomorrow and drift the NDX up to 1736 where we grab a breath of fresh air and you better hold it, because support awaits below at 1680."
Today the NDX covered up its 29 point gap down from yesterday closing at around 1730. We did close below 1730 two straight days, and we need sustained action to the upside to reach for 1761 and make a run for 1795.
The next few days are critical and any loss of traction will be very costly. GE reports tomorrow and the key will be forward guidance.
Afterhours the NYSE volume went from 19M to 38M, AMEX and Nasdaq volume were subdued. Motorola, LSI Logic and Texas Instruments were punished.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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