Market Observations 04/18/06

Thursday: "Oil prices still hovering near 7 month highs despite crude inventory at an 8 year high and bond yields over 4 year highs."

And it still holds, oil went over $72 per barrel, add gold over $620 at 25 year highs and silver at a 23 year high. All base metals have gone parabolic.

Last week the market consolidated. Mon. OEX, NDX, SP500 fell through 75 DMA. TMWX fell though 50DMA.

Today, the market bounced back with a vengance. The questions you have to ask yourself are:

Does this market have legs, is this a dead cat bounce, can we go to a new highs and do I feel lucky?

Despite negative conditions since October, the market continues to bounce back and rise further.

Something to contemplate and taking from PT Barnum: In this sea of global super liquidity, there is no lack of stupid money (and suckers that it can be separated from).

As Keynes said: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

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