Market Observations 08/22/06

In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead and someone else has taken his place.

The Good News Bears??? Yesterday's down day snapped a 5 day streak, the good news: on the NYSE it was the lowest volume day this year... todays action had neutral breadth and limited participation. Oh yee Bears of little conviction...

Mixed messages here...Last week as tech rose; tech companies giving lowered guidance and Prudential downgrading tech from favorable to neutral; today chipster AMD (+6.3%) getting upgraded again by Bear Stearns...

and here ... Iran said it is "ready to start serious negotiations" tomorrow, which will focus on the nuclear issue, economic cooperation and the region's security. Yeah, right, got it, thanks....

No surprises here... Fed head Guynn saying in Q&A that he sees an "upward creep in inflation".

Or here... Fed head Moskow saying that "the risk of inflation remaining too high is greater than the risk of growth being too low" and that "some additional firming of policy may yet be necessary to bring inflation back into the comfort zone within a reasonable period of time"

Or here... homebuilder's the 2nd worst performing S&P group this year; Toll Brothers cut its Q4 profit projection due to reduced deliveries... Or here... this years the worst performing S&P group; Internet Retail (-37.4%).

Since hitting 1584 on Thurs, the NDX has hit resistance twice at 1574, remember that "waterloo " number?? The market is indecisive and acting like a roulette wheel at this point, on the RUT 665 below, 740 above?? Round and round she goes, where she winds up, nobody knows....

We are beginning to suspect that the flagwaving sideways pattern which commenced 05/24 will continue until around 09/11 - 09/15, where the next major market inflection awaits. An even larger market inflection awaits around 10/11.

Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!

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