Economic Reports & Observations 09/11 - 09/14/06
EIA Petroleum Report crude -2.9M barrels; gasoline +100Kb; distillate +4.7Mb; propane +1.923Mb.
Inside the number: YTD inventories are still at record levels as the price of crude pulled back from $79 to under $64.
10 year bond auction: high yield 4.810%, bid to cover a high 2.91, indirect bidders 18.8%, high for a reopening of the August auction.
August Federal Deficit $64.6B vs prior $33.2B.
Inside the number: for August, the deficit was +25.9% from a deficit of $51.3B reported in the same month last year.
However, for the first 11 months of the fiscal year, the deficit is -14.1% to $304.3B from $354.1B this time last year.
August Trade Gap a record $68B vs prior $64.8B.
Inside the number: +5% in July to $68B. Oil imported $20.8B, the highest amount on record. Exports -1.1%, exports of goods alone -1.5% to $73.4B. The drop was led by capital goods, not a good sign.
Initial Claims Report -5K @ 308K
Inside the number: continuing claims over the past four weeks, remain at relatively high levels. The number of continued claims +18K, to 2.50M.
August Import Prices Report +0.8% vs prior 1%.
Inside the number: Import prices have risen by at least 0.8% in four of the past five months.
Prices for exports from the U.S. +0.4% for the second straight month. Export prices +5.2% in the past year.
Imported petroleum prices +2.3% last month, +25.9% in the past five months. Energy pass through has now infiltrated the supply chain as ex-petroleum, import prices +0.5% the biggest increase since May.
August Retail Sales Report +0.2% vs prior +1.4%
Inside the number: Sales ex autos +0.2%, sales at gasoline stations -1% in August as gasoline prices tumbled.
Spending was boosted in July by high gas prices on the one hand and by bargains at the auto lots on the other. Those factors reversed in August.
Sales excluding both autos and gasoline +0.5% in July and +0.4% in August, not exactly robust numbers.
July Inventories Report +0.6%
Inside the number: The inventory-to-sales ratio stayed at 1.26 in July after a record-low 1.25 in May. The typical business had about 38 days of sales on hand in the back room, an extremely lean inventory.
In the past year, business sales +8.1%, while inventories +7.4%. Manufacturing sales were flat while inventories +0.6%. Wholesale sales +0.5% while inventories +0.8%.
Summary: Record trade and budget deficits, continuning unemployment increases due to lay offs, yet our trade partners keep the dollar afloat as bonds rally and keep interest rates down.
Import & export prices steadily rising due to energy pass through. Inventories are lean but increasing, as sales are flat or dropping on lessened demand.
Record energy inventories and slowing economic conditions are pushing the price of commodities down.
Is this recent drastic broadbased correction just profit taking?? Or is it telegraphing the markets future expectations of a more severe downturn??
Inside the number: YTD inventories are still at record levels as the price of crude pulled back from $79 to under $64.
10 year bond auction: high yield 4.810%, bid to cover a high 2.91, indirect bidders 18.8%, high for a reopening of the August auction.
August Federal Deficit $64.6B vs prior $33.2B.
Inside the number: for August, the deficit was +25.9% from a deficit of $51.3B reported in the same month last year.
However, for the first 11 months of the fiscal year, the deficit is -14.1% to $304.3B from $354.1B this time last year.
August Trade Gap a record $68B vs prior $64.8B.
Inside the number: +5% in July to $68B. Oil imported $20.8B, the highest amount on record. Exports -1.1%, exports of goods alone -1.5% to $73.4B. The drop was led by capital goods, not a good sign.
Initial Claims Report -5K @ 308K
Inside the number: continuing claims over the past four weeks, remain at relatively high levels. The number of continued claims +18K, to 2.50M.
August Import Prices Report +0.8% vs prior 1%.
Inside the number: Import prices have risen by at least 0.8% in four of the past five months.
Prices for exports from the U.S. +0.4% for the second straight month. Export prices +5.2% in the past year.
Imported petroleum prices +2.3% last month, +25.9% in the past five months. Energy pass through has now infiltrated the supply chain as ex-petroleum, import prices +0.5% the biggest increase since May.
August Retail Sales Report +0.2% vs prior +1.4%
Inside the number: Sales ex autos +0.2%, sales at gasoline stations -1% in August as gasoline prices tumbled.
Spending was boosted in July by high gas prices on the one hand and by bargains at the auto lots on the other. Those factors reversed in August.
Sales excluding both autos and gasoline +0.5% in July and +0.4% in August, not exactly robust numbers.
July Inventories Report +0.6%
Inside the number: The inventory-to-sales ratio stayed at 1.26 in July after a record-low 1.25 in May. The typical business had about 38 days of sales on hand in the back room, an extremely lean inventory.
In the past year, business sales +8.1%, while inventories +7.4%. Manufacturing sales were flat while inventories +0.6%. Wholesale sales +0.5% while inventories +0.8%.
Summary: Record trade and budget deficits, continuning unemployment increases due to lay offs, yet our trade partners keep the dollar afloat as bonds rally and keep interest rates down.
Import & export prices steadily rising due to energy pass through. Inventories are lean but increasing, as sales are flat or dropping on lessened demand.
Record energy inventories and slowing economic conditions are pushing the price of commodities down.
Is this recent drastic broadbased correction just profit taking?? Or is it telegraphing the markets future expectations of a more severe downturn??
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