Economic Reports & Observations 12/07/07
The ECB raised rates 25 bps to 3.5%. After raising 25 bps in Nov, the BOE left rates unchanged at 5%. Both the BOE & ECB are expected to raise 25 bps in Feb.
Initial Claims +34K to 324K
Inside the number: Continuing claims rose 57K to 2.52M. The 4 week average of initial claims rose 3.5K to 328,750; the 4 week average of continuing claims rose 20,250 to 2.47M. Both 4 week averages show an uptrend in the number of jobless claims.
Market Observations
During options unwind, the SP500 jumped up to 1418, then fell to 1409. This might propel SP500 towards 1440 during next weeks quadruple witching.
But we sense a deeper pullback to MAX PAIN at 1398 would more adequately refuel the tanks.
The danger of a double top still lurks, and we are still waiting for the NDX & NASDAQ to get over the 11/24 1824 hump on a closing basis for validation of a run to 1860.
A failure at NDX 1810 and break below 1760 would confirm a change of direction, a strong & swift rise above 1810 & close around 1828 would validate continuation of the uptrend.
Initial Claims +34K to 324K
Inside the number: Continuing claims rose 57K to 2.52M. The 4 week average of initial claims rose 3.5K to 328,750; the 4 week average of continuing claims rose 20,250 to 2.47M. Both 4 week averages show an uptrend in the number of jobless claims.
Market Observations
During options unwind, the SP500 jumped up to 1418, then fell to 1409. This might propel SP500 towards 1440 during next weeks quadruple witching.
But we sense a deeper pullback to MAX PAIN at 1398 would more adequately refuel the tanks.
The danger of a double top still lurks, and we are still waiting for the NDX & NASDAQ to get over the 11/24 1824 hump on a closing basis for validation of a run to 1860.
A failure at NDX 1810 and break below 1760 would confirm a change of direction, a strong & swift rise above 1810 & close around 1828 would validate continuation of the uptrend.
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