Economic Reports 01/18/07
Summary: The Bank Of Japan left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%, sparking more carry trade in which speculators profit by borrowing the yen at low rates and reinvesting in higher yielding currencies.
Merrill Lynch Q4 net income +68%, Apple reported a Q1 surge in earnings, but forecast weaker than expected for Q2, stock punished 5%.
CPI rising on energy & housing costs. Housing starts rising, but single family housing still slowing. Initial claims down, but continuning claims rising. Philly Fed bouncing back with rising consumer prices.
CPI Dec +0.5% vs prior FLAT Full Report
Inside the number: Core CPI Dec +0.2% vs prior FLAT. Energy +4.6%. 2006, the CPI +2.5% vs 2005 +3.4%. 2006, Core CPI +2.6% vs 2005 +2.2%, the highest "advertised" core inflation since 2001.
Anyone who pays the bills every month knows that the CPI, with its hedonic adjustments and government finagling, does not give an accurate reading of true inflation. Look here for a reality based reading.
Housing Starts Dec +4.5% to 1.64M Full Report
Inside the number: Building Permits Dec +5.5% to 1.60M. One of 2 increases in the last 10 months, good news? Not so fast Joe, starts of single family homes -4.1% to 1.23 million.
In 2006, starts -12.9%, the biggest decline since 1991, building permits -14.9%, the largest falloff since 1990, starts of single family homes -14.7%.
The seasonally adjusted numbers show that builders are taking advantage of uncharacteristically warm winter weather. Despite this months rise, housing is no where near being out of the woods.
Initial Claims -8K to 290K Full Report
Inside the number: The lowest level in 11 months, 4 week MA -6.5K to 308,000K, good news? Not so fast Joe...
Continuing claims +120,000 to 2.53M, the highest in nearly a year. The 4 week MA of continuing claims +4K to 2.47M.
Philly Fed Jan +8.3 vs prior -2.3 Full Report
Inside the number: An increase on seasonal orders and warmer weather with a rise in prices received.
New orders up to 1.3 from -0.9, shipments up to 23.9 from 14.0, prices paid down to 11.9, prices received up to 11.6 from 8.9, employment up to 7.9 from 7.5.
Merrill Lynch Q4 net income +68%, Apple reported a Q1 surge in earnings, but forecast weaker than expected for Q2, stock punished 5%.
CPI rising on energy & housing costs. Housing starts rising, but single family housing still slowing. Initial claims down, but continuning claims rising. Philly Fed bouncing back with rising consumer prices.
CPI Dec +0.5% vs prior FLAT Full Report
Inside the number: Core CPI Dec +0.2% vs prior FLAT. Energy +4.6%. 2006, the CPI +2.5% vs 2005 +3.4%. 2006, Core CPI +2.6% vs 2005 +2.2%, the highest "advertised" core inflation since 2001.
Anyone who pays the bills every month knows that the CPI, with its hedonic adjustments and government finagling, does not give an accurate reading of true inflation. Look here for a reality based reading.
Housing Starts Dec +4.5% to 1.64M Full Report
Inside the number: Building Permits Dec +5.5% to 1.60M. One of 2 increases in the last 10 months, good news? Not so fast Joe, starts of single family homes -4.1% to 1.23 million.
In 2006, starts -12.9%, the biggest decline since 1991, building permits -14.9%, the largest falloff since 1990, starts of single family homes -14.7%.
The seasonally adjusted numbers show that builders are taking advantage of uncharacteristically warm winter weather. Despite this months rise, housing is no where near being out of the woods.
Initial Claims -8K to 290K Full Report
Inside the number: The lowest level in 11 months, 4 week MA -6.5K to 308,000K, good news? Not so fast Joe...
Continuing claims +120,000 to 2.53M, the highest in nearly a year. The 4 week MA of continuing claims +4K to 2.47M.
Philly Fed Jan +8.3 vs prior -2.3 Full Report
Inside the number: An increase on seasonal orders and warmer weather with a rise in prices received.
New orders up to 1.3 from -0.9, shipments up to 23.9 from 14.0, prices paid down to 11.9, prices received up to 11.6 from 8.9, employment up to 7.9 from 7.5.
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