Economic Reports 02/15/07
Summary: An upturn in the NY manufacturing region was offset by stagnation in the Philly Fed Region.
Retail sales were flat as consumer spending downtrends and foreign inflows reversed to become outflows as net long term inflows hit their lowest level since Jan 2002.
Import & export prices still on the rise, business inventories growing as industrial production & capacity utilization continue to fall, while the ranks of the unemployed swell.
Retail Sales Jan Flat vs +0.9% Full Report
Inside the number: Retail Sales ex-auto +0.3% vs prior +1.0%
The report showed "a continuing trend of weakening growth in consumer spending," wrote Scott Hoyt, an economist for Moody's Economy.com, in an analysis for clients.
Energy prices and, the housing bust will be "formidable obstacles to spending growth."
Business Inventories Dec Flat vs prior +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Retail auto inventories -0.3% while auto sales rose 1%. Excluding autos, retail inventories increased 0.6% while sales rose 1%.
Import Prices ex-oil Jan +0.3% vs prior +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: The 3rd straight increase. Export Prices ex-ag. Jan +0.3% vs prior +0.5%.
Ag prices are +13.5% in the last year, keeping pace with the REAL rate of inflation.
Initial Claims 02/10 +44K to 357K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA +17.5K to 326,250. Continuing claims +71K to 2.56M, 4 week MA +18K to 2.52M.
NY Empire State Index Feb - 24.4 vs prior 9.1 Full Report
Inside the number: news orders rose to 18.9 vs 10.3; shipments rose to 27.1 vs 16.1; inventory -7.5 from -19.2. Employment rose to 12.7 vs 6.9; prices paid fell to 26.9 vs 35.1;prices received fell to 12.9 from 19.2.
TIC Net Foreign Inflows Dec vs -$11B vs prior +$70.5B Full Report
Inside the number: monthly capital flows reversed to an outflow of $11 B compared to an inflow of $70.5 B in November.
Net long term capital inflows, meanwhile, fell to $15.6 B from $84.9 B in November. This is the lowest inflow since January 2002.
Industrial Production Jan -0.5% vs prior +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: the 4th decline in the last 5 months. Capacity Utilization Jan 81.2% vs prior 81.8%. The production of automobiles fell 6%. Ex auto, industrial production -0.2%.
Without the 2.3% rise in utilities output due to bad weather, industrial production would have been much lower.
Philadelphia Fed Feb +0.6 vs prior +8.3 Full Report
Inside the number: new orders declined from 1.3 to -0.5, and has now been negative in three of the past four months.
The shipments index, which increased 10 points in January, declined 22 points this month.
Less jobs and shrinking margins: Employment -8 vs January, Prices paid +4, while prices received -2.
Retail sales were flat as consumer spending downtrends and foreign inflows reversed to become outflows as net long term inflows hit their lowest level since Jan 2002.
Import & export prices still on the rise, business inventories growing as industrial production & capacity utilization continue to fall, while the ranks of the unemployed swell.
Retail Sales Jan Flat vs +0.9% Full Report
Inside the number: Retail Sales ex-auto +0.3% vs prior +1.0%
The report showed "a continuing trend of weakening growth in consumer spending," wrote Scott Hoyt, an economist for Moody's Economy.com, in an analysis for clients.
Energy prices and, the housing bust will be "formidable obstacles to spending growth."
Business Inventories Dec Flat vs prior +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Retail auto inventories -0.3% while auto sales rose 1%. Excluding autos, retail inventories increased 0.6% while sales rose 1%.
Import Prices ex-oil Jan +0.3% vs prior +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: The 3rd straight increase. Export Prices ex-ag. Jan +0.3% vs prior +0.5%.
Ag prices are +13.5% in the last year, keeping pace with the REAL rate of inflation.
Initial Claims 02/10 +44K to 357K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA +17.5K to 326,250. Continuing claims +71K to 2.56M, 4 week MA +18K to 2.52M.
NY Empire State Index Feb - 24.4 vs prior 9.1 Full Report
Inside the number: news orders rose to 18.9 vs 10.3; shipments rose to 27.1 vs 16.1; inventory -7.5 from -19.2. Employment rose to 12.7 vs 6.9; prices paid fell to 26.9 vs 35.1;prices received fell to 12.9 from 19.2.
TIC Net Foreign Inflows Dec vs -$11B vs prior +$70.5B Full Report
Inside the number: monthly capital flows reversed to an outflow of $11 B compared to an inflow of $70.5 B in November.
Net long term capital inflows, meanwhile, fell to $15.6 B from $84.9 B in November. This is the lowest inflow since January 2002.
Industrial Production Jan -0.5% vs prior +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: the 4th decline in the last 5 months. Capacity Utilization Jan 81.2% vs prior 81.8%. The production of automobiles fell 6%. Ex auto, industrial production -0.2%.
Without the 2.3% rise in utilities output due to bad weather, industrial production would have been much lower.
Philadelphia Fed Feb +0.6 vs prior +8.3 Full Report
Inside the number: new orders declined from 1.3 to -0.5, and has now been negative in three of the past four months.
The shipments index, which increased 10 points in January, declined 22 points this month.
Less jobs and shrinking margins: Employment -8 vs January, Prices paid +4, while prices received -2.
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