Super Bowl XLI Analysis
CHI OFF Total #15 324.9, Rush #15 119.9, Pass #14 205.1, Sacks #7 25, RZ% #18 .480, Eff. #21 4.99 ypp.
CHI DEF Total #5 294.1, Rush D #6 99.4, Pass D #11 194.8, Sacks #8 40, TO diff #4 +8, RZD #9 .475, Eff. #2 4.60 ypp.
Path to Super Bowl XLI: Finished 13-3; coming in 7-1; OT SEA 24@ CHI 27; NO 14@ CHI 39.
Strength: of Victory .404; of Schedule .430. Vs Common Opponents 3-2. Vs teams finishing with winning record 5-1.
Vs. Spread: 14-6-1 ATS after allowing 350+ passing yds, 7-1 ATS after passing for <150>150 yds.
With 2 weeks rest 0-4 ATS, 2-5 ATS after allowing 250+ passing yds, 2-5 ATS after beating the spread, 1-4 ATS after scoring 30+ pts, OVER 13-3 on grass, OVER 11-4-1.
IND OFF Total #3 379.4, Rush #18 110.1, Pass #2 269.2, Sacks #1 15, RZ% #2 .661, Eff. #2 6.00 ypp.
IND DEF Total #21 332.2, Rush D #32 173, Pass D #2 159.2, Sacks #30 25, TO diff #7 +7, RZD #31 .588, Eff. #29 5.54 ypp.
Path to Super Bowl XLI: Finished 12-4; coming in 5-1; KC 8 @ IND 23; IND 15 @BAL 6; NE 34@ IND 38.
Strength: of Victory .505; of Schedule .500. Vs Common Opponents 6-0. Vs Teams finishing with winning record 8-1.
Vs Spread: 9-4-1 ATS on grass, vs NFC 3-1 ATS, 4-0 ATS after scoring 30+ pts, OVER 8-3 on grass, OVER 7-2 as road favorite, OVER 8-8.
7-11 ATS with two weeks rest, 1-4 ATS after passing 350+ yds.
Last 3 games:
Key #1: The Colts will be able pass and should be able to run vs a pourous Chicago defense.
IND O 383 yd vs CHI D 351 yds; IND Pass 246 yds 10.1 ypc vs CHI Pass D 258 yds 11.7 ypc; IND Rush 138 yds 3.9 ypc vs CHI Rush D 93 yds 3.6 ypc.
Key #2: The Colt D is playing much better than Da Bears D. CHI may have trouble running the ball, that means Grossman has to throw.
CHI O 342 yds vs IND D 229 yds; CHI rush 150 yds 4.3 ypc vs IND Rush D 73 yds 3.6 ypc; CHI pass 192 yds 14.4 ypc vs IND pass D 156 yds 8.8 ypc.
Last 5 games:
Key #3: The Bears pass D without the pass rush of Tommie Harris is pourous, the Colts could have a big day in the air. Should the Colt D stop the Bear ground game, it will be difficult for the Bears to throw.
CHI pass D allowed 1334 yards. IND pass D allowed 836 yards. 1334 vs 836 yds, thats a BIG difference. Note: Indy CB Harper nursing a sprained ankle and is questionable.
Key #4: Weak Bear Pass D tries to blitz Manning into mistakes? Against the league leading Colt pass protection, it could be a long day for Da Bear secondary.
Last 5, Da Bears got 11 sacks and gave up 11 sacks. Last 5, Colts got 8 sacks and gave up only 6 sacks.
The Colts O-line protects Manning, allowing a league low 15 sacks in the regular season, 6 post season and only 1 sack every 40 passing attempts.
Key #5: The Colts have had great success in the face of much tougher competition.
The Bears strength of victory .404 & schedule .430 vs the Colts strength of victory .505 & schedule .505. Vs Common Opponents CHI 3-2; IND 6-0.
Vs teams finishing with a winning record: Colts 8-1 with 2 W's vs NE. Bears 5-1 with 2 of those W's vs feeble SEA.
Key #6: Turnovers, the Bears once mighty D has gone into hibernation, while the Colts once weak rush defense has become, no pun intended, Bearish.
The Bad news Bears gave up 36 TO's, the most of any playoff team. 25 of those 36 are Grossman's directly, 20 INTS and 5 fumbles. Meanwhile Da Bear D snagged 44 TO's, but has slipped in the last 4 games to only 1.3 per game.
The Colts coughed up the rock only 19 times this season, 9 of those INT's, but in the playoffs 6 ints, no fumbles. The Colt D got 26 TO's in the regular season, stepping up in the playoffs forcing 8 and 2.7 per game.
Last regular season meeting: November 2004 at CHI, with lineups essentially the same as today, but with differing records and attitudes. Urlacher, Tillman & Grossman did not play, the Colts humiliated the Bears 41-10.
Breakdown: The Bears benefitted from a weak division, conference and schedule. Yet they could only manage to stumble and bumble past SEA and then got a "bad weather" 5 TO home pass from NO.
Reflect on this, after spotting the Patriots a 21-3 lead, the Colts decimated NE in the last 35 minutes 35-13, 395 yds net, 6 of 8 drives scoring, 7 drives of +59 yds, holding NE to 8 yds rushing on 5 atts.
As any team on any given Sunday does, the Bears have a punchers chance. Indy's lines are small and quick, Chicago needs to use its superior line size on both sides of the ball to win the battle in the trenches.
Da Bears must run effectively, control the clock, throw no interceptions, pressure Manning and hope for alot of Colt turnovers & red zone failures.
In summary, within the last 5 games, on all scales, this game on paper is a mismatch and could be a very ugly affair. But, unlike NCAA Division 1 fantasy BCS, thats why in the NFL, they play the games.
Last year we rode the Steeler Bus all the way through the playoffs, this year we are riding the Colts pony express.
55% of the public thinks the Colts will win, while 58% of bettors are taking the Bears +6.5.
Our prediction: An entertaining game, IND to WIN and cover -6.5
CHI DEF Total #5 294.1, Rush D #6 99.4, Pass D #11 194.8, Sacks #8 40, TO diff #4 +8, RZD #9 .475, Eff. #2 4.60 ypp.
Path to Super Bowl XLI: Finished 13-3; coming in 7-1; OT SEA 24@ CHI 27; NO 14@ CHI 39.
Strength: of Victory .404; of Schedule .430. Vs Common Opponents 3-2. Vs teams finishing with winning record 5-1.
Vs. Spread: 14-6-1 ATS after allowing 350+ passing yds, 7-1 ATS after passing for <150>150 yds.
With 2 weeks rest 0-4 ATS, 2-5 ATS after allowing 250+ passing yds, 2-5 ATS after beating the spread, 1-4 ATS after scoring 30+ pts, OVER 13-3 on grass, OVER 11-4-1.
IND OFF Total #3 379.4, Rush #18 110.1, Pass #2 269.2, Sacks #1 15, RZ% #2 .661, Eff. #2 6.00 ypp.
IND DEF Total #21 332.2, Rush D #32 173, Pass D #2 159.2, Sacks #30 25, TO diff #7 +7, RZD #31 .588, Eff. #29 5.54 ypp.
Path to Super Bowl XLI: Finished 12-4; coming in 5-1; KC 8 @ IND 23; IND 15 @BAL 6; NE 34@ IND 38.
Strength: of Victory .505; of Schedule .500. Vs Common Opponents 6-0. Vs Teams finishing with winning record 8-1.
Vs Spread: 9-4-1 ATS on grass, vs NFC 3-1 ATS, 4-0 ATS after scoring 30+ pts, OVER 8-3 on grass, OVER 7-2 as road favorite, OVER 8-8.
7-11 ATS with two weeks rest, 1-4 ATS after passing 350+ yds.
Last 3 games:
Key #1: The Colts will be able pass and should be able to run vs a pourous Chicago defense.
IND O 383 yd vs CHI D 351 yds; IND Pass 246 yds 10.1 ypc vs CHI Pass D 258 yds 11.7 ypc; IND Rush 138 yds 3.9 ypc vs CHI Rush D 93 yds 3.6 ypc.
Key #2: The Colt D is playing much better than Da Bears D. CHI may have trouble running the ball, that means Grossman has to throw.
CHI O 342 yds vs IND D 229 yds; CHI rush 150 yds 4.3 ypc vs IND Rush D 73 yds 3.6 ypc; CHI pass 192 yds 14.4 ypc vs IND pass D 156 yds 8.8 ypc.
Last 5 games:
Key #3: The Bears pass D without the pass rush of Tommie Harris is pourous, the Colts could have a big day in the air. Should the Colt D stop the Bear ground game, it will be difficult for the Bears to throw.
CHI pass D allowed 1334 yards. IND pass D allowed 836 yards. 1334 vs 836 yds, thats a BIG difference. Note: Indy CB Harper nursing a sprained ankle and is questionable.
Key #4: Weak Bear Pass D tries to blitz Manning into mistakes? Against the league leading Colt pass protection, it could be a long day for Da Bear secondary.
Last 5, Da Bears got 11 sacks and gave up 11 sacks. Last 5, Colts got 8 sacks and gave up only 6 sacks.
The Colts O-line protects Manning, allowing a league low 15 sacks in the regular season, 6 post season and only 1 sack every 40 passing attempts.
Key #5: The Colts have had great success in the face of much tougher competition.
The Bears strength of victory .404 & schedule .430 vs the Colts strength of victory .505 & schedule .505. Vs Common Opponents CHI 3-2; IND 6-0.
Vs teams finishing with a winning record: Colts 8-1 with 2 W's vs NE. Bears 5-1 with 2 of those W's vs feeble SEA.
Key #6: Turnovers, the Bears once mighty D has gone into hibernation, while the Colts once weak rush defense has become, no pun intended, Bearish.
The Bad news Bears gave up 36 TO's, the most of any playoff team. 25 of those 36 are Grossman's directly, 20 INTS and 5 fumbles. Meanwhile Da Bear D snagged 44 TO's, but has slipped in the last 4 games to only 1.3 per game.
The Colts coughed up the rock only 19 times this season, 9 of those INT's, but in the playoffs 6 ints, no fumbles. The Colt D got 26 TO's in the regular season, stepping up in the playoffs forcing 8 and 2.7 per game.
Last regular season meeting: November 2004 at CHI, with lineups essentially the same as today, but with differing records and attitudes. Urlacher, Tillman & Grossman did not play, the Colts humiliated the Bears 41-10.
Breakdown: The Bears benefitted from a weak division, conference and schedule. Yet they could only manage to stumble and bumble past SEA and then got a "bad weather" 5 TO home pass from NO.
Reflect on this, after spotting the Patriots a 21-3 lead, the Colts decimated NE in the last 35 minutes 35-13, 395 yds net, 6 of 8 drives scoring, 7 drives of +59 yds, holding NE to 8 yds rushing on 5 atts.
As any team on any given Sunday does, the Bears have a punchers chance. Indy's lines are small and quick, Chicago needs to use its superior line size on both sides of the ball to win the battle in the trenches.
Da Bears must run effectively, control the clock, throw no interceptions, pressure Manning and hope for alot of Colt turnovers & red zone failures.
In summary, within the last 5 games, on all scales, this game on paper is a mismatch and could be a very ugly affair. But, unlike NCAA Division 1 fantasy BCS, thats why in the NFL, they play the games.
Last year we rode the Steeler Bus all the way through the playoffs, this year we are riding the Colts pony express.
55% of the public thinks the Colts will win, while 58% of bettors are taking the Bears +6.5.
Our prediction: An entertaining game, IND to WIN and cover -6.5
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