Economic Reports 07/12/07
Summary: Same store sales with mixed results as John Q pulls back further.
Defaults surging and foreclosures at a record high as the housing debacle continues.
Continuing unemployment worsens as the bleed from housing continues into other sectors.
Yet, stocks jumped to record highs on the "good" news that exports hit a record high.
However our Nattering Analysis reveals that the medias trade gap "stabilization" is illusory at best.
Further analysis reveals a slowing economy with continued growing upside risk to domestic price stagflation.
Read on if you dare...
ICSC Same Store Sales +2.4%
Inside the number: The slowest June increase in 4 years. Feb - June YTD increase is 50% of last years as unit sales are down but sales are up on inflated prices.
47% beat the number, 51% missed. Department store sales -2.5%; Wholesale clubs +6.3%; Discounters +2.1%
Costco +6%, Target +3.3%, Wal-Mart +2.4%, JC Penney -1.5%, Macy's -2.7%, Kmart -3.9%, Sears -4%, Kohl's -4.9%; The Gap -5%.
Realtytrac Defaults & Foreclosures Full Report
YTD defaults surged 87% to 164,644. June's total was 7% lower than in May. California, Florida, Ohio and Michigan accounted for 50% of the national total in June.
YTD foreclosures +56% with almost 926K foreclosure notices filed. In June, foreclosures were the highest in California and Florida, where some home prices have fallen as much as 25%...
and Ohio and Michigan, where the automotive industry has fired more than 50,000 people in the past 10 years.
Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate in June with one filing for every 175 households, more than four times the national average of one per 704.
California had the 2nd highest rate, with one filing per 315 households, and the most filings overall, 38,801, for the sixth month in a row.
California's foreclosure rate is up 300% from last year. Six of the top 10 U.S. foreclosure rates for metropolitan areas are in California:
#1 Stockton, #2 Merced, #3 Modesto, #4 Riverside-San Bernardino, #7 Vallejo-Fairfield and #8 Sacramento.
An estimated 58% of properties in the foreclosure process are linked to borrowers with subprime loans...
and RealtyTrac expects U.S. foreclosures to reach 1.8 million by year's end.
The Nattering One muses, with $600M to $1B in ARM mortgage resets hitting in the 2nd half of this year, me thinks 1.8M is a low number.
Initial Claims 07/07 -12K at 308K vs prior 320K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 2K. 4 week MA -1.5K at 317.75K. Continuing claims -4K at 2.554M; 4 week MA +17.5K at 2.5285M.
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
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State Change State Supplied Comment
CA +1,161 service
NC +1,170 transportation equipment, furniture
CT +1,375 no comment.
MI +1,813 automobile
IN +1,993 automobile
NJ +2,127 transportation, warehousing, public administration, construction, trade, service
KY +2,416 automobile, manufacturing
NY +3,974 transportation, service
Trade Balance May -$60.0B vs prior -$58.7B Full Report
Inside the number: The trade gap deficit increased +2.3% as the YOY deficit narrowed on higher export prices.
Due to a devalued dollar, exports hit a record $132 Billion on stagflated export prices.
Prior revised up -$0.2 B. Trade deficit increased +2.3%; Exports +$2.9B; Imports +$4.2B; Goods deficit +$1.7B @ -$69B.
The good news: YOY goods & services deficit narrowed $5.7B as inflated $ spent on exports +11.1% vs imports +4.1%.
The bad news...YTD % change NOT adjusted for inflation (exhibits 7, 8, 9) which shows dollars spent:
Imports: food +8.9%; industrial supplies -1%; capital goods +7%; consumer goods +10.7%; non petroleum +5.4% ; petroleum -2.3%.
Exports: food +20.8%; industrial supplies +12.3%; capital goods +6.5%; consumer goods +13.6%; non petroleum +11.1%; petroleum +9.2%.
YTD % change adjusted for inflation (exhibits 10,11) which shows consumption:
Imports: foods +1.9%; industrial supplies -3.4%; capital goods +6.8%; consumer goods +8.9%; non petroleum +3.1%; petroleum -1.1%
Exports: foods +2.5%; industrial supplies +4.9%; capital goods +5.7%; consumer goods +10.8%; non petroleum +6.7%; petroleum +8%
The difference between the adjusted & gross figure is the inflated price. For example unadjusted exported foods +20.8% - adjusted 2.5% = +18.3% price increase.
Therefore... strictly for import & export pricing and NOT domestic pricing:
Imports: foods +7%; industrial supplies -2.4%; capital goods +0.2%; consumer goods +1.8%; non petroleum +2.3%; petroleum -1.2%
Exports: foods +18.3%; industrial supplies +7.4%; capital goods +0.8%; consumer goods +2.8%; non petroleum +4.4%; petroleum +1.2%.
The inverse relationship between import & export of industrial supplies & petroleum tells us we are slowing down.
The increases in import & export pricing of foods & industrial supplies can greatly influence domestic prices throughout the supply chain.
Defaults surging and foreclosures at a record high as the housing debacle continues.
Continuing unemployment worsens as the bleed from housing continues into other sectors.
Yet, stocks jumped to record highs on the "good" news that exports hit a record high.
However our Nattering Analysis reveals that the medias trade gap "stabilization" is illusory at best.
Further analysis reveals a slowing economy with continued growing upside risk to domestic price stagflation.
Read on if you dare...
ICSC Same Store Sales +2.4%
Inside the number: The slowest June increase in 4 years. Feb - June YTD increase is 50% of last years as unit sales are down but sales are up on inflated prices.
47% beat the number, 51% missed. Department store sales -2.5%; Wholesale clubs +6.3%; Discounters +2.1%
Costco +6%, Target +3.3%, Wal-Mart +2.4%, JC Penney -1.5%, Macy's -2.7%, Kmart -3.9%, Sears -4%, Kohl's -4.9%; The Gap -5%.
Realtytrac Defaults & Foreclosures Full Report
YTD defaults surged 87% to 164,644. June's total was 7% lower than in May. California, Florida, Ohio and Michigan accounted for 50% of the national total in June.
YTD foreclosures +56% with almost 926K foreclosure notices filed. In June, foreclosures were the highest in California and Florida, where some home prices have fallen as much as 25%...
and Ohio and Michigan, where the automotive industry has fired more than 50,000 people in the past 10 years.
Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate in June with one filing for every 175 households, more than four times the national average of one per 704.
California had the 2nd highest rate, with one filing per 315 households, and the most filings overall, 38,801, for the sixth month in a row.
California's foreclosure rate is up 300% from last year. Six of the top 10 U.S. foreclosure rates for metropolitan areas are in California:
#1 Stockton, #2 Merced, #3 Modesto, #4 Riverside-San Bernardino, #7 Vallejo-Fairfield and #8 Sacramento.
An estimated 58% of properties in the foreclosure process are linked to borrowers with subprime loans...
and RealtyTrac expects U.S. foreclosures to reach 1.8 million by year's end.
The Nattering One muses, with $600M to $1B in ARM mortgage resets hitting in the 2nd half of this year, me thinks 1.8M is a low number.
Initial Claims 07/07 -12K at 308K vs prior 320K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 2K. 4 week MA -1.5K at 317.75K. Continuing claims -4K at 2.554M; 4 week MA +17.5K at 2.5285M.
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
State Change State Supplied Comment
CA +1,161 service
NC +1,170 transportation equipment, furniture
CT +1,375 no comment.
MI +1,813 automobile
IN +1,993 automobile
NJ +2,127 transportation, warehousing, public administration, construction, trade, service
KY +2,416 automobile, manufacturing
NY +3,974 transportation, service
Trade Balance May -$60.0B vs prior -$58.7B Full Report
Inside the number: The trade gap deficit increased +2.3% as the YOY deficit narrowed on higher export prices.
Due to a devalued dollar, exports hit a record $132 Billion on stagflated export prices.
Prior revised up -$0.2 B. Trade deficit increased +2.3%; Exports +$2.9B; Imports +$4.2B; Goods deficit +$1.7B @ -$69B.
The good news: YOY goods & services deficit narrowed $5.7B as inflated $ spent on exports +11.1% vs imports +4.1%.
The bad news...YTD % change NOT adjusted for inflation (exhibits 7, 8, 9) which shows dollars spent:
Imports: food +8.9%; industrial supplies -1%; capital goods +7%; consumer goods +10.7%; non petroleum +5.4% ; petroleum -2.3%.
Exports: food +20.8%; industrial supplies +12.3%; capital goods +6.5%; consumer goods +13.6%; non petroleum +11.1%; petroleum +9.2%.
YTD % change adjusted for inflation (exhibits 10,11) which shows consumption:
Imports: foods +1.9%; industrial supplies -3.4%; capital goods +6.8%; consumer goods +8.9%; non petroleum +3.1%; petroleum -1.1%
Exports: foods +2.5%; industrial supplies +4.9%; capital goods +5.7%; consumer goods +10.8%; non petroleum +6.7%; petroleum +8%
The difference between the adjusted & gross figure is the inflated price. For example unadjusted exported foods +20.8% - adjusted 2.5% = +18.3% price increase.
Therefore... strictly for import & export pricing and NOT domestic pricing:
Imports: foods +7%; industrial supplies -2.4%; capital goods +0.2%; consumer goods +1.8%; non petroleum +2.3%; petroleum -1.2%
Exports: foods +18.3%; industrial supplies +7.4%; capital goods +0.8%; consumer goods +2.8%; non petroleum +4.4%; petroleum +1.2%.
The inverse relationship between import & export of industrial supplies & petroleum tells us we are slowing down.
The increases in import & export pricing of foods & industrial supplies can greatly influence domestic prices throughout the supply chain.
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