Market Soapbox Week Ending 07/13/07
MON, DJIA +38 on lower volume with midlin internals. All UP. Bonds up, 10 yr yield -4 bps 5.14, $ up vs 1.362E & vs 123.391Y, WTI crude down $72.19, gold up 1.2% $662.5
TUE, triple digit plunge, DJIA -148 on average volume with fugly internals. All UP cept DJUA, XAU. Bonds up BIG 10 yr yield -11 bps 5.03, $ punked vs 1.3729E & vs 121.985Y, WTI crude up $72.81, gold up $664.4
WEN, rebound, DJIA +76 on below average volume with OK internals. All UP cept SOXX, XAU. Bonds down10 yr yield +5bps 5.08, $ down vs 1.3753E & up vs 122.22Y, WTI crude down $72.56, gold down $662.1.
THU, a roman candle, DJIA +284 on average volume with sparkling internals. All UP BIG. Bonds down 10 yr yield +6bps 5.14, $ up vs 122.45y & down vs 1.3785E, gold up 1% $668.4, WTI crude up $72.58
FRI, followthrough DJIA +46 on lower volume with midlin internals. All UP cept SOXX. Bonds up 10 yr yield -4bps 5.10, $ down vs 121.93y & up vs 1.3783E, gold down $667.3, WTI crude up 2% $74
This week, DJIA +296, since 09/19/05 DJIA +3302. CRB commodities up 320.86 to 325.09
XAU up from 145 to 151.08 & gold up from $654.8 to $667.3. XOI up from 1459.08 to 1514.99 & WTI crude up from $72.81 to $74 an 11 month high.
Volatility VIX up 14.72 to 15.15. Dollar index down 81.42 to 80.58. $ down vs Yen 123.334 to 121.93 & down vs Euro 1.3628 to 1.3783.
This week bonds up BIG 30yr -8bps; 10yr -8bps, 5yr -9bps, 2yr -6bps, 6mo +4bps. 30 yr @ 5.19%; 10 yr @ 5.10; 5 yr @ 5.00; 2yr @ 4.92; 6 mo @ 5.04.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27/05 - 3/29/06; 06/08/06 - 02/22/07; 05/02/07 - 06/07/07; 2yr above 30 yr 02/09/06 - 3/29/06; 11/03/06- 03/01/07. 6mo above 10yr 06/02/06 -06/07/07; 6mo above 30yr 06/13/06 - 05/25/07.
6mo above 2 yr 06/25/07 - ??? above 5 yr 07/11/07 - ????
Resistance: DJIA 14000; SP500 1560; NAZ 2750; NDX 2045
Support: DJIA 13530; SP500 1520; NAZ 2620; NDX 1945
Last night afterhours volume surge NYSE 839M; AMEX 648M; NAZ 658M. Q2 warning from Motorola.
S&P taking their Tuesday warning one step further by downgrading $6.4 B in subprime mortgage backed debt
Today, $4.5B in Fed reanimation. NDX 2021 to 2032; SP500 1547 to 1552, DJUA 510 to 515, SOXX hanging at 529. DJIA within 68 points of 14K.
We suspect NDX 2042 or 2082 could be a ceiling. We also believe that the debt/bond market problems are just beginning...
and this has created a rebalancing of portfolios favoring stocks. SP500 closed above 1550, breaking all time high 1553 intraday.
Let's see if it can hang there awhile longer. Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
TUE, triple digit plunge, DJIA -148 on average volume with fugly internals. All UP cept DJUA, XAU. Bonds up BIG 10 yr yield -11 bps 5.03, $ punked vs 1.3729E & vs 121.985Y, WTI crude up $72.81, gold up $664.4
WEN, rebound, DJIA +76 on below average volume with OK internals. All UP cept SOXX, XAU. Bonds down10 yr yield +5bps 5.08, $ down vs 1.3753E & up vs 122.22Y, WTI crude down $72.56, gold down $662.1.
THU, a roman candle, DJIA +284 on average volume with sparkling internals. All UP BIG. Bonds down 10 yr yield +6bps 5.14, $ up vs 122.45y & down vs 1.3785E, gold up 1% $668.4, WTI crude up $72.58
FRI, followthrough DJIA +46 on lower volume with midlin internals. All UP cept SOXX. Bonds up 10 yr yield -4bps 5.10, $ down vs 121.93y & up vs 1.3783E, gold down $667.3, WTI crude up 2% $74
This week, DJIA +296, since 09/19/05 DJIA +3302. CRB commodities up 320.86 to 325.09
XAU up from 145 to 151.08 & gold up from $654.8 to $667.3. XOI up from 1459.08 to 1514.99 & WTI crude up from $72.81 to $74 an 11 month high.
Volatility VIX up 14.72 to 15.15. Dollar index down 81.42 to 80.58. $ down vs Yen 123.334 to 121.93 & down vs Euro 1.3628 to 1.3783.
This week bonds up BIG 30yr -8bps; 10yr -8bps, 5yr -9bps, 2yr -6bps, 6mo +4bps. 30 yr @ 5.19%; 10 yr @ 5.10; 5 yr @ 5.00; 2yr @ 4.92; 6 mo @ 5.04.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27/05 - 3/29/06; 06/08/06 - 02/22/07; 05/02/07 - 06/07/07; 2yr above 30 yr 02/09/06 - 3/29/06; 11/03/06- 03/01/07. 6mo above 10yr 06/02/06 -06/07/07; 6mo above 30yr 06/13/06 - 05/25/07.
6mo above 2 yr 06/25/07 - ??? above 5 yr 07/11/07 - ????
Resistance: DJIA 14000; SP500 1560; NAZ 2750; NDX 2045
Support: DJIA 13530; SP500 1520; NAZ 2620; NDX 1945
Last night afterhours volume surge NYSE 839M; AMEX 648M; NAZ 658M. Q2 warning from Motorola.
S&P taking their Tuesday warning one step further by downgrading $6.4 B in subprime mortgage backed debt
Today, $4.5B in Fed reanimation. NDX 2021 to 2032; SP500 1547 to 1552, DJUA 510 to 515, SOXX hanging at 529. DJIA within 68 points of 14K.
We suspect NDX 2042 or 2082 could be a ceiling. We also believe that the debt/bond market problems are just beginning...
and this has created a rebalancing of portfolios favoring stocks. SP500 closed above 1550, breaking all time high 1553 intraday.
Let's see if it can hang there awhile longer. Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
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