Band Aids: ARM Rate Freeze & Rate Cuts

German Bank Bailout...

The biggest shareholder in IKB Deutsche Industriebank said Thursday that the pool of banks that stepped in to support the troubled bank will cover additional risks estimated at $520 million.

IKB Deutsche Industriebank delayed its 1st half reporting as primary shareholder (38%) KfW said it had raised the resulting risk shield for IKB by $3.4 billion to $7.1 billion.

Beat & Miss... Big Lots beat by 2 cents, lowered forward guidance dropped the stock 5% to a 52 week low.

#2 PC maker Dell missed, 1% decline in desktop sales, lowered forward guidance, plans to layoff 8000, stock down 14%

How Long & Far... Centex CEO Timothy Eller:

"This looks like it's going to be the deepest correction of any housing correction since World War II, and the question really is, What's the duration, how long will it be?"

Expect more... Morgan Stanley said Nov. 7 that it lost $3.7 billion in Sept & Oct. on trades related to subprime mortgages.

Maximum potential losses from subprime-related assets stood at $6 billion, down from $10.4 billion at the end of August.

Yesterday, Morgan announced: "Disclosures in early November reflect the full extent of the firm's direct subprime-related exposure, as of October 31." MS plans to announce Q4 earnings during the week of Dec. 17.

Band Aids... Bennie & The Ink Jets hinted to a Dec. 11 rate cut.

The White House and lenders are near a deal to curtail rate hikes on adjustable rate mortages. Subprime borrowers may be able to freeze rates for an extended period or refi to a fixed rate loan.

The Nattering One muses... Cut all you want, 75 bps in rate cuts have done nothing to lower mortgage rates or curtail foreclosures. Will a rate freeze on ARM's help?

Over half of the subprime foreclosures to date occured BEFORE the first rate reset, and the non sub prime foreclosures (Alt-A & Prime) continue to mount.

Not even an FHA loan limit increase (jumbo market bailout) can stop this trainwreck in progress. Why?

The price levels were never justified nor rational. Forcing reversion to the mean and then some.

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