You Can Fool Most People, Most of The Time
Summary: Q3 real GDP revised upward to 4.9% annual growth rate from a previously reported 3.9%. Sounds great, except several "small" problems.
The "growth" was on export price increases or stagflation being exported vis a vis a debauched dollar.
Durable & non durable manufacturing and housing activity was anemic. In addition...
New home prices dropped the most since 1970 and jobless claims rose to a nine month high.
Foreclosures doubled YOY, consumer spending is plunging and Florida suspended withdrawals on their state run fund.
ETrade bailout... E*Trade announced that affiliates of Citadel Investment Group are providing a $2.5 billion cash infusion and that its CEO is stepping down.
Florida State Fund Update... The Local Government Investment Pool had $3.5 billion of withdrawals today alone, putting assets at $15 billion down from $27 Billion.
Florida officials voted to suspend withdrawals from an investment fund for schools and local governments after redemptions sparked by downgrades of debt held in the portfolio reduced assets by 44%.
The pool was created in 1982 to provide higher short-term returns for local schools and governments than were available at banks.
Officials raised the possibility of having the state pension fund shoulder the risk of some of the troubled securities with a credit-default swap...
through which the $137 Billion Pension Fund would guarantee the debt in exchange for an insurance premium.
Hal Wilson, chief financial officer for the school district in Jefferson County referring to his $850K payroll: "I might not be able to pay our employees tomorrow.
I am sure that those money managers who withdrew all their funds are feeling really smug right now, thinking they did the right thing. But it left the rest of us holding the bag."
The Nattering One muses... Absolutetly brillant, transfer the risk to the pensions to save the short term money market funds.
Does Hank Paulson or any of his buddies on Wall Street advise these guys too?
Who will get caught holding the bag when Hank & his buddies push the prostitutes in Congress to bail them out of their own mess? Take a wild guess...
Keep your eyes on Christopher Dodd and make sure his committee sits on Barney Franks FHA Bailout and does NOT increase the limits of his own Senate bill.
Me thinks the Honorable Mr. Dodd's Christmas stocking may be full of many large envelopes stuffed with cash from the banks and Wall Street firms.
Employment down... Initial Claims +23K at 352K vs prior 329K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA +5.75K at 335.25K; Continuing Unemployment at 2.665M +112K; 4 week MA 2.589M +20.5K.
Housing down... RealtyTrac said foreclosure activity increased 2% in October, not much, but there was also a 94% jump year-over-year.
The Commerce Department said median home sales prices in October tumbled at the steepest rate since 1970 on a year-over-year basis to $217,800, a 13% drop.
New Home Sales for October +1.7% at 728K Full Report
Inside the number: An increase over Sept revised down to 716K from 770K. Sales West -15.7%;
Inventory -2.3%; YOY Monthly Supply +19.7%. YTD Sales: -24.2%; NE +3.6%; MW --23%; S -24.6%; W -30.4%.
Spending down... Britt Beemer, founder of America's Research Group: "Kmart and Sears have been in a downward spiral for the last two years. I think you're in a major free-fall."
Thanksgiving weekend surveys by Beemers group indicated that both chains have 20% fewer shoppers than they did three years ago.
Sears Holdings Corp reported Q3 net income fell 99%; revenue fell 3% as domestic same-store sales fell 4.2% at Sears Roebuck and 5% at Kmart.
The Nattering One muses... So Q3 GDP was 4.9%? What about Q4? Me still thinks zero or negative.
Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets: "We are likely to see growth of less than 1 percent in the fourth quarter."
The GDP numbers should be filed under: You can't fool all of the people all of the time, but if you lie enough, you can fool most of the people, most of the time.
The "growth" was on export price increases or stagflation being exported vis a vis a debauched dollar.
Durable & non durable manufacturing and housing activity was anemic. In addition...
New home prices dropped the most since 1970 and jobless claims rose to a nine month high.
Foreclosures doubled YOY, consumer spending is plunging and Florida suspended withdrawals on their state run fund.
ETrade bailout... E*Trade announced that affiliates of Citadel Investment Group are providing a $2.5 billion cash infusion and that its CEO is stepping down.
Florida State Fund Update... The Local Government Investment Pool had $3.5 billion of withdrawals today alone, putting assets at $15 billion down from $27 Billion.
Florida officials voted to suspend withdrawals from an investment fund for schools and local governments after redemptions sparked by downgrades of debt held in the portfolio reduced assets by 44%.
The pool was created in 1982 to provide higher short-term returns for local schools and governments than were available at banks.
Officials raised the possibility of having the state pension fund shoulder the risk of some of the troubled securities with a credit-default swap...
through which the $137 Billion Pension Fund would guarantee the debt in exchange for an insurance premium.
Hal Wilson, chief financial officer for the school district in Jefferson County referring to his $850K payroll: "I might not be able to pay our employees tomorrow.
I am sure that those money managers who withdrew all their funds are feeling really smug right now, thinking they did the right thing. But it left the rest of us holding the bag."
The Nattering One muses... Absolutetly brillant, transfer the risk to the pensions to save the short term money market funds.
Does Hank Paulson or any of his buddies on Wall Street advise these guys too?
Who will get caught holding the bag when Hank & his buddies push the prostitutes in Congress to bail them out of their own mess? Take a wild guess...
Keep your eyes on Christopher Dodd and make sure his committee sits on Barney Franks FHA Bailout and does NOT increase the limits of his own Senate bill.
Me thinks the Honorable Mr. Dodd's Christmas stocking may be full of many large envelopes stuffed with cash from the banks and Wall Street firms.
Employment down... Initial Claims +23K at 352K vs prior 329K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA +5.75K at 335.25K; Continuing Unemployment at 2.665M +112K; 4 week MA 2.589M +20.5K.
Housing down... RealtyTrac said foreclosure activity increased 2% in October, not much, but there was also a 94% jump year-over-year.
The Commerce Department said median home sales prices in October tumbled at the steepest rate since 1970 on a year-over-year basis to $217,800, a 13% drop.
New Home Sales for October +1.7% at 728K Full Report
Inside the number: An increase over Sept revised down to 716K from 770K. Sales West -15.7%;
Inventory -2.3%; YOY Monthly Supply +19.7%. YTD Sales: -24.2%; NE +3.6%; MW --23%; S -24.6%; W -30.4%.
Spending down... Britt Beemer, founder of America's Research Group: "Kmart and Sears have been in a downward spiral for the last two years. I think you're in a major free-fall."
Thanksgiving weekend surveys by Beemers group indicated that both chains have 20% fewer shoppers than they did three years ago.
Sears Holdings Corp reported Q3 net income fell 99%; revenue fell 3% as domestic same-store sales fell 4.2% at Sears Roebuck and 5% at Kmart.
The Nattering One muses... So Q3 GDP was 4.9%? What about Q4? Me still thinks zero or negative.
Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets: "We are likely to see growth of less than 1 percent in the fourth quarter."
The GDP numbers should be filed under: You can't fool all of the people all of the time, but if you lie enough, you can fool most of the people, most of the time.
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