Economic Reports 12/20/07
Summary: Initial claims... unemployment worsening and becoming more pernicious, as the bleed from housing into other sectors continues unabated.
Leading Indicators... broad based economic malaise in sight with declines in four of the last six months.
Philly Fed... in contraction and confirming expectations for future activity have decreased sharply.
GDP... price stagflation being passed off as growth, while the entrails of a durable economy disintegrate...
and the greedy corporate sector begins to get its just desserts in the form of lower profits.
Initial Claims 12/15 +12K at 346K vs prior 334K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA +4.25K at 343K. Continuing unemployment +12K at 2.646M; 4 week MA +23K at 2.633M
Leading Indicators Nov -0.4% vs prior -0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: The leading index decreased sharply for the second consecutive month in November, and it has been down in four of the last six months.
Slow economic growth is likely in the near term, risks for further economic weakness have increased.
Negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were stock prices, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted),
index of consumer expectations, real money supply, building permits, interest rate spread, and manufacturers new orders for consumer goods and materials.
Philadelphia Fed Dec -5.7% vs prior +8.2 Full Report
Inside the number: the indicator for general activity fell notably in December. Price pressures continue to be reported by manufacturing executives.
Firms expectations for future activity have deteriorated sharply in the past two months, suggesting that a slower rate of growth is expected during the first half of 2008.
GDP-Final Q3 4.9% vs Q2 3.8% Full Report
Inside the number: The acceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected accelerations in exports, in PCE, and in private inventory investment...
that were partly offset by an upturn in imports, a larger decrease in residential fixed investment, and a deceleration in nonresidential structures.
Profits before tax -$51.8 billion vs +$115.7 billion in Q2. Profits from current production -$20.5 billion vs +$94.7 billion.
Current-production cash flow -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- -$21.1 billion vs +$37.4 billion.
Taxes on corporate income -$20.7 billion vs +$37.6 billion. Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments +$0.3 billion vs +$57.0 billion.
Domestic profits: Financial corporations -$32.5 billion vs +$52.7 billion. Nonfinancial corporations -$14.4 billion vs +$25.3 billion.
Leading Indicators... broad based economic malaise in sight with declines in four of the last six months.
Philly Fed... in contraction and confirming expectations for future activity have decreased sharply.
GDP... price stagflation being passed off as growth, while the entrails of a durable economy disintegrate...
and the greedy corporate sector begins to get its just desserts in the form of lower profits.
Initial Claims 12/15 +12K at 346K vs prior 334K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA +4.25K at 343K. Continuing unemployment +12K at 2.646M; 4 week MA +23K at 2.633M
Leading Indicators Nov -0.4% vs prior -0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: The leading index decreased sharply for the second consecutive month in November, and it has been down in four of the last six months.
Slow economic growth is likely in the near term, risks for further economic weakness have increased.
Negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were stock prices, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted),
index of consumer expectations, real money supply, building permits, interest rate spread, and manufacturers new orders for consumer goods and materials.
Philadelphia Fed Dec -5.7% vs prior +8.2 Full Report
Inside the number: the indicator for general activity fell notably in December. Price pressures continue to be reported by manufacturing executives.
Firms expectations for future activity have deteriorated sharply in the past two months, suggesting that a slower rate of growth is expected during the first half of 2008.
GDP-Final Q3 4.9% vs Q2 3.8% Full Report
Inside the number: The acceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected accelerations in exports, in PCE, and in private inventory investment...
that were partly offset by an upturn in imports, a larger decrease in residential fixed investment, and a deceleration in nonresidential structures.
Profits before tax -$51.8 billion vs +$115.7 billion in Q2. Profits from current production -$20.5 billion vs +$94.7 billion.
Current-production cash flow -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- -$21.1 billion vs +$37.4 billion.
Taxes on corporate income -$20.7 billion vs +$37.6 billion. Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments +$0.3 billion vs +$57.0 billion.
Domestic profits: Financial corporations -$32.5 billion vs +$52.7 billion. Nonfinancial corporations -$14.4 billion vs +$25.3 billion.
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