Market Soapbox Week Ending 12/21/07
MON, triple digit followthrough, DJIA -173 on lower volume with horrible internals. All DOWN BIG. Bonds up 10 yr yield -7bps 4.17, $ up vs 1.4388E & down vs 113.03y, WTI down $90.72, gold up $799.3
TUE, wavy gravy, DJIA +65 on average volume with decent internals. All UP. Bonds up 10 yr yield -5bps 4.12, $ down vs 1.4414E & up vs 113.389y, WTI crude down $90.27, gold up 1% $807.4
WEN, split tape, DJIA -26 on lower volume with poor internals. All DOWN cept NAZ, NDX, SOXX, XOI, RUT . Bonds up 10 yr yield -9bps 4.03, $ up vs 1.4376E & down vs 113.355y, WTI up 1.5% $91.49, gold down $805.4
THU, more chop, DJIA +38 on lower volume with midlin internals. All UP cept DJTA, DJUA. Bonds down 10 yr yield +1bps 4.04, $ up vs 1.4324E & down vs 113.085y, WTI down $91.18, gold down $803.2
FRI, triple digit jump, DJIA +205 on high volume with nice internals. All UP BIG. Bonds down 10 yr yield +13 bps 4.17, $ down vs 1.438E & up vs 114.03y, WTI +2.5% $93.31, gold +1.5% $815.4
This week, DJIA +109, since 09/19/05 DJIA +2839. CRB commodities up 348.6 to 354.23
XAU up 165.8 to 167.56 & gold up 798 to 815.4. XOI up 1482.64 to 1547.35 & WTI up 91.27 to 93.31
Volatility VIX down 23.27 to 18.47. Dollar index up 77.39 to 77.62. $ up vs Yen 113.28 to 114.03 & vs Euro 1.443 to 1.438
This week bonds up cept 6 mo. 30yr -8bps; 10yr -7bps, 5yr -5bps, 2yr -12bps, 6mo +8bps. 30 yr @ 4.58%; 10 yr @ 4.17; 5 yr @ 3.58; 2yr @ 3.19; 6 mo @ 3.33.
Resistance: DJIA 13465 (100DMA); SP500 1485 (100DMA); NAZ 2690 (75DMA); NDX 2110 (50DMA)
Support: DJIA 13160 (250DMA); SP500 1460 (300DMA); NAZ 2575 (250DMA); NDX 2020 (150DMA)
NDX gap up 2070 to 2100, sideways to close 2111. SP500 open 1463, rise to close 1483
Thurs: "Is it a rally or a dead cat bounce? Clues: watch test of resistance at 2100-2120 or support at 2020-2000." NDX & SP500 both at resistance.
Until proven otherwise, this tech disconnect rally smells like a PPT sponsored head fake for month, quarter and year end window dressing.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not!
TUE, wavy gravy, DJIA +65 on average volume with decent internals. All UP. Bonds up 10 yr yield -5bps 4.12, $ down vs 1.4414E & up vs 113.389y, WTI crude down $90.27, gold up 1% $807.4
WEN, split tape, DJIA -26 on lower volume with poor internals. All DOWN cept NAZ, NDX, SOXX, XOI, RUT . Bonds up 10 yr yield -9bps 4.03, $ up vs 1.4376E & down vs 113.355y, WTI up 1.5% $91.49, gold down $805.4
THU, more chop, DJIA +38 on lower volume with midlin internals. All UP cept DJTA, DJUA. Bonds down 10 yr yield +1bps 4.04, $ up vs 1.4324E & down vs 113.085y, WTI down $91.18, gold down $803.2
FRI, triple digit jump, DJIA +205 on high volume with nice internals. All UP BIG. Bonds down 10 yr yield +13 bps 4.17, $ down vs 1.438E & up vs 114.03y, WTI +2.5% $93.31, gold +1.5% $815.4
This week, DJIA +109, since 09/19/05 DJIA +2839. CRB commodities up 348.6 to 354.23
XAU up 165.8 to 167.56 & gold up 798 to 815.4. XOI up 1482.64 to 1547.35 & WTI up 91.27 to 93.31
Volatility VIX down 23.27 to 18.47. Dollar index up 77.39 to 77.62. $ up vs Yen 113.28 to 114.03 & vs Euro 1.443 to 1.438
This week bonds up cept 6 mo. 30yr -8bps; 10yr -7bps, 5yr -5bps, 2yr -12bps, 6mo +8bps. 30 yr @ 4.58%; 10 yr @ 4.17; 5 yr @ 3.58; 2yr @ 3.19; 6 mo @ 3.33.
Resistance: DJIA 13465 (100DMA); SP500 1485 (100DMA); NAZ 2690 (75DMA); NDX 2110 (50DMA)
Support: DJIA 13160 (250DMA); SP500 1460 (300DMA); NAZ 2575 (250DMA); NDX 2020 (150DMA)
NDX gap up 2070 to 2100, sideways to close 2111. SP500 open 1463, rise to close 1483
Thurs: "Is it a rally or a dead cat bounce? Clues: watch test of resistance at 2100-2120 or support at 2020-2000." NDX & SP500 both at resistance.
Until proven otherwise, this tech disconnect rally smells like a PPT sponsored head fake for month, quarter and year end window dressing.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not!
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