Q1 GDP; Initial Claims; May Existing Home Sales; Lennar
Summary: Headline reads: initial claims flat as expected.
Under the sheets... unemployment worsens taking continuing levels to new heights.
Headline reads: home resales beat estimates. Under the sheets...
a small increase on a 16% price decline out West with inventory still at levels twice that of a "stable" market.
Headline reads: US economy grew at 1% in Q1, matching expectations. Under the sheets...
grim reality as an inventory build (spending decline) flatlines real growth for the 3rd straight quarter while double digit stagflation rages on.
Initial Claims 06/21 Flat at 384K vs 384K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA +2.25K at 378.25K. Continuing unemployment +82K at 3.139M; 4 week MA +7.5K at 3.103M
Existing Home Sales May +2% at 4.99M vs 4.89M Full Report
Inside the number: Yoy -15.9%; YTD -16.3%; inventory -3.6% 10.8 vs 11.2 months; Yoy +21.3%; median price Yoy -6.3%.
SFR sales +1.6%; Yoy -14.5%; YTD -15.2%; inventory -2.8% 10.4 vs 10.7 months; Yoy +19.5%; median price Yoy -6.8%
Yoy sales West -12.8%; MW -16.5%; South -17%; NE -15%; Median Price West -16%
Lennar, #2 U.S. homebuilder, reported its fifth straight quarterly loss (-$121 million) as the company was forced to cut prices to attract buyers.
Revenue -61%; deliveries -60%; new orders -45%; cancellation rate 22%; backlog -56%; price -8%
CEO Stuart Miller: "The remainder of 2008 will likely see further deterioration in overall market conditions."
GDP-Final Q1 +1.0% vs +0.6% Full Report
Inside the number: Q4 "growth" revised down from +0.9% to +0.6%.
"The small acceleration in real GDP primarily reflected an upturn in inventory investment that was partly offset by a deceleration in PCE."
Real residential fixed investment -24.6 vs -25.2%; Consumer PCE decelerating +1.1% vs +2.3%; durables -6% vs +2%; non durables -0.2% vs +1.2%.
Real gross national product decelerating to zero; +0.2% vs +1.9%; John Q collapsing: Final Sales to domestic purchasers falls to zero; +0.1% vs +1.3%.
How slow is it? Despite imported oil spiking to $130 a barrel: Goods Imports -1.9% vs -2.6%.
The "economy", services contribution to GDP: Medical +0.62; Other +0.39 = +1.01%.
Current dollar GDP (+3.7% vs +3%) & PCE price indexes reflecting stagflation accelerating at double digits.
Table 4 Price Index: Goods Exported +10.2%; Imported +13.6%
Corporate profits? Table 12: -172.9 billion; non financial -145.7 billion Table 11: after tax -7.8% vs +1.1%; Yoy -3.6%.
Emasculation in Appendix A: structures -11.9% vs -7%; motor vehicle output -16.7% vs -26%; farm gross value added -8% vs -3.3%
The Nattering One muses... Our national economy now resembles that of Florida: service based, hospitality and care for the elderly.
We are screwed and there is NOTHING that can stop this train wreck in progress.
Under the sheets... unemployment worsens taking continuing levels to new heights.
Headline reads: home resales beat estimates. Under the sheets...
a small increase on a 16% price decline out West with inventory still at levels twice that of a "stable" market.
Headline reads: US economy grew at 1% in Q1, matching expectations. Under the sheets...
grim reality as an inventory build (spending decline) flatlines real growth for the 3rd straight quarter while double digit stagflation rages on.
Initial Claims 06/21 Flat at 384K vs 384K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA +2.25K at 378.25K. Continuing unemployment +82K at 3.139M; 4 week MA +7.5K at 3.103M
Existing Home Sales May +2% at 4.99M vs 4.89M Full Report
Inside the number: Yoy -15.9%; YTD -16.3%; inventory -3.6% 10.8 vs 11.2 months; Yoy +21.3%; median price Yoy -6.3%.
SFR sales +1.6%; Yoy -14.5%; YTD -15.2%; inventory -2.8% 10.4 vs 10.7 months; Yoy +19.5%; median price Yoy -6.8%
Yoy sales West -12.8%; MW -16.5%; South -17%; NE -15%; Median Price West -16%
Lennar, #2 U.S. homebuilder, reported its fifth straight quarterly loss (-$121 million) as the company was forced to cut prices to attract buyers.
Revenue -61%; deliveries -60%; new orders -45%; cancellation rate 22%; backlog -56%; price -8%
CEO Stuart Miller: "The remainder of 2008 will likely see further deterioration in overall market conditions."
GDP-Final Q1 +1.0% vs +0.6% Full Report
Inside the number: Q4 "growth" revised down from +0.9% to +0.6%.
"The small acceleration in real GDP primarily reflected an upturn in inventory investment that was partly offset by a deceleration in PCE."
Real residential fixed investment -24.6 vs -25.2%; Consumer PCE decelerating +1.1% vs +2.3%; durables -6% vs +2%; non durables -0.2% vs +1.2%.
Real gross national product decelerating to zero; +0.2% vs +1.9%; John Q collapsing: Final Sales to domestic purchasers falls to zero; +0.1% vs +1.3%.
How slow is it? Despite imported oil spiking to $130 a barrel: Goods Imports -1.9% vs -2.6%.
The "economy", services contribution to GDP: Medical +0.62; Other +0.39 = +1.01%.
Current dollar GDP (+3.7% vs +3%) & PCE price indexes reflecting stagflation accelerating at double digits.
Table 4 Price Index: Goods Exported +10.2%; Imported +13.6%
Corporate profits? Table 12: -172.9 billion; non financial -145.7 billion Table 11: after tax -7.8% vs +1.1%; Yoy -3.6%.
Emasculation in Appendix A: structures -11.9% vs -7%; motor vehicle output -16.7% vs -26%; farm gross value added -8% vs -3.3%
The Nattering One muses... Our national economy now resembles that of Florida: service based, hospitality and care for the elderly.
We are screwed and there is NOTHING that can stop this train wreck in progress.
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