Market Soapbox 10/13/08
MON, thud & MEOW, DJIA +936 on average volume with sterling internals. All UP 10%.
Bonds clubbed 10yr +19bps 4.06%. $ porked vs 1.368 & vs 102.975y, WTI +5% $82.33, gold -2% $843.4; TED Spread down-7bps 4.57%
SP500 899, gap up 912, rocket ride to 1006, close 1003. NDX 1270, gap up 1338, dip to 1318, rocket ride to close 1429.
FRI: SP500 bounces from down 7.3% on the 3rd highest volume ever, at today's low: SP500 -22% this week; the worst ever;
-46% from its all time high. A near term bottom perhaps, a sucker rally or dead cat bounce is due.
Over the weekend: GM and Chrysler privately held merger talks.
Overnight: Japan Holiday; Hang Seng +10.2%, FTSE +7.1%, CAC +11.2%, DAX +11.4%. Nikkei up 8% in early trading.
Today, MEOW and how... The ECB will lend unlimited amounts of dollars; Royal Bank of Scotland; HBOS and Lloyds will get an unprecedented $64 billion bailout from the U.K.
15 eurozone countries said they will guarantee new bank debt until the end of 2009. US Treasury will invest $250 billion to buy preferred shares in 9 different US banks.
A blanket guarantee of bank deposits and a direct injection of $2.3 Trillion in capital into good banks.
Has someone been reading our posts here? re: RECAPITALIZATION
DJIA largest point gain ever and largest % gain since 1933. SP500 posts largest one day % gain since 1938.
Whats good? Oil under $72 intraday; cheaper housing; less stagflation; more rate cuts;
Whats bad... 90 day Libor still at 4.75%; bonds clubbed with 30 yr mortgages rising.
If you think a 35.5% YOY decline in consumer stock market wealth and a 7.4% YOY decline & average 25% decline in house prices won't sink this emasculated economy,
You need to put down the crack pipe your smoking and check into rehab NOW. The road to recovery is not through DENIAL, which is not a river.
Do not be fooled... so the housing FNMA & FHLMC and the banking system is now NATIONALIZED.
Whats next? lower earnings; more layoffs; 8% unemployment; officially negative GDP; further housing price declines; and further stock price declines.
We will see at SP500 1020 or 1050 if this bounce has any legs. It could last two days or two weeks;
but the gravity of the situation; is not done yet. This storm is not over and the effects will last for years.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not
Bonds clubbed 10yr +19bps 4.06%. $ porked vs 1.368 & vs 102.975y, WTI +5% $82.33, gold -2% $843.4; TED Spread down-7bps 4.57%
SP500 899, gap up 912, rocket ride to 1006, close 1003. NDX 1270, gap up 1338, dip to 1318, rocket ride to close 1429.
FRI: SP500 bounces from down 7.3% on the 3rd highest volume ever, at today's low: SP500 -22% this week; the worst ever;
-46% from its all time high. A near term bottom perhaps, a sucker rally or dead cat bounce is due.
Over the weekend: GM and Chrysler privately held merger talks.
Overnight: Japan Holiday; Hang Seng +10.2%, FTSE +7.1%, CAC +11.2%, DAX +11.4%. Nikkei up 8% in early trading.
Today, MEOW and how... The ECB will lend unlimited amounts of dollars; Royal Bank of Scotland; HBOS and Lloyds will get an unprecedented $64 billion bailout from the U.K.
15 eurozone countries said they will guarantee new bank debt until the end of 2009. US Treasury will invest $250 billion to buy preferred shares in 9 different US banks.
A blanket guarantee of bank deposits and a direct injection of $2.3 Trillion in capital into good banks.
Has someone been reading our posts here? re: RECAPITALIZATION
DJIA largest point gain ever and largest % gain since 1933. SP500 posts largest one day % gain since 1938.
Whats good? Oil under $72 intraday; cheaper housing; less stagflation; more rate cuts;
Whats bad... 90 day Libor still at 4.75%; bonds clubbed with 30 yr mortgages rising.
If you think a 35.5% YOY decline in consumer stock market wealth and a 7.4% YOY decline & average 25% decline in house prices won't sink this emasculated economy,
You need to put down the crack pipe your smoking and check into rehab NOW. The road to recovery is not through DENIAL, which is not a river.
Do not be fooled... so the housing FNMA & FHLMC and the banking system is now NATIONALIZED.
Whats next? lower earnings; more layoffs; 8% unemployment; officially negative GDP; further housing price declines; and further stock price declines.
We will see at SP500 1020 or 1050 if this bounce has any legs. It could last two days or two weeks;
but the gravity of the situation; is not done yet. This storm is not over and the effects will last for years.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not
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