NY Empire Index; PPI; Retail Sales; UK Update
Business grinding to a halt... NY Empire Index Oct -24.6 vs -7.4%, the lowest reading ever.
new orders index fell to a record low -20.45, and the indexes for shipments -8.85, unfilled orders -12.2, and inventories -17.7 all declined sharply.
John Q. has no money and can't borrow any... Sept Retail Sales, 3rd consecutive decline; the 1st time that has happened since records began in 1992.
Sept -1.2% vs -0.4%; ex auto -0.6%; furniture -2.3%; clothing -2.3%
Ex autos, gasoline and building materials, the sales decline accelerated to -0.7% vs -0.4%.
Cars and light trucks sold at a 12.5 million annual pace in September, the fewest since 1993.
October sales may drop to an 11 million pace, the first time the rate has dropped below 12 million since April 1983.
Petrol & Tampons... The only categories registering gains last month were service stations +0.1% and health and personal care stores +0.4%.
Don't look at the non seasonally adjusted data in table 2b; total sales -8.5%; most categories with double digit declines; only 1 increase non store retailers.
Stagflation in the supply chain, still ragin at double digits... Sept PPI -0.4% vs -0.9%; ex food & energy still rising +0.4%;
Despite oil going from $148 to $77; Yoy PPI +8.7%; ex food & energy +4%, the largest jump since 1991.
Nine months ending Sept 2008: Intermediate materials +15%; non durable +30%; durable +18%; crude +16%; finished goods +8%.
We repeat one of our mantras: ANYONE claiming that inflation is under double digits is either a paid liar or a fool.
Meanwhile across the pond... UK Yoy inflation +5.2%; at its fastest pace since measurements began in 1997;
food inflation decelerating +12.7% vs +14.5% for the month.
The BOE mythical core, which strips out costs of food, energy, tobacco and alcoholic beverages,
still accelerated to 2.2%, the fastest pace since at least 1997.
Excluding mortgage interest payments, retail price inflation +5.5%, the fastest pace since 1992.
Speaking of mortgages... U.K. home sales fell in September to the lowest level in 30 years.
Crap icing on the shitcake... British unemployment today posted its biggest rise 5.7 vs 5.2% since the country's last recession 17 years ago.
David Blanchflower, member of the BOE monetary policy committee:
"These numbers are truly horrendous and much worse than I had feared."
John Philpott, CIPD Chief Economist:
"It's been an awful autumn so far for the economy and the jobs market is now being crunched.
Today's official figures are dire A real pay squeeze is adding to the jobs crunch. Pay rises have fallen back just as price inflation has surged.
The combination of mounting job losses, heightened job insecurity and shrinking real incomes means people are hardly likely to be rushing out to spend."
The Nattering One muses... these figures predate the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the turbulence which followed...
therefore, unemployment is likely to rise further through the winter. Last night on Charlie Rose; Noriel Rubini echoing our predictions...
The recapitalization plan has avoided a complete systemic failure, but will not stop the deepening economic disaster to come.
How long? Not even halfway there, deepening recession perhaps not bottoming till late 2010.
Further housing price declines; foreclosures and massive small bank failures all worsening the economic situation.
The single most important factor: US consumer spending which comprises 25% of GLOBAL GDP.
Again, we have too words for you: GET READY, the fallout or the worst is yet to come.
new orders index fell to a record low -20.45, and the indexes for shipments -8.85, unfilled orders -12.2, and inventories -17.7 all declined sharply.
John Q. has no money and can't borrow any... Sept Retail Sales, 3rd consecutive decline; the 1st time that has happened since records began in 1992.
Sept -1.2% vs -0.4%; ex auto -0.6%; furniture -2.3%; clothing -2.3%
Ex autos, gasoline and building materials, the sales decline accelerated to -0.7% vs -0.4%.
Cars and light trucks sold at a 12.5 million annual pace in September, the fewest since 1993.
October sales may drop to an 11 million pace, the first time the rate has dropped below 12 million since April 1983.
Petrol & Tampons... The only categories registering gains last month were service stations +0.1% and health and personal care stores +0.4%.
Don't look at the non seasonally adjusted data in table 2b; total sales -8.5%; most categories with double digit declines; only 1 increase non store retailers.
Stagflation in the supply chain, still ragin at double digits... Sept PPI -0.4% vs -0.9%; ex food & energy still rising +0.4%;
Despite oil going from $148 to $77; Yoy PPI +8.7%; ex food & energy +4%, the largest jump since 1991.
Nine months ending Sept 2008: Intermediate materials +15%; non durable +30%; durable +18%; crude +16%; finished goods +8%.
We repeat one of our mantras: ANYONE claiming that inflation is under double digits is either a paid liar or a fool.
Meanwhile across the pond... UK Yoy inflation +5.2%; at its fastest pace since measurements began in 1997;
food inflation decelerating +12.7% vs +14.5% for the month.
The BOE mythical core, which strips out costs of food, energy, tobacco and alcoholic beverages,
still accelerated to 2.2%, the fastest pace since at least 1997.
Excluding mortgage interest payments, retail price inflation +5.5%, the fastest pace since 1992.
Speaking of mortgages... U.K. home sales fell in September to the lowest level in 30 years.
Crap icing on the shitcake... British unemployment today posted its biggest rise 5.7 vs 5.2% since the country's last recession 17 years ago.
David Blanchflower, member of the BOE monetary policy committee:
"These numbers are truly horrendous and much worse than I had feared."
John Philpott, CIPD Chief Economist:
"It's been an awful autumn so far for the economy and the jobs market is now being crunched.
Today's official figures are dire A real pay squeeze is adding to the jobs crunch. Pay rises have fallen back just as price inflation has surged.
The combination of mounting job losses, heightened job insecurity and shrinking real incomes means people are hardly likely to be rushing out to spend."
The Nattering One muses... these figures predate the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the turbulence which followed...
therefore, unemployment is likely to rise further through the winter. Last night on Charlie Rose; Noriel Rubini echoing our predictions...
The recapitalization plan has avoided a complete systemic failure, but will not stop the deepening economic disaster to come.
How long? Not even halfway there, deepening recession perhaps not bottoming till late 2010.
Further housing price declines; foreclosures and massive small bank failures all worsening the economic situation.
The single most important factor: US consumer spending which comprises 25% of GLOBAL GDP.
Again, we have too words for you: GET READY, the fallout or the worst is yet to come.
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