Market Soapbox 12/02/08
TUE, bounce, DJIA +270 on higher volume with sterling internals. ALL up 3%+.
Bonds up 10 yr -6bps 2.67%, $ down vs E1.2719 & vs 93.175y, WTI -5% $46.96 gold +1% $783.3, TED spread -2bps 2.16%. 3mo Libor -1bps 2.21.
SP500 817, rise to close 848. NDX 1091, gap up 1109, dip to 1091, rise to 1132, close 1130.
FRI: A 5 day rally SP500 +96 on horrible news? What in the hell are these ebullient idiots smoking? Get ready as a major reality check is coming soon.
MON: a reality check in spades with the 4th worst point decline in history; SP500 -80.
Construction Spending Oct -1.2% vs -0.3% - ISM Index Nov 36.2 vs 38.9; the lowest in 26 yrs.
And finally... NBER confirmed the US recession began in Dec 07; NDX at 976 by Mon.
Today, semiconductor equipment market is expected to decline 28% in 2008 and 21% in 2009. Yoy auto sales GM -41%; Ford -30%; Chrysler -47%; Toyota -34%; Honda -32%.
And then the panhandling... GM $18 billion; $4 billion to finish this year. Chrysler $7 billion; Ford $9 billion.
Ford CEO does an Iacocca, sez he'll take a $1 salary and ditch the jets.
Large losses... Beazer -$474 million on -44% revenue. All time lows... 10 yr at 2.67%; 30 yr at 3.17%.
Name brands ready to crash? Sears -$146 Million on -8.3% revenue. Short term borrowing +$1.9 billion, only $1.17 billion in cash, 24% less than a year earlier.
A serious rally? Who is kidding who? Sell into "strength" before the next of many plunges to come.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
Bonds up 10 yr -6bps 2.67%, $ down vs E1.2719 & vs 93.175y, WTI -5% $46.96 gold +1% $783.3, TED spread -2bps 2.16%. 3mo Libor -1bps 2.21.
SP500 817, rise to close 848. NDX 1091, gap up 1109, dip to 1091, rise to 1132, close 1130.
FRI: A 5 day rally SP500 +96 on horrible news? What in the hell are these ebullient idiots smoking? Get ready as a major reality check is coming soon.
MON: a reality check in spades with the 4th worst point decline in history; SP500 -80.
Construction Spending Oct -1.2% vs -0.3% - ISM Index Nov 36.2 vs 38.9; the lowest in 26 yrs.
And finally... NBER confirmed the US recession began in Dec 07; NDX at 976 by Mon.
Today, semiconductor equipment market is expected to decline 28% in 2008 and 21% in 2009. Yoy auto sales GM -41%; Ford -30%; Chrysler -47%; Toyota -34%; Honda -32%.
And then the panhandling... GM $18 billion; $4 billion to finish this year. Chrysler $7 billion; Ford $9 billion.
Ford CEO does an Iacocca, sez he'll take a $1 salary and ditch the jets.
Large losses... Beazer -$474 million on -44% revenue. All time lows... 10 yr at 2.67%; 30 yr at 3.17%.
Name brands ready to crash? Sears -$146 Million on -8.3% revenue. Short term borrowing +$1.9 billion, only $1.17 billion in cash, 24% less than a year earlier.
A serious rally? Who is kidding who? Sell into "strength" before the next of many plunges to come.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
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