Market Soapbox 12/03/08
WEN, more head fake, DJIA +173 on average volume with sterling internals. All UP 2%+ cept XAU, XOI.
Bonds flat 10 yr 2.67, $ up vs E1.271 & vs 93.36y, WTI down $46.65, gold -1.5% $772.7, TED spread +3bps 2.19%.; 3 mo Libor -1bps 2.2%
SP500 848, gap down 843 dive to 827, rise to close 870. NDX 1130, gap down 1103, rise to close 1166.
FRI: A 5 day rally SP500 +96 on horrible news? What in the hell are these ebullient idiots smoking? Get ready as a major reality check is coming soon.
MON: reality check the 4th worst point decline in history; SP500 -80. Construction Spending Oct -1.2%; ISM Index Nov 36.2; the lowest in 26 yrs.
And finally... the US recession began in Dec 07; NDX at 976 by Mon.
TUE: semiconductor equipment market to decline 28% in 2008 and 21% in 2009. Yoy auto sales GM -41%; Ford -30%; Chrysler -47%; Toyota -34%; Honda -32%.
Today, Nov ADP private nonfarm employment -250K vs -179K. Nov ISM services, 37.3 vs 44.4;
the lowest level since the report started in 1997. New Zealand cut its rate by 150bps to 5.00%.
And pigs will fly... UBS's David Bianco: Global stocks will withstand a “full-blown” recession and surge in 2009. The SP500 may rally 5% to 1,300 by the end of 2009.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
Bonds flat 10 yr 2.67, $ up vs E1.271 & vs 93.36y, WTI down $46.65, gold -1.5% $772.7, TED spread +3bps 2.19%.; 3 mo Libor -1bps 2.2%
SP500 848, gap down 843 dive to 827, rise to close 870. NDX 1130, gap down 1103, rise to close 1166.
FRI: A 5 day rally SP500 +96 on horrible news? What in the hell are these ebullient idiots smoking? Get ready as a major reality check is coming soon.
MON: reality check the 4th worst point decline in history; SP500 -80. Construction Spending Oct -1.2%; ISM Index Nov 36.2; the lowest in 26 yrs.
And finally... the US recession began in Dec 07; NDX at 976 by Mon.
TUE: semiconductor equipment market to decline 28% in 2008 and 21% in 2009. Yoy auto sales GM -41%; Ford -30%; Chrysler -47%; Toyota -34%; Honda -32%.
Today, Nov ADP private nonfarm employment -250K vs -179K. Nov ISM services, 37.3 vs 44.4;
the lowest level since the report started in 1997. New Zealand cut its rate by 150bps to 5.00%.
And pigs will fly... UBS's David Bianco: Global stocks will withstand a “full-blown” recession and surge in 2009. The SP500 may rally 5% to 1,300 by the end of 2009.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
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