Economic Reports 02/10/09
As reported last week... Initial jobless claims week of January 17 +62K to 589K vs 527K.
Companies cut 524K workers in December, bringing total job cuts for the last 12 months to almost 2.6 million.
And the Beat... The slump in home construction accelerated, contracting at a 24% pace in Q4 vs a 16% Q3 decline.
The year-on-year rate is an abysmal minus 35%. (This engine created 80% of all new jobs since 2001.)
Goes On... New home sales set a new low with sales down 2.9% in November to a 407K annual rate.
This week... Nov Existing Home Purchases Dec. +6.5% at 4.74M vs 4.45M
Kool Aid guzzling realtors and hook in mouth media parrots jumped on the "good" news
as the "best housing report of the great housing slump". Under the sheets...median price -15% Yoy,
the biggest decline since records began in 1968 and probably the largest decline since the 1930's great depression.
Nov. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index... confirming the grim data:
steepening acceleration -19.1% year-on-year for the report's composite 10 index and -18.2% for the composite 20 index.
Month-on-month rates show declines of 2.2% for both indexes as 80% of all sales;
were previously foreclosed properties that had been steeply discounted at liquidation prices.
Home prices fell in 24 of 25 U.S. metropolitan areas in November from a year earlier.
Losses out West are dramatic to say the least: -32.9% Phoenix; -31.6% Las Vegas, -30.8% San Francisco, -26.9% LA, -25.% San Diego.
Nov. Radar Logic Report gives double confirmation: San Francisco Bay Area saw the biggest drop,
with the average price per square foot falling 36.8%. Phoenix had the next biggest decline, falling 34.6%, and Las Vegas slumped 32.4%.
These losses point to rising levels of West Coast foreclosures and banking failures.
Falling home prices point to rising foreclosures and even greater stress on the banking system.
Dec RealtyTrac Foreclosure filings provide more validation: Yoy jumped 41% in December to 303,410.
Chicago PMI Jan 33.3 vs 35.3... order readings showing continuing and severe month-to-month contraction.
The production index is especially weak while the employment index shows the largest drop of any index.
Durable Goods Dec -2.6% vs - 3.7% in Nov. Ex-transportation, new orders -3.6% vs -1.7% the prior month.
Year-on-year, new orders for durable goods -21.% in from -15.7% in November.
The contraction in orders is widespread and accelerating as all major industries posted declines except for electrical equipment and transportation.
And transportation would have been quite negative other than for a spike in defense aircraft +16.4%;
meanwhile... motor vehicles and nondefense aircraft dropped 5.2% and 43.6%.
Q4 GDP Deeper and Wider... Media Parrots: The 3.8% annual pace of contraction in Q4 was less than forecast...
with a buildup of unsold goods "cushioning" the blow. Under the sheets...
Largest contraction since Q1 1982; 1st back to back contraction since 1991.
Unadjusted for inflation, GDP shrank at a 4.1% pace, the most since Q1 of 1958.
Inventories grew at a $6.2 billion pace in Q4, the first gain in more than a year. (Inventory increases actually count as a positive in the GDP calculation.)
This huge inventory build added 1.3 percentage points to the topline figure.
Excluding inventories, the GDP decline was actually -5.1%.
How bad? Business investment dropped at a 19% pace, the most since 1975.
Purchases of equipment and software dropped at a 28% pace, the most in a half century.
Deflation in the Nation... The GDP price gauge dropped at a 0.1% annual pace in Q4, the most since 1954, reflecting the slump in commodity prices.
The Fed’s preferred measure, linked to consumer spending and excluding food and fuel, rose at a 0.6% pace, the least since 1962.
Q4 Employment Cost Index +0.5%, rising at the slowest pace in almost a decade in Q4 as companies limited wage gains and cut benefits.
Despite the deflation... Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the economy,
dropped 3.5% following a 3.8% fall in Q3. It’s the first time decreases exceeded 3% back-to-back since records began in 1947.
Jan FOMC rate & statement... unchanged at 0 to 0.25%. A lack of inflation could hurt economic growth??
"the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability…”
Consumer prices could contract this year, which would be the first decrease since 1955.
Which way is up? or Where are we going?
Look to where the rubber meets the road... Dec ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index -11.1%.
Marking the largest month-to-month reduction since April 1994. December’s drop was the third-largest singlemonth contraction since ATA began collecting the data in 1973.
Yoy the index declined 14.1%, the biggest year-over-year decrease since February 1996.
The Nattering One muses... as stated before, the bottom is NOWHERE in sight...
by this summer with 2.5 to 3 million more job losses and advertised unemployment pushing 10%; the full glory of this trainwreck will be realized.
Companies cut 524K workers in December, bringing total job cuts for the last 12 months to almost 2.6 million.
And the Beat... The slump in home construction accelerated, contracting at a 24% pace in Q4 vs a 16% Q3 decline.
The year-on-year rate is an abysmal minus 35%. (This engine created 80% of all new jobs since 2001.)
Goes On... New home sales set a new low with sales down 2.9% in November to a 407K annual rate.
This week... Nov Existing Home Purchases Dec. +6.5% at 4.74M vs 4.45M
Kool Aid guzzling realtors and hook in mouth media parrots jumped on the "good" news
as the "best housing report of the great housing slump". Under the sheets...median price -15% Yoy,
the biggest decline since records began in 1968 and probably the largest decline since the 1930's great depression.
Nov. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index... confirming the grim data:
steepening acceleration -19.1% year-on-year for the report's composite 10 index and -18.2% for the composite 20 index.
Month-on-month rates show declines of 2.2% for both indexes as 80% of all sales;
were previously foreclosed properties that had been steeply discounted at liquidation prices.
Home prices fell in 24 of 25 U.S. metropolitan areas in November from a year earlier.
Losses out West are dramatic to say the least: -32.9% Phoenix; -31.6% Las Vegas, -30.8% San Francisco, -26.9% LA, -25.% San Diego.
Nov. Radar Logic Report gives double confirmation: San Francisco Bay Area saw the biggest drop,
with the average price per square foot falling 36.8%. Phoenix had the next biggest decline, falling 34.6%, and Las Vegas slumped 32.4%.
These losses point to rising levels of West Coast foreclosures and banking failures.
Falling home prices point to rising foreclosures and even greater stress on the banking system.
Dec RealtyTrac Foreclosure filings provide more validation: Yoy jumped 41% in December to 303,410.
Chicago PMI Jan 33.3 vs 35.3... order readings showing continuing and severe month-to-month contraction.
The production index is especially weak while the employment index shows the largest drop of any index.
Durable Goods Dec -2.6% vs - 3.7% in Nov. Ex-transportation, new orders -3.6% vs -1.7% the prior month.
Year-on-year, new orders for durable goods -21.% in from -15.7% in November.
The contraction in orders is widespread and accelerating as all major industries posted declines except for electrical equipment and transportation.
And transportation would have been quite negative other than for a spike in defense aircraft +16.4%;
meanwhile... motor vehicles and nondefense aircraft dropped 5.2% and 43.6%.
Q4 GDP Deeper and Wider... Media Parrots: The 3.8% annual pace of contraction in Q4 was less than forecast...
with a buildup of unsold goods "cushioning" the blow. Under the sheets...
Largest contraction since Q1 1982; 1st back to back contraction since 1991.
Unadjusted for inflation, GDP shrank at a 4.1% pace, the most since Q1 of 1958.
Inventories grew at a $6.2 billion pace in Q4, the first gain in more than a year. (Inventory increases actually count as a positive in the GDP calculation.)
This huge inventory build added 1.3 percentage points to the topline figure.
Excluding inventories, the GDP decline was actually -5.1%.
How bad? Business investment dropped at a 19% pace, the most since 1975.
Purchases of equipment and software dropped at a 28% pace, the most in a half century.
Deflation in the Nation... The GDP price gauge dropped at a 0.1% annual pace in Q4, the most since 1954, reflecting the slump in commodity prices.
The Fed’s preferred measure, linked to consumer spending and excluding food and fuel, rose at a 0.6% pace, the least since 1962.
Q4 Employment Cost Index +0.5%, rising at the slowest pace in almost a decade in Q4 as companies limited wage gains and cut benefits.
Despite the deflation... Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the economy,
dropped 3.5% following a 3.8% fall in Q3. It’s the first time decreases exceeded 3% back-to-back since records began in 1947.
Jan FOMC rate & statement... unchanged at 0 to 0.25%. A lack of inflation could hurt economic growth??
"the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability…”
Consumer prices could contract this year, which would be the first decrease since 1955.
Which way is up? or Where are we going?
Look to where the rubber meets the road... Dec ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index -11.1%.
Marking the largest month-to-month reduction since April 1994. December’s drop was the third-largest singlemonth contraction since ATA began collecting the data in 1973.
Yoy the index declined 14.1%, the biggest year-over-year decrease since February 1996.
The Nattering One muses... as stated before, the bottom is NOWHERE in sight...
by this summer with 2.5 to 3 million more job losses and advertised unemployment pushing 10%; the full glory of this trainwreck will be realized.
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