Economic Reports 04/26/09

Leading Indicators March

The index of leading economic indicators (LEI), which is designed to forecast economic activity three to six months in the future, fell another -0.3% – the third consecutive drop.

Components show wide declines including indicators on building permits, vendor performance (which is quickening), the factory workweek, and jobless claims.

Existing Home Sales March

-3% at 4.57M; SFR -2.8%; Yoy -11.5%; inventory 9.8 vs 9.7 months; distressed sales are 50% of all sales. Good news? Median price +4.2%; however Yoy -12.4%.

New Home Sales March

-0.6% at 356K; Yoy -30.6%; YTD -38.2%; inventory 10.7 vs 11.2 months; median price Yoy -12.2%

Durable Goods Orders March

New orders for manufactured big-ticket items with a useable life of at least three years, also known as durable goods, slipped -0.8%.

Ex transportation equipment, new orders decreased -0.6%; Yoy -20.3%; while orders for primary and fabricated metals plummeted 3.2% and 1.3%, respectively.

Good news? Orders for nondefense capital goods ex aircraft, which is a proxy for business investment, rose +1.9% vs +4.3% in Feb vs -12.3% in Jan.

Good news? March inventories -1.1%; the third consecutive decline.

However, shipments -1.7%, which means there is still too much inventory in the supply chain for the tepid amount of sales.

Worse yet shipments of ex transport -2.4%; primary metals -6%. Q1 primary metals shipping -19% which means durable manufacturing orders have gone off a cliff.

Witness Yoy total durable goods shipments and orders have plunged -16.6% and -25.2%, respectively.

Initial Claims Apr 18th

+27K at 640K; 4 week MA -4K at 647K; Continuing unemployment +93K at 6.137M; 4 week MA +142K at 5.944M; both setting new records for the 12th straight week.

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