Economic Reports 05/02/09
S&P Case Shiller HPI Feb
The price index shows steep, uninterrupted contraction in home prices including out West. Comp 10 -2.1% 154.7 vs 158; Comp 20 -2.2% 143.2 vs 146.4.
Prices fell 4.5% in Phoenix in the month with Las Vegas down 3.6% and San Francisco down 3.3%.
And trouble appears to be building in the Midwest where Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago all show low-to-middle single-digit declines.
Good news? year-on-year decline at -18.8% for the 10 index vs. a long run of -19% and worse.
Motor Vehicle Sales April
6.9M vs 6.9M; Sales at now bankrupt Chrysler show severe month-to-month contraction. Imports sold at a 2.5 million pace, sizably down from 2.9 million in March.
Chicago PMI April
40.1 vs 31.4; slowing descent but still in major contraction. New orders jumped more than 11 points to 42.1.
Backlog orders also showed less month-to-month deterioration, at 36.9 vs. March's 21.3.
A faster rate of inventory liquidation, showing that businesses are still resetting to a lower level of demand...
and also a drop in prices paid which may be a surprise given this month's firmness in many commodity prices including oil.
ISM Mfg Index April
40.1 vs 36.3; a slowing of contraction new orders improved, at 47.2 for a 6 point jump from March. Backlog orders also improved, up 5 points to 40.5.
The customer inventories index fell back 4-1/2 points to 49.5 to indicate that firms think inventories are just right at other firms.
Employment picked up, rising more than 6 points to a still very weak 34.4.
Prices paid, despite firmness in energy prices, continues to indicate steep contraction at 32.0.
Factory Orders March
-0.9% vs +1.8%; a 0.8% decline in durables; a 1% decline in nondurables as inventories fell 0.8% to confirm that destocking is deep; shipments also fell 1.2%.
The look ahead at shutdowns in the transportation sector, which will begin to hit soon, clouds the whole outlook for what remains of the manufacturing sector.
Personal Income and Spending March
More pessimistic about the consumer sector than Q1 GDP report.
Now, the more current personal income report shows consumers having less income to work with and a pullback in outlays at the end of the quarter.
This indicates possible further erosion of the consumer sector in second quarter GDP.
Income -0.3% vs -0.2%; Yoy +0.3% vs +1%; Spending -0.2% vs +0.2%; Yoy -0.9%; Core PCE price index +0.2% vs +0.2%.
Initial Claims 04/30
A huge jump in continuing claims +133K to 6.271M, a record 15th straight increase. 4 week MA +131K to 6.076M. Initial claims -14K at 631K; 4 week MA -11K at 637K.
GDP Q109 -6.1%
The first quarter decrease was led by a $103.7 billion cutback in inventories, followed by a 3.9% annualized drop in government spending.
Housing continued to fall sharply along with business fixed investment. Speaking of spending...
Real final sales of domestic product fell 3.4% (GDP less change in private inventories) while...
real final sales to domestic purchasers declined 5.1% annualized (purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced).
Stagflation still ragin... the GDP price index jumped 2.9%, after a 0.5% annualized increase the prior quarter.
Year-on-year growth for real GDP contracted by 2.6% after dropping 0.8% in Q4.
Bottom line: A recipe for disaster... destocking continues; growth is contracting at an accerated pace.
The singular economic engine, housing, continues in free fall; consumer spending is declining and...
as layoffs mount and unemployment goes double digit, will decline further as prices of staple goods continue to rise.
The price index shows steep, uninterrupted contraction in home prices including out West. Comp 10 -2.1% 154.7 vs 158; Comp 20 -2.2% 143.2 vs 146.4.
Prices fell 4.5% in Phoenix in the month with Las Vegas down 3.6% and San Francisco down 3.3%.
And trouble appears to be building in the Midwest where Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago all show low-to-middle single-digit declines.
Good news? year-on-year decline at -18.8% for the 10 index vs. a long run of -19% and worse.
Motor Vehicle Sales April
6.9M vs 6.9M; Sales at now bankrupt Chrysler show severe month-to-month contraction. Imports sold at a 2.5 million pace, sizably down from 2.9 million in March.
Chicago PMI April
40.1 vs 31.4; slowing descent but still in major contraction. New orders jumped more than 11 points to 42.1.
Backlog orders also showed less month-to-month deterioration, at 36.9 vs. March's 21.3.
A faster rate of inventory liquidation, showing that businesses are still resetting to a lower level of demand...
and also a drop in prices paid which may be a surprise given this month's firmness in many commodity prices including oil.
ISM Mfg Index April
40.1 vs 36.3; a slowing of contraction new orders improved, at 47.2 for a 6 point jump from March. Backlog orders also improved, up 5 points to 40.5.
The customer inventories index fell back 4-1/2 points to 49.5 to indicate that firms think inventories are just right at other firms.
Employment picked up, rising more than 6 points to a still very weak 34.4.
Prices paid, despite firmness in energy prices, continues to indicate steep contraction at 32.0.
Factory Orders March
-0.9% vs +1.8%; a 0.8% decline in durables; a 1% decline in nondurables as inventories fell 0.8% to confirm that destocking is deep; shipments also fell 1.2%.
The look ahead at shutdowns in the transportation sector, which will begin to hit soon, clouds the whole outlook for what remains of the manufacturing sector.
Personal Income and Spending March
More pessimistic about the consumer sector than Q1 GDP report.
Now, the more current personal income report shows consumers having less income to work with and a pullback in outlays at the end of the quarter.
This indicates possible further erosion of the consumer sector in second quarter GDP.
Income -0.3% vs -0.2%; Yoy +0.3% vs +1%; Spending -0.2% vs +0.2%; Yoy -0.9%; Core PCE price index +0.2% vs +0.2%.
Initial Claims 04/30
A huge jump in continuing claims +133K to 6.271M, a record 15th straight increase. 4 week MA +131K to 6.076M. Initial claims -14K at 631K; 4 week MA -11K at 637K.
GDP Q109 -6.1%
The first quarter decrease was led by a $103.7 billion cutback in inventories, followed by a 3.9% annualized drop in government spending.
Housing continued to fall sharply along with business fixed investment. Speaking of spending...
Real final sales of domestic product fell 3.4% (GDP less change in private inventories) while...
real final sales to domestic purchasers declined 5.1% annualized (purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced).
Stagflation still ragin... the GDP price index jumped 2.9%, after a 0.5% annualized increase the prior quarter.
Year-on-year growth for real GDP contracted by 2.6% after dropping 0.8% in Q4.
Bottom line: A recipe for disaster... destocking continues; growth is contracting at an accerated pace.
The singular economic engine, housing, continues in free fall; consumer spending is declining and...
as layoffs mount and unemployment goes double digit, will decline further as prices of staple goods continue to rise.
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