Economic Reports 05/18/09
Trade Balance March
The overall U.S. trade gap widened to $27.6 billion and the numbers bode ill for manufacturing.
Exports dropped a sharp 2.4% while imports slipped 1%. The worldwide recession is cutting into demand for U.S. exports.
The drop in exports was led by a drop in capital goods excluding autos and also included declines in consumer goods and autos.
Imports were pulled down by decreases in industrial supplies and in capital goods excluding autos.
Year-on-year, overall exports slipped to down 17.4% in March while imports are down 27%.
TIC Data March
Foreigners increased their holdings of U.S. long-term financial assets, up a net $55.8 billion in March vs. $22.0 billion in February.
On the downside, foreigners were heavy sellers of agency debt, down a net $15.6 billion...
but much more importantly they remain heavy buyers of Treasuries, up a net $55.3 billion.
China increased its Treasury holdings by 3.2%to $767.9 billion. Japan also rose, up 3.8% to $686.7 billion.
Holdings at Caribbean banks, reflecting hedge fund interest, increased 13% to $213.6 billion.
Retail Sales April
Down -0.4% vs -1.1%; ex auto -0.5% vs -1.2%. Overall retail sales on a year-on-year basis in are down 10.1%. Ex auto worsened to down 7.7%.
Import & Export Prices April
Import +1.6% vs +0.5%; Yoy -16.3% vs -14.9%. Energy is again accelerating quickly with petroleum +15.4%, and finished goods continues to contract ex oil -0.4%.
Export +0.5% vs -0.6%; Yoy -6.8% vs -6.7%; Excluding a 3.6% jump in agricultural import prices, prices rose 0.3%.
Business Inventories March
Sales declines -1.6% continue to outstrip inventory destocking at the retail level -1%.
Empire State Index May
-4.6 vs -14.7; shipments improving as inventories destock -21.6 vs -36 and unfilled orders draw down slowed -10.2 vs -18.
Bad news, new orders contraction deepened -9 vs -3.9 while prices received declined -27.3 vs -18.
Industrial Production April
-0.5% vs -1.7%; ex auto -0.6%. On a year-on-year basis, industrial production in April down 12.5% and manufacturing is off 16% from its December 07 peak.
Furniture production -2.8%, while primary metal and fabricated metal products output fell 1.2% and 2.1%, respectively.
Capacity utilization set a new historic low at 69.1%; translated this means that 30.9% of all capacity has been idled.
PPI April
+0.3% vs -1.2%; Core +0.1% vs flat. 1.5% increase in food prices. Energy costs “declined” -0.1% with gasoline rising 2.6%...
proving again that PPI & CPI numbers are completely bogus. When will the Fed tighten?
CPI April
Flat vs -0.1%; Core +0.3% vs +0.2%. The 2.4% “decline” in energy costs was led by a 2.8% fall in gasoline prices as prices have been rising at the pump.
Food prices “decreased” 0.2% as food prices rose at stores. Bogus indeed.
Initial Claims 05/09
A reacceleration of job losses fueled by automotive layoffs. +32K to 637K; 4 week MA +6K at 630K.
Continuing claims 17th straight rise +202K at another new record 6.56M; 4 week MA +128K at 6.337M
The Nattering One Muses... Like we said before, you can bail all you want...
but they can't print enough money fast enough to get out of the hole that has been dug over the last 25 years.
Only when real estate prices return to historic norms (2.5X average household income)...
and 5 million durable manufacturing jobs are repatriated will this downspiral end.
At the earliest, this means coming out of the tailspin and trough sometime in 2013, if we are very lucky.
The overall U.S. trade gap widened to $27.6 billion and the numbers bode ill for manufacturing.
Exports dropped a sharp 2.4% while imports slipped 1%. The worldwide recession is cutting into demand for U.S. exports.
The drop in exports was led by a drop in capital goods excluding autos and also included declines in consumer goods and autos.
Imports were pulled down by decreases in industrial supplies and in capital goods excluding autos.
Year-on-year, overall exports slipped to down 17.4% in March while imports are down 27%.
TIC Data March
Foreigners increased their holdings of U.S. long-term financial assets, up a net $55.8 billion in March vs. $22.0 billion in February.
On the downside, foreigners were heavy sellers of agency debt, down a net $15.6 billion...
but much more importantly they remain heavy buyers of Treasuries, up a net $55.3 billion.
China increased its Treasury holdings by 3.2%to $767.9 billion. Japan also rose, up 3.8% to $686.7 billion.
Holdings at Caribbean banks, reflecting hedge fund interest, increased 13% to $213.6 billion.
Retail Sales April
Down -0.4% vs -1.1%; ex auto -0.5% vs -1.2%. Overall retail sales on a year-on-year basis in are down 10.1%. Ex auto worsened to down 7.7%.
Import & Export Prices April
Import +1.6% vs +0.5%; Yoy -16.3% vs -14.9%. Energy is again accelerating quickly with petroleum +15.4%, and finished goods continues to contract ex oil -0.4%.
Export +0.5% vs -0.6%; Yoy -6.8% vs -6.7%; Excluding a 3.6% jump in agricultural import prices, prices rose 0.3%.
Business Inventories March
Sales declines -1.6% continue to outstrip inventory destocking at the retail level -1%.
Empire State Index May
-4.6 vs -14.7; shipments improving as inventories destock -21.6 vs -36 and unfilled orders draw down slowed -10.2 vs -18.
Bad news, new orders contraction deepened -9 vs -3.9 while prices received declined -27.3 vs -18.
Industrial Production April
-0.5% vs -1.7%; ex auto -0.6%. On a year-on-year basis, industrial production in April down 12.5% and manufacturing is off 16% from its December 07 peak.
Furniture production -2.8%, while primary metal and fabricated metal products output fell 1.2% and 2.1%, respectively.
Capacity utilization set a new historic low at 69.1%; translated this means that 30.9% of all capacity has been idled.
PPI April
+0.3% vs -1.2%; Core +0.1% vs flat. 1.5% increase in food prices. Energy costs “declined” -0.1% with gasoline rising 2.6%...
proving again that PPI & CPI numbers are completely bogus. When will the Fed tighten?
CPI April
Flat vs -0.1%; Core +0.3% vs +0.2%. The 2.4% “decline” in energy costs was led by a 2.8% fall in gasoline prices as prices have been rising at the pump.
Food prices “decreased” 0.2% as food prices rose at stores. Bogus indeed.
Initial Claims 05/09
A reacceleration of job losses fueled by automotive layoffs. +32K to 637K; 4 week MA +6K at 630K.
Continuing claims 17th straight rise +202K at another new record 6.56M; 4 week MA +128K at 6.337M
The Nattering One Muses... Like we said before, you can bail all you want...
but they can't print enough money fast enough to get out of the hole that has been dug over the last 25 years.
Only when real estate prices return to historic norms (2.5X average household income)...
and 5 million durable manufacturing jobs are repatriated will this downspiral end.
At the earliest, this means coming out of the tailspin and trough sometime in 2013, if we are very lucky.
Comments
are you suggesting the Fed will tighten rates, despite stating rates will remain 'low' for the foreseeable future. Under what circumstances and when is it possible?
But its not a "mistake", its by design, the bankers goal is to debauch, this robs the public while they sleep.
Stagflation has been running 17%, CPI advertises 3% to "manage" inflation expectations, not tell the truth..
When will they raise? Pure Sarcasm, its really not in the Feds or their masters interests... no pun intended...