Market Observations 05/19/09

One-fifth of the 130 million square feet of big-box retail space vacated since the start of the recession was formerly occupied by Circuit City.

Credit conditions have improved, but remain impaired, companies continue to be forced to cut jobs to defend profit margins and real estate prices continue to fall.

Credit conditions are in complete disrepair as the shadow banking system has been dismantled.

The IMF estimates that European banks will need to write off a further $875 billion in bad loans by the end of 2010...

(versus $550 billion for U.S. banks, a figure comparable to the $599 billion announced by U.S. regulators after the tress tests)...

enough to wipe out all tangible equity before considering earnings over the period.

We view last week’s market pause as entirely justified and see further consolidation as more likely than a lasting extension of the uptrend at this stage.

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