Economic Reports 09/22/09
TIC Foreign Inflows July
+$15.3B vs +$90.3B; Net long-term flows were thin. Total flows, which include short-term securities, were -$97.5B vs. June's -$56.8B
Net foreign purchases of equities were strong though purchases of corporate bonds and agency debt fell. Net foreign purchases of Treasury notes and bonds were solid.
PPI Aug
+1.7% vs -0.9%; Yoy -4.3% vs -6.4%; Core +0.2% vs -0.1%; Yoy +2.3%.
Spiked largely on energy +8%; gasoline +23%; food +0.4%; while the core firmed moderately on higher motor vehicle prices.
CPI August
+0.4% vs Flat; Core +0.1% vs +0.1%; confirming PPI surged on higher energy costs (gasoline +9%) while the core rate held steady and soft.
Core flat on the cash-for-clunkers tax credits (new vehicles -1.3%) and housing -0.1%.
The recession has kept rents soft which also impact owners' equivalent rent which is based on actual rent for owner-type houses.
Industrial Production Aug
+0.8% vs revised July 1%; Utilization 69.6% vs 68.5%; meaning 30.4% idle capacity. Yoy basis, industrial production -10.7%. Motor vehicle component + 5.5% vs 20.1%.
But the really good news is that overall production excluding motor vehicles was still up a healthy 0.6% and manufacturing ex-autos was up 0.4%.
Empire State Sept
18.88 vs 12.08; New orders +6.5 to 19.84. Delivery times slowed in the month, at 1.19 vs. a long run of negative readings.
The gain in delivery time indicates congestion in the supply chain… however...
Shipments did moderate in the month, to 5.34 vs. August's 14.11. Inventories at a deeply negative 25 to indicate that manufacturers continue to destock.
Cost consciousness is evident not only in inventories but also in employment where the index remains in moderately negative ground at minus 8.33.
The report's price readings confirm building evidence across economic reports that prices for raw materials are rising but those for finished goods are not.
Business Inventories July
-1% vs -1.1% confirming Empire State as businesses continue to burn through inventory in an effort to keep costs down and profits up.
Year-on-year inventory rates are deepening, to -11.8%.
Next month's report for August would appear certain to fall steeply given the big cash-for-clunkers push.
With the exception of food & beverages, retailers drew down stocks across components.
Philly Fed Sept
14.1 vs 4.2; details in the report point to less strength. New orders continue to rise month-to-month but at a slower pace, 3.3 vs. 4.2.
Delivery times continue to quicken, not lengthen, at -8.9 vs. - 7.0.
Manufacturers in the area continue to cut back on their labor forces with the employment index showing greater trouble, at -14.3 vs. -12.9.
Shipments were up in the month but manufacturers used inventories to meet output needs. At -18.1, inventories betray continued cautiousness.
Unfilled orders continue to decline and the six-month general outlook shows less optimism.
Price readings, as in similar reports, continue to show rising input pressures but no pricing power for finished goods.
Prices paid + 5 to 14.9 but prices received -9 points to -10.6.
Housing Market Index Sept
19 vs 18; a 3rd straight increase as prices continue to decline. Out of the woods? Not by any means according to the starts & permits report.
Housing Starts & Permits Aug
A disaster, with July starts revised to -0.2%.
Starts +1.5% at 598K; Yoy -29.6%; YTD -44%; SFR -3%; Yoy -21.7%; YTD – 37.4%
Permits +2.7% at 579K; Yoy -32.4%; YTD -43.3%; SFR -0.2%; Yoy -15.7%; YTD -33%
Initial Jobless Claims 09/12
Improvement -12K at 545K; 4 week MA -8.75K at 563K; However, Continuing claims +129K at 6.23M; 4 week MA -5.5K at 6.180M
+$15.3B vs +$90.3B; Net long-term flows were thin. Total flows, which include short-term securities, were -$97.5B vs. June's -$56.8B
Net foreign purchases of equities were strong though purchases of corporate bonds and agency debt fell. Net foreign purchases of Treasury notes and bonds were solid.
PPI Aug
+1.7% vs -0.9%; Yoy -4.3% vs -6.4%; Core +0.2% vs -0.1%; Yoy +2.3%.
Spiked largely on energy +8%; gasoline +23%; food +0.4%; while the core firmed moderately on higher motor vehicle prices.
CPI August
+0.4% vs Flat; Core +0.1% vs +0.1%; confirming PPI surged on higher energy costs (gasoline +9%) while the core rate held steady and soft.
Core flat on the cash-for-clunkers tax credits (new vehicles -1.3%) and housing -0.1%.
The recession has kept rents soft which also impact owners' equivalent rent which is based on actual rent for owner-type houses.
Industrial Production Aug
+0.8% vs revised July 1%; Utilization 69.6% vs 68.5%; meaning 30.4% idle capacity. Yoy basis, industrial production -10.7%. Motor vehicle component + 5.5% vs 20.1%.
But the really good news is that overall production excluding motor vehicles was still up a healthy 0.6% and manufacturing ex-autos was up 0.4%.
Empire State Sept
18.88 vs 12.08; New orders +6.5 to 19.84. Delivery times slowed in the month, at 1.19 vs. a long run of negative readings.
The gain in delivery time indicates congestion in the supply chain… however...
Shipments did moderate in the month, to 5.34 vs. August's 14.11. Inventories at a deeply negative 25 to indicate that manufacturers continue to destock.
Cost consciousness is evident not only in inventories but also in employment where the index remains in moderately negative ground at minus 8.33.
The report's price readings confirm building evidence across economic reports that prices for raw materials are rising but those for finished goods are not.
Business Inventories July
-1% vs -1.1% confirming Empire State as businesses continue to burn through inventory in an effort to keep costs down and profits up.
Year-on-year inventory rates are deepening, to -11.8%.
Next month's report for August would appear certain to fall steeply given the big cash-for-clunkers push.
With the exception of food & beverages, retailers drew down stocks across components.
Philly Fed Sept
14.1 vs 4.2; details in the report point to less strength. New orders continue to rise month-to-month but at a slower pace, 3.3 vs. 4.2.
Delivery times continue to quicken, not lengthen, at -8.9 vs. - 7.0.
Manufacturers in the area continue to cut back on their labor forces with the employment index showing greater trouble, at -14.3 vs. -12.9.
Shipments were up in the month but manufacturers used inventories to meet output needs. At -18.1, inventories betray continued cautiousness.
Unfilled orders continue to decline and the six-month general outlook shows less optimism.
Price readings, as in similar reports, continue to show rising input pressures but no pricing power for finished goods.
Prices paid + 5 to 14.9 but prices received -9 points to -10.6.
Housing Market Index Sept
19 vs 18; a 3rd straight increase as prices continue to decline. Out of the woods? Not by any means according to the starts & permits report.
Housing Starts & Permits Aug
A disaster, with July starts revised to -0.2%.
Starts +1.5% at 598K; Yoy -29.6%; YTD -44%; SFR -3%; Yoy -21.7%; YTD – 37.4%
Permits +2.7% at 579K; Yoy -32.4%; YTD -43.3%; SFR -0.2%; Yoy -15.7%; YTD -33%
Initial Jobless Claims 09/12
Improvement -12K at 545K; 4 week MA -8.75K at 563K; However, Continuing claims +129K at 6.23M; 4 week MA -5.5K at 6.180M
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