2014 World Cup Final

"We aspire to the Dutch fortitude and believe that if the FIFA "fix" is not on, in the end, the Orange will avenge their 1-0 fleecing in the 2010 Final to Spain."  


 

Not so fast, Joe.  There are no guarantees when teams play for a PSO and if they can't score from the pitch in 240', they are sunk.

Germany GA 4 GF 17 vs Argentina GA 3 GF 8; Much to the detriment of the game, Los Gauchos seem to be picking up where Maradona left off in the 90 Cup in playing for a PSO.

Question, if France can hold Germany to one goal and Algeria can score once and force 120' minutes, can Argentina do the same?  Perhaps.

"As we move to the next level, those advancing are survivors by the thinnest of margins.  As the stakes are higher, mistakes get amplified and players/coaches are less willing to take risks. Resulting in more 0-0, 1-1 results that lead to overtime and penalty shoot-outs.  Expect more of the same."

What do Colombia, France, Costa Rica, Switzerland, Belgium and the Netherlands have in common?  

Their teams played conservatively and were eliminated, the latter three by Argentina in the knock out rounds.

Germany have scored 17 goals, take away three (Neymar, Silva) to make the Brazil final 4-1 and you still have 14 goals scored vs...

Brazil; France; Algeria; USA; Ghana; Portugal.  Hardly a conservative offense.

The German backline has given up 4 goals; Ghana (2); Algeria (1); and a charity goal to Brazil.

The Germans fear no one and will not be as conservative as those teams were...

resulting in Los Gauchos anemic offense putting more pressure on the Argentine backline which has allowed 3 goals; Bosnia (1); Nigeria (2).

How anemic?  In the knockout rounds (Switzerland, Belgium, Netherlands), Argentina have scored 1 goal from the pitch... 

in the last 202' and 2 in the last 330'. In the tournament, excluding the 3-2 win vs Nigeria...

Los Gauchos have managed the following goals from the pitch:   65' vs Bosnia; 91' vs Iran; 118' vs Switzerland; 8' vs Belgium...

for a total of two regulation time goals in 5 games and 510 minutes.

Did the German's spend themselves in scoring seven goals against Brazil?  

Probably not, and to make up for any drain, the Germans played 90' vs Argentinas 120' and have an additional day's rest. 

Head to head in WC: 4-1-1 Germany (2006 on PSO).  The last time these two met in a game that counted: World Cup Quarterfinal 2010. 

Both teams have essentially the same starting line ups as 4 years ago.  DFB have replaced DF Friedrich, DF Mertesacker, FW Podolski with DF Howedes, DF Hummels, MF Kroos. 

Los Gauchos have replaced DF Burdisso, DF Heinze, DF Otamendi, MF Rodriguez, FW Tevez with DF Garay; DF Zabaleta; DF Rojo; MF Biglia; FW Lavezzi. 

Bolded players are/were subs, all changes were youth movements with equal or better talent levels.  In addition, on Sunday, Los Gauchos will be without MF DiMaria, replaced by MF Perez.

Oops, forgot to mention the result in 2010 was Muller 3'; Klose 68'; Friedrich 74'; Klose 89',  a 4-0 German blitzkrieg.

Question, given the above, will Argentina play to win in regulation, or once again, opt for Russian roulette in a penalty shootout?  The latter probably.

As always, Argentina has a punchers chance, and we do not see their backline laying down for the Germans like Brazil's did.  However, where the Dutch did not test Los Gauchos backline, DFB will.

Fact:  No European side has won the Cup on the other side of the pond.  In 2010, Spain became the 1st to win off the Continent.

The only way we see Los Gauchos besting DFB is by stuffing the box with eight, as they did vs Holland and awaiting the Russian roulette of a PSO.

If both teams play to win in regulation, we see Die Mannschaft running away with this match probably 3-0 or 4-1.