2016 NFL Playoffs Divisional
Warm ups: Week 8 we went ATS 7-6-1; Week 16 ATS 5-1
Wild Card Week - We took all the road teams ATS and SU. Lines have been updated to reflect game time pricing as per oddsshark.com. Line shift: PIT opened +1 and was a -1.5 game time favorite which covered.
KC 30 -3 @ HOU 0 ATS 1-0; SU 1-0
PIT 18 -1.5 @ CIN 16 ATS 2-0; SU 2-0
SEA 10 -4.5 @ MIN 9 ATS 2-1; SU 3-0
GB 35 +1.5 @ WAS 18 ATS 3-1; SU 4-0
ATS 3-1 and SU 4-0; Not a bad start to the playoffs
Divisional Playoff
Last week a first in NFL history, all four playoff road teams won. This week, those winners are now on the road for a 2nd straight week and they are all dogs.
KC @ NE -5 OU 43
This game is problematic. 12-5 Chefs #3 rush YPC, they run it, but 3.9YPC away. 12-4 Pats #30 ground YPG and #5 pass YPG, they throw it. Is this where the game will be won or lost? KC #30 Pass YPG vs NE #17 Pass D. Chefs should be able to pass if they need to. Or here? NE #7 pass YPA vs KC #4 pass D YPA, #4 sacks 47. NE can't run and Brady will be pressured, will he make mistakes? TE Gronk is knicked, WR Edelman is back after 8 wks, will Taylor Jones wonder onto the field shirtless and disoriented?
After a 5 game losing streak, RB Charles out for the season, Chefs on a 11 game tear. Last time out Sept 2014 @ KC 41- NE 14, a rare humiliation. Pats started 10-0, finished 2-4, not a good omen for repeating. Only 3 SB winners with losing record last 5 games 06IND; 09NO; 12BAL. NE lost their last two, even worse, only 67GB (2); 09NO (3) lost out and won the SB. However, good teams, especially Belichick teams, don't lose 3 straight.
Will they? That hasn't happened since 2002 plus NE 14-3 in home playoff games with 4 SB winner Brady. The key to this game, ground control to Major TOM. Ground control: If NE<50 and="" kc="">100; since 2000 NE 3-7 in such games. Major TOM (turn over margin): since 2000 @ home NE<=-1 TOM 19-19 in such games. Least turnovers, NE #1 (14), KC #2 (15). Creating turnovers on defense, NE #22 (21); KC #5 (29). Weather: 30's, possible rain.
On a neutral field, KC would be -2, NE getting +4 for home field means they should only be -2 by our line, are they overpriced -5? Yes, give me just one step mister. If the Chefs control the rock, and perhaps get +1 TOM, they rock the casbah and the boat. We gotta go with who is looking stronger, so out on that seemingly improbable ledge we go. Pick SU and ATS KC +5
GB @ ARZ -7 OU 49.5
This is the easy game. Dec 22nd 11-6 GB got pasted 38-8 by the 13-3 Cards who are the most balanced team in the NFL. Mr. Rodgers threw for 77 yds vs the #8 pass D YPG while being sacked NINE times as the Pack was held to 178yds with 4 TO's. RT Bulaga was out and is back this time. Will McCarthy post that box score on the GB locker room wall? You bet.
The Cards might not have to throw much with #8 YPG ground game vs the Packers #21 YPG and #29 YPC run D. The Pack started 6-0 and finished 4-6, while the Cards went 10-1. On a neutral field, ARZ would be -7, getting +4 for home field puts them -11, by our line their bargain priced at -7.
The Cards still stinging from an atypical Wk 17 36-6 home lackluster drubbing by nemesis SEA, are rested and are anything but the DC Weak-Skins. ARZ might not win by 30 this time, but they should win and cover. Is there a win in the Cards Pick SU and ATS ARZ -7.
SEA @ CAR -2.5 OU 44
This game is problematic. Were it not for a last second shank by Vikes kicker Walsh, the Squawks might be at home watching the playoffs on TV this week. Week 6 the 15-1 Panthers had their coming out party overcoming a 9pt 4Q deficit on the road, accented by Newton hitting TE Olsen with under 34 seconds for a 26 yd TD to shock the 11-6 Squawks 27-23 .
Both ground games and D's are solid, CAR #1 TO diff +20 . Weak points? Panthers strength of schedule is suspect. Away SEA gets less sacks which should work to Newton's advantage with RB Stewart returning. Unlike last week, a rested SEA Beast mode RB Lynch made the trip and should play. Last team with the best record to win SB? 2003 Pats.
Wilson is a SB winner, rises to the occasion in the playoffs and should be able to pass vs CAR #11 Pass D YPG which lost two of their top three CB's to injury - Benwikere and Tillman. In their last six games, Squawks D has allowed 3 TD drives and 10ppg; excepting nemesis STL (2L) 23 pts; they have allowed 41 pts. Last six road games, SEA have given up one offensive TD. Last Weather: 30-40, possible snow.
Expect an unholy physical war ala 1970 DAL@DET or 1984 LA Raiders@CHI. On a neutral field, SEA would be -3, getting +4 for home field puts a rested CAR at -1 by our line, over the road weary Squawks. By a frogs hair so we go to some history. Since 2012 with Wilson, SEA as a PK or road dog, 4-7 SU 6-3-2 ATS.
In their last 5, CAR crawled by NO 41-38, NYG 38-35 and lost to ATL 20-13, all on the road and could easily be 2-3 vs dubious competition coming into this. I gotta go with who is looking stronger, especially the D which wins championships. Pick SU and ATS SEA +2.5
PIT @ DEN -7 OU 40
This game is problematic. Were it not for the Bills beating the Jets Wk 16 and a late Ben-gals fumble and 30 yds in personal stupidity fouls leading to the Steelers game winning last second FG, the Chefs or J-E-T-S might be playing the Buncos as PIT watches on TV.
Dec 20th @ 11-6 PIT, in overcoming a 27-13 halftime deficit to beat the 12-4 Buncos 34-27, a healthy Big Ben threw for 380 yds vs #1 pass D YPG with WR Brown 16 rec, 189yds, 2TD. Falling behind early, the Steelers rushed for only 23 yds vs DEN #3 rush D YPG. PIT #30 pass D YPG allowed 280yds for Brock Ostweilers best day as a pro. 5 of last 6, PIT D holding opponents to 20pts and under. Two weeks ago, in a game PIT HAD TO WIN, Ryan MALLET shredded the Steelers for 386 pass yds and a 20-17 BAL win. Go figure.
This time, PIT LB Shazier, DE Heyward probable with WR Brown, RB Williams OUT. Worse yet, Big Ben questionable, with sprained AC joint and torn ligament in his throwing arm. Doc can stick him with Toridol, but how the hell is he going to get it downfield mid to deep with zip or accuracy? Lacking vertical stretch, Buncos LB's and secondary can cheat up on the run and short routes. Doesn't look good unless Ben is sandbagging?
What of Old Man (39) Manning? Well rested and studying game film since mid Nov, 9TD 17INT? 4 INT in his last start and benched vs KC because he can't get the ball down the field either. Son of Archie is 5-9 in opening playoff games; 2-5 in divisional playoffs after a bye. Weather: 30-40, clear.
This game opened at DEN -2.5 before the extent of PIT injuries were known and quickly jumped to -7. With everybody HEALTHY, PIT would be -3 on a neutral field, DEN getting +4 for home, puts our spread at DEN -1. Buncos closed 5-4, and 2-2 while PIT 6-2 and 4-1.
Road weary with Big Ben unable to throw downfield, Williams out and the Bunco defense at home and rested, despite Manning, this could get real ugly. Last time 61 total pts, with the lowest OU this week at 40, what is the book saying? Defense. Is a banged up Ben and Brown worth -6 pts? Perhaps more. Pick SU and ATS DEN -7
Wild Card Week - We took all the road teams ATS and SU. Lines have been updated to reflect game time pricing as per oddsshark.com. Line shift: PIT opened +1 and was a -1.5 game time favorite which covered.
KC 30 -3 @ HOU 0 ATS 1-0; SU 1-0
PIT 18 -1.5 @ CIN 16 ATS 2-0; SU 2-0
SEA 10 -4.5 @ MIN 9 ATS 2-1; SU 3-0
GB 35 +1.5 @ WAS 18 ATS 3-1; SU 4-0
ATS 3-1 and SU 4-0; Not a bad start to the playoffs
Divisional Playoff
Last week a first in NFL history, all four playoff road teams won. This week, those winners are now on the road for a 2nd straight week and they are all dogs.
KC @ NE -5 OU 43
This game is problematic. 12-5 Chefs #3 rush YPC, they run it, but 3.9YPC away. 12-4 Pats #30 ground YPG and #5 pass YPG, they throw it. Is this where the game will be won or lost? KC #30 Pass YPG vs NE #17 Pass D. Chefs should be able to pass if they need to. Or here? NE #7 pass YPA vs KC #4 pass D YPA, #4 sacks 47. NE can't run and Brady will be pressured, will he make mistakes? TE Gronk is knicked, WR Edelman is back after 8 wks, will Taylor Jones wonder onto the field shirtless and disoriented?
After a 5 game losing streak, RB Charles out for the season, Chefs on a 11 game tear. Last time out Sept 2014 @ KC 41- NE 14, a rare humiliation. Pats started 10-0, finished 2-4, not a good omen for repeating. Only 3 SB winners with losing record last 5 games 06IND; 09NO; 12BAL. NE lost their last two, even worse, only 67GB (2); 09NO (3) lost out and won the SB. However, good teams, especially Belichick teams, don't lose 3 straight.
Will they? That hasn't happened since 2002 plus NE 14-3 in home playoff games with 4 SB winner Brady. The key to this game, ground control to Major TOM. Ground control: If NE<50 and="" kc="">100; since 2000 NE 3-7 in such games. Major TOM (turn over margin): since 2000 @ home NE<=-1 TOM 19-19 in such games. Least turnovers, NE #1 (14), KC #2 (15). Creating turnovers on defense, NE #22 (21); KC #5 (29). Weather: 30's, possible rain.
On a neutral field, KC would be -2, NE getting +4 for home field means they should only be -2 by our line, are they overpriced -5? Yes, give me just one step mister. If the Chefs control the rock, and perhaps get +1 TOM, they rock the casbah and the boat. We gotta go with who is looking stronger, so out on that seemingly improbable ledge we go. Pick SU and ATS KC +5
GB @ ARZ -7 OU 49.5
This is the easy game. Dec 22nd 11-6 GB got pasted 38-8 by the 13-3 Cards who are the most balanced team in the NFL. Mr. Rodgers threw for 77 yds vs the #8 pass D YPG while being sacked NINE times as the Pack was held to 178yds with 4 TO's. RT Bulaga was out and is back this time. Will McCarthy post that box score on the GB locker room wall? You bet.
The Cards might not have to throw much with #8 YPG ground game vs the Packers #21 YPG and #29 YPC run D. The Pack started 6-0 and finished 4-6, while the Cards went 10-1. On a neutral field, ARZ would be -7, getting +4 for home field puts them -11, by our line their bargain priced at -7.
The Cards still stinging from an atypical Wk 17 36-6 home lackluster drubbing by nemesis SEA, are rested and are anything but the DC Weak-Skins. ARZ might not win by 30 this time, but they should win and cover. Is there a win in the Cards Pick SU and ATS ARZ -7.
SEA @ CAR -2.5 OU 44
This game is problematic. Were it not for a last second shank by Vikes kicker Walsh, the Squawks might be at home watching the playoffs on TV this week. Week 6 the 15-1 Panthers had their coming out party overcoming a 9pt 4Q deficit on the road, accented by Newton hitting TE Olsen with under 34 seconds for a 26 yd TD to shock the 11-6 Squawks 27-23 .
Both ground games and D's are solid, CAR #1 TO diff +20 . Weak points? Panthers strength of schedule is suspect. Away SEA gets less sacks which should work to Newton's advantage with RB Stewart returning. Unlike last week, a rested SEA Beast mode RB Lynch made the trip and should play. Last team with the best record to win SB? 2003 Pats.
Wilson is a SB winner, rises to the occasion in the playoffs and should be able to pass vs CAR #11 Pass D YPG which lost two of their top three CB's to injury - Benwikere and Tillman. In their last six games, Squawks D has allowed 3 TD drives and 10ppg; excepting nemesis STL (2L) 23 pts; they have allowed 41 pts. Last six road games, SEA have given up one offensive TD. Last Weather: 30-40, possible snow.
Expect an unholy physical war ala 1970 DAL@DET or 1984 LA Raiders@CHI. On a neutral field, SEA would be -3, getting +4 for home field puts a rested CAR at -1 by our line, over the road weary Squawks. By a frogs hair so we go to some history. Since 2012 with Wilson, SEA as a PK or road dog, 4-7 SU 6-3-2 ATS.
In their last 5, CAR crawled by NO 41-38, NYG 38-35 and lost to ATL 20-13, all on the road and could easily be 2-3 vs dubious competition coming into this. I gotta go with who is looking stronger, especially the D which wins championships. Pick SU and ATS SEA +2.5
PIT @ DEN -7 OU 40
This game is problematic. Were it not for the Bills beating the Jets Wk 16 and a late Ben-gals fumble and 30 yds in personal stupidity fouls leading to the Steelers game winning last second FG, the Chefs or J-E-T-S might be playing the Buncos as PIT watches on TV.
Dec 20th @ 11-6 PIT, in overcoming a 27-13 halftime deficit to beat the 12-4 Buncos 34-27, a healthy Big Ben threw for 380 yds vs #1 pass D YPG with WR Brown 16 rec, 189yds, 2TD. Falling behind early, the Steelers rushed for only 23 yds vs DEN #3 rush D YPG. PIT #30 pass D YPG allowed 280yds for Brock Ostweilers best day as a pro. 5 of last 6, PIT D holding opponents to 20pts and under. Two weeks ago, in a game PIT HAD TO WIN, Ryan MALLET shredded the Steelers for 386 pass yds and a 20-17 BAL win. Go figure.
This time, PIT LB Shazier, DE Heyward probable with WR Brown, RB Williams OUT. Worse yet, Big Ben questionable, with sprained AC joint and torn ligament in his throwing arm. Doc can stick him with Toridol, but how the hell is he going to get it downfield mid to deep with zip or accuracy? Lacking vertical stretch, Buncos LB's and secondary can cheat up on the run and short routes. Doesn't look good unless Ben is sandbagging?
What of Old Man (39) Manning? Well rested and studying game film since mid Nov, 9TD 17INT? 4 INT in his last start and benched vs KC because he can't get the ball down the field either. Son of Archie is 5-9 in opening playoff games; 2-5 in divisional playoffs after a bye. Weather: 30-40, clear.
This game opened at DEN -2.5 before the extent of PIT injuries were known and quickly jumped to -7. With everybody HEALTHY, PIT would be -3 on a neutral field, DEN getting +4 for home, puts our spread at DEN -1. Buncos closed 5-4, and 2-2 while PIT 6-2 and 4-1.
Road weary with Big Ben unable to throw downfield, Williams out and the Bunco defense at home and rested, despite Manning, this could get real ugly. Last time 61 total pts, with the lowest OU this week at 40, what is the book saying? Defense. Is a banged up Ben and Brown worth -6 pts? Perhaps more. Pick SU and ATS DEN -7
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